Taking Spurs to win it all! (VERY BIG)

[Scott4USC]

Like I said in my Celtics/Pacers series thread, I was thinking of a big bet I liked. It was the Spurs to win the NBA Championship.

I got screwed on this bet because I waited too long. I should have placed it immediately after the Celts/Pacers series ended but I chose to wait and it cost me. I wanted to see game 1 of Spurs/Sonics and they blew out Sonics. I could have had Spurs +200 to win it all but now I got much less than that. :cursin:

Here are my bets.

$3,000 to win $5,250 +175 (Pinny)
$3,000 to win $5,100 +170 (Pinny)
$1000 to win $1,800 +180 (BetCris)
$500 to win $900 +180 (Bowmans)

$7,500 to win $13,050

As you can see, I cost myself $2,000 in potential winnings by waiting 1 day. :cursin:

These online sportsbooks have limits. Bowman was $500, Cris was $1000, and Pinny $3000. I decided to bet $7,500 because that is money I would have lost on my BIG Celtics wager (loser) to win series. I hedged in the 2h and lost $2,500 instead of $10,000. So basically I see this as free money and Spurs to win NBA NC is a great investment and will provide me great entertainment.

The only thing I am really scared about is Spurs players getting injured. (mainly Duncan/Parker/Ginoble) Good news is Spurs are deep talented team. Bad news is they prob. won't win it all if they suffer any key injuries. Suns/Heat/Pistons are really good teams. So injuries obviously are something I am afraid of but its gambling and I will gamble Spurs will not lose a series because of injuries.

Some highlight points why I like the Spurs

*Spurs are the best defensive team in the NBA. Defense wins championships. They have 3-4 big men to throw at teams. They play team defense really well and have maybe the best perimeter defensive player in NBA (Bowen).

*Spurs are a veteran/experienced team. Very important in the playoffs. Only veteran/experienced team Spurs might face is Detroit, and that would be in the finals!

*Spurs beat the hottest team in the NBA in 1st round despite losing game 1. Won 4 straight against Denver. Denver is young extremely athletic team and Spurs took them apart. I think it says a lot when you beat the hottest team in the NBA in 5 games. Major plus!

*Spurs create matchup problems with teams. They have 3-4 big men, mainly Duncan. They have super fast PG Parker. Spurs have Ginoble who is a terror and the most under-rated superstar in the NBA. He is one of the few NBA players that will attack the basket instead of settling for outside shot. That is 3 huge scoring threats and mismatches Spurs create on teams.

*On defense they are the best and what I like most is they have Bruce Bowen. This guy might be the best perimeter defensive player in the NBA. So Spurs can take out or very least give the best offensive player on opposing team fits. Bowen gets the job done. PERIOD!

*This is a team. They play as a team and all players put winning first. Example is Ginoble coming from bench. Coaching is great and players are out there to win! They make the extra pass and run the right plays. No me first attitudes and they execute there game plans. In Denver series Duncan was either having bad game or foul trouble and Spurs still came through as a team. Spurs know they can win Duncan having bad game or in foul trouble.
Very impressive! As far as I can tell, Duncan looks to be getting healthier each and every day and his game is also getting better and more consistent!

Spurs should beat Sonics, especially up 1-0 in series. The sooner this series is over the more rest Spurs get and less likely of potential injury.

Spurs will face either Dallas or Suns in next round. Will be TOUGH matchup either way, but both teams are vulnerable. I am hoping Dallas beats Suns and that is a realistic probability. I do know that this series will prob. go 6 or 7 games and both teams should be TIRED and WORN out. Small advantage to Spurs. Spurs proved in the Denver series they can play, stop and defend a team who likes to run. Denver was the hottest team in NBA in 2h. If Suns get pass Dallas, they will have beaten 2 teams that don't play the defense like the Spurs. It will be major advantage to Spurs and surprise to Suns!

If I am fortunate enough that the Spurs make it to the finals, they will have a tough task. I am hoping Spurs play HEAT instead of Detroit. Both teams would be a challenge. IMO neither team is better than the Spurs but both are good enough to beat them. Detroit/Miami series would be great series and prob. wear out BOTH teams.

I always could hedge this bet as the playoffs go on. I am pretty sure (minus any injuries) the Spurs would be favorites to win every series.

I took Lakers HUGE over Pistons last year in finals. I hedged my bet and took Pistons to win in exactly 5 games and Pistons to win in exactly 6 games. So if Spurs make it to finals, I will EASILY be able to buy my bet back or cut my losses because I had Lakers -500 in that series and I bought most of my bet back and took small loss. This year I will have Spurs +175 going into finals so be much easier to hedge or cut my losses. Hopefully I am lucky enough and spurs make it to finals AND spurs win it without me sweating bullets on how to save my $$$.

My plan all along was to take the 5k I won on Celts/Pacers series and put it all on Spurs to win west at -102 at pinny. Well celts series went way too long (than I projected) and the Spurs to win west line eventually went to -130, -140, -150, now its -170. So now I am changing my plan and taking more risk but more reward for Spurs to win NBA Championship. But I much rather have Spurs to win west at -102 (pinny). So thanks to celts losing in 7 games I got screwed in losing 2.5k AND missing out on this great bet. Double whammy!

GO SPURS AND STAY INJURY FREE!

 

[RexBudler]

I like the Spurs also. Gl to you

 

[Scott4USC]

Thanks Rex!

I forgot to mention that I also have $750 to win $1,520 (betcris) on Spurs to win NBA Championship that I posted and placed half way in the season.

Total Spurs bet:

$8,250 to win $14,570

 

[DIRTY Diapers]

I like the Spurs too... I think Detroit could give them a run for their money... But am considering placing a future with the Spurs. GL

 

[spits]

Scott,

You might also want to look at Detroit +140 to win the Eastern Conference. Good value in my opinion.

 

[maverick2112]

Scott........dont you think it would have paid better to just bet

Spurs....vs Dallas or Phoenix...........then rollover

Spurs vs Mia or Det..............would'nt it pay better than +1.70????

Assuming they play the favorites......


I also like the Spurs a little but with good teams like Det Mia and Phoenix still alive.........+1.70 seems pretty low to me.........after winning gm 1 and beating Denver.......scenarios that were expected.......the linemaker sure is making you pay a premium to bet SA without HCA against Phoe or Miami......

 

[Scott4USC]

spits

I agree Detroit +140 to win East is great bet. Right now I am just focused on Spurs. But I def. agree with Detroit winning east. I am hoping Miami wins the East to play Spurs.


maverick2112

Usually what you just said works out the best and might even be the safest way to do things. But I think it would only work if Spurs were to be -200 or less to win each series. They could be -300 or -400 favorites. Not all sportsbooks offer series winners and they have limits. Tough to do. But I prob. win more doing it your way because Suns and Mimi/Det. are solid teams so Spurs won't be big fav. But I can't say I be 100% positive to make more $$$.

As for home court advantage. I am a believer that the HCA is bogus. It is only valuable if the series goes 7 games.

I would rather play away 1st 2 games and then come home for games 3 & 4. Especially if I am a very good team like the Spurs.

Game 1 is usually a feel em out type game and upsets can happen. Getting used to each other and start seeing what mismatches each team has. As for the Spurs case, it is pretty difficult to beat the Spurs 2 games in a row. So it is likely Spurs will win 1 of the first 2. Then Spurs get home court advantage.

I only think home court advantage is good if the series goes 7 games. Otherwise I rather be the visiting team. So I am happy Spurs don't get home court advantage against Suns and Heat, unless series goes 7 games.

 

[Bombs]

Scott, you have made some great futures wagers in the past. This is a terrible wager. This Spurs team is hugely overrated at this price. There is absolutely no reason they should be a shorter price than Phoenix, Detroit, or Miami. The Suns will beat them, I will be going with a huge play if we see the matchup.

There is this idea that this Spur team is filled with "winners" and guys who will "get it done". That they somehow have a "winning edge" over these other squads, and that their defense is just phenomenal. Really I only rate them as above average on the defensive end, and I wouldnt trust a team with Brent Barry and N. Mohammed in the starting lineup and Glenn Robinson now in the rotation.

I have been pretty sharp with the NBA Playoffs and with futures in the past several years, so I am not just blowing smoke out my ass.

 

[RexBudler]

I would say SA is better than just above average on defense

 

[Bombs]

I would say SA is better than just above average on defense

I wouldn't. There is no team in the NBA that is lock down on the defensive end other than Detroit. Spurs have too many holes, they do not shoot free throws well, and they will lose. Phoenix will outscore them and I don't buy for a minute that the Spurs will slow them down with D. When I think of the Spurs, I think of one word - soft. Maybe I am delusional, but thats what everyone said when I cashed the Pistons left and right last year.

 

[maverick2112]

I wouldn't. There is no team in the NBA that is lock down on the defensive end other than Detroit. Spurs have too many holes, they do not shoot free throws well, and they will lose. Phoenix will outscore them and I don't buy for a minute that the Spurs will slow them down with D. When I think of the Spurs, I think of one word - soft. Maybe I am delusional, but thats what everyone said when I cashed the Pistons left and right last year.

Bombs ........who would you take right now to win it all right now at the current prices......

 

[Bombs]

Bowen will be an enormous liability against the Suns, and a decent sized one against Detroit. He is good to matchup on one player, preferably a guard. Unfortunatley, neither Phoenix or Detroit rely on one player with their ball movement and his presence will be minimized.

On the offensive end, he is a disaster. You think he makes up for that with his defense against Phoenix? No way.

 

[Bombs]

Bombs ........who would you take right now to win it all right now at the current prices......

Prices are a little short for me. I have the Suns at 9-1 from earlier in the year, although I might shade the Pistons a bit in that matchup, would likely hedge it.

I wouldnt have anything to do with this SA squad. At that price, its almost laughable. You dont make money in the long run betting short price futures.

 

[maverick2112]

I dont think you can absolutely discount the fact that this similar Spurs team also lost to the Lakers last year in 6.......after being up 2-0...........

 

[Bombs]

I dont think you can absolutely discount the fact that this similar Spurs team also lost to the Lakers last year in 6.......after being up 2-0...........

And that Lakers team was absolutely terrible. I am serious - terrible. Exposed for what they were.

 

[maverick2112]

Prices are a little short for me. I have the Suns at 9-1 from earlier in the year, although I might shade the Pistons a bit in that matchup, would likely hedge it.

I wouldnt have anything to do with this SA squad. At that price, its almost laughable. You dont make money in the long run betting short price futures.

I agree with you that at a price of 1.70........I almost would feel cheated taking the Spurs even if they do win it all. With the teams left ahead of them thats a terrible line.There are some tough teams left ahead. Really to me the Suns are a unknown.......hell at the rate they are going they may not lose a game.....They sure have been impressive so far........

 

[maverick2112]

Bombs..........So I take it you really like Detroit to win the East......

 

[Bombs]

I do like Detroit to win the East, but that price too is awfully low, and I'm not convinced this series against the Pacers is going to be a cakewalk. Miami will be very tough, and how tight that series is will depend on Shaq's health. If he is good to go, thats a coinflip at best in my opinion.

I guess I dont like Detroit as much this year as last year, although I still feel they are outstanding.

 

[Bombs]

Comparing Denver to the Suns in terms of a potential opponent for the Spurs is just laughable. You are looking at two totally different levels of quality. I really dont see how you can objectively look at the matchups on the floor between Phoenix and the Spurs and come up with the Spurs as having an advantage. I give the Suns the advantage at 4 of the starting 5 positions. And several by a long ways.

The Spurs do have Ginobli off the bench, but I am not sold on the rest of their reserves, the Suns have more quality depth.

Really, the series I am waiting for is Suns-Spurs, in all likelihood, I will hammer the Suns.

 

[RexBudler]

You do bring up some very good points Bombs. I think I am just gonna wait and see what things look like when these 2 get ready to match up