... so the parlay hits
---if anyone has one of those really strong gut feelings on a side, or total here -- please do speak up
just asking for your 2 cents to (hopefully) avoid including the parlay killer.
with practically everything staying under yesterday, you would expect a lean back with more overs today? so - with that in mind, slight nod to over(s)
prelim gut thoughts based, mostly on pitcher/team chases on and against
play
vs matsuzaka nym (mia)
on mia and over
on cws (1 game chase) -- [play on Quintana's next start]
vs az (just don't think they win, even though they just lost)
over phi/stl (1 game chase)
over bos/oak (1 game chase)
vs phi- -winners last 2 (chase)
on nyy - think kuroda is due
on wash -Strasburg -RL?
vs SD --winners of L2
on COL losers L3
selections for today - and reasoning behind
case for STL
going into WEDs night: Phillies (+167) ended a long run of poor showings as a big underdog, beating host Atlanta 5-2 Tuesday night. PHI had dropped 5 consecutive games as a dog of +150 or more, and scored a total of seven runs in those contests.
on weds, they won 10-5 = L7 as dogs of +150 or more 2-5 su. They follow that up with a 4-1 win as dogs of +155 (3-0 after previously 0-5 their last games of +150 or more dog)
last night's W gave PHI a 4 game wining streak - and an impressive 8-2 their last 10
stl is on a 2 game skid, after winning 5 in a row
will PHI go 4-0 as +150 dogs after previously going 0-5, as well as win their 5th straight overall?
case for the OVER 7.5
in their last 10 games STL has gone OVER just ONCE -- and pushing once (on total of 8) -- they have only 1 over and 2 pushes in last 14 games.
PHI has alternated O/U their last 8 games (under last)
Hamels and Wainwright slated to go tomorrow in game would think is better chance to stay under (vs todays game)
umpire Adrian Johnson's last 21 games calling balls and strikes the over is 16-5. Johnson will be behind plate in Friday's PHI/STL game
OVER 7.5 (-110) would like to buy half run, though cannot if taking side in same game
STL -161 -same reason^ with RL of -1 if total in same gamecase for WAS
gut tells me Strasburg is a play at -1 RL (-110) however has been very streaky in L10, winning 3 in a row, losing next 4, to then win 2 in a row, and follow by losing last. the whole year, has only given up 4 or more runs 3 times out of 15 starts (6 in a L, 4 twice -one ND [W] and another L). Last 11 has not allowed more than 3 ERs in any one game. even though I like WAS to buck their losing trend, as worst head-to-head historical matchups of any opponents against ATL - will pull off of this one, in newly flet concern for Strasburg actually pitching as well as originally thought.
career, Minor (ATL) is 0-3 when a dog of +150 or more
WAS -1 (-110)
case for mia
loss with Heaney - from solo HR doesn't sit well, that and this team only putting up 0 and 1 runs L2
Miami has won Henderson Alvarez's last 6 starts - going 8-2 overall L10 -- alvarez getting only 2 wins and 1 loss in those games.
he would seem due for a WIN - for him - even though Miami has won his last 6, which would stand to reason they should lose. do these ideas of pattern returning to the mean cancel each other out?
MIA has lost 6 of their L8
case for OVER 7.5
Mets 7 unders and 1 push last 8 and only 2-7-1 last 10 O/U
Miami has put up 0 and 1 runs last 2 games. -due?
of the 7 games between this year - totals are 1 over 2 pushes and 4 unders.
-neither of these teams have lockdown bullpens.
matsuzaka has pitched better than I think he is -- same could be said for colon (who also happens to be a play against next outing) --maybe switch to NL helped.
OVER 7 (-150) - buy off half run to give chance of push MIA -1 (+104) Alvarez
case for bos/oak OVER 8 (-115)
I actually thought that 7 was low for yesterday's matchup, but alas, was not...
boston has gone under L6 and only 1 over in L10
Oakland counters under L2, Over prev 3 and before that 4 unders and a push - for 3-6-1 L10
oak/bos OVER 8 (-115)
case for SF
winners of only 1 in their L9 - losing L5
on other side, AZ skoch better notching 3 wins in L10 (vs sf's 2)
az's collmenter has won, then lost his 2 starts this yr (both games went over). lincecum has alternated wins/losses last 4 -- losing last (going over L3)
think sf halts skid here - AND? stays under?
az slight fav at -113
case for the under 9 (-125)
sf is under L7 and only one over L10, however AZ has gone under L2 -- with 6 straight overs before that, coming in at 6-4 O/U L10
find realll difficult to play way out of a parlay, when as, if AZ puts up 5 runs (or 4 runs, need sf to win by 1 exactly just to push) -and took both plays, you cannot win
which of the 2 then? or (actually go with) both?
case for COL
losers of L3 - scoring only 0,2,1 - all losses to LAD -- but before that, had gone 5-0 (4-1 O/U)
Marco Estrada this year has been mentioned as one of more HR friendly pitchers... having surrendered at least one dinger in all but one start ((1,1,0,1,2,2,2,1,2,4,1,1,2,3)) though never pitching less than 5 innings, or less than 94 pitches in any start. I would guess that to be difficult and speak to -blandly consistent?
COL to hr here and win?
COL -109
nyy's Kuroda pitching ok-to-good last 3 outings (all losses), though almost snakebitten in no run support (L3 Unders), bad fielding.
gut just says NYY here - though cant wholly take as a play - but want to
NYY -1 (-102)
dodgers and or over?
do you think SD will win 3 in a row? -this more than anything
Haren winner of L2, after losing prev 4
L9 meetings have gone over the total
SD is 0-5-1 L6 O/U - due? -- LAD are 1-1-1 L3
haren is OVER L2 -- kennedy is UNDER L2
right now I would parlay
STL
stl O7.5
mia O7
nym O7
bos O8
COL
leaving 3-4 open spots....
strong leans
sf U9
mia - 1
was -1
lad
sf
liking to take scherzer (sunday?) to end 0-2 skid and rienzo to W tomorrow for CWS
---if anyone has one of those really strong gut feelings on a side, or total here -- please do speak up
just asking for your 2 cents to (hopefully) avoid including the parlay killer.
with practically everything staying under yesterday, you would expect a lean back with more overs today? so - with that in mind, slight nod to over(s)
prelim gut thoughts based, mostly on pitcher/team chases on and against
play
vs matsuzaka nym (mia)
on mia and over
on cws (1 game chase) -- [play on Quintana's next start]
vs az (just don't think they win, even though they just lost)
over phi/stl (1 game chase)
over bos/oak (1 game chase)
vs phi- -winners last 2 (chase)
on nyy - think kuroda is due
on wash -Strasburg -RL?
vs SD --winners of L2
on COL losers L3
selections for today - and reasoning behind
case for STL
going into WEDs night: Phillies (+167) ended a long run of poor showings as a big underdog, beating host Atlanta 5-2 Tuesday night. PHI had dropped 5 consecutive games as a dog of +150 or more, and scored a total of seven runs in those contests.
on weds, they won 10-5 = L7 as dogs of +150 or more 2-5 su. They follow that up with a 4-1 win as dogs of +155 (3-0 after previously 0-5 their last games of +150 or more dog)
last night's W gave PHI a 4 game wining streak - and an impressive 8-2 their last 10
stl is on a 2 game skid, after winning 5 in a row
will PHI go 4-0 as +150 dogs after previously going 0-5, as well as win their 5th straight overall?
case for the OVER 7.5
in their last 10 games STL has gone OVER just ONCE -- and pushing once (on total of 8) -- they have only 1 over and 2 pushes in last 14 games.
PHI has alternated O/U their last 8 games (under last)
Hamels and Wainwright slated to go tomorrow in game would think is better chance to stay under (vs todays game)
umpire Adrian Johnson's last 21 games calling balls and strikes the over is 16-5. Johnson will be behind plate in Friday's PHI/STL game
OVER 7.5 (-110) would like to buy half run, though cannot if taking side in same game
STL -161 -same reason^ with RL of -1 if total in same gamecase for WAS
gut tells me Strasburg is a play at -1 RL (-110) however has been very streaky in L10, winning 3 in a row, losing next 4, to then win 2 in a row, and follow by losing last. the whole year, has only given up 4 or more runs 3 times out of 15 starts (6 in a L, 4 twice -one ND [W] and another L). Last 11 has not allowed more than 3 ERs in any one game. even though I like WAS to buck their losing trend, as worst head-to-head historical matchups of any opponents against ATL - will pull off of this one, in newly flet concern for Strasburg actually pitching as well as originally thought.
career, Minor (ATL) is 0-3 when a dog of +150 or more
WAS -1 (-110)
case for mia
loss with Heaney - from solo HR doesn't sit well, that and this team only putting up 0 and 1 runs L2
Miami has won Henderson Alvarez's last 6 starts - going 8-2 overall L10 -- alvarez getting only 2 wins and 1 loss in those games.
he would seem due for a WIN - for him - even though Miami has won his last 6, which would stand to reason they should lose. do these ideas of pattern returning to the mean cancel each other out?
MIA has lost 6 of their L8
case for OVER 7.5
Mets 7 unders and 1 push last 8 and only 2-7-1 last 10 O/U
Miami has put up 0 and 1 runs last 2 games. -due?
of the 7 games between this year - totals are 1 over 2 pushes and 4 unders.
-neither of these teams have lockdown bullpens.
matsuzaka has pitched better than I think he is -- same could be said for colon (who also happens to be a play against next outing) --maybe switch to NL helped.
OVER 7 (-150) - buy off half run to give chance of push MIA -1 (+104) Alvarez
case for bos/oak OVER 8 (-115)
I actually thought that 7 was low for yesterday's matchup, but alas, was not...
boston has gone under L6 and only 1 over in L10
Oakland counters under L2, Over prev 3 and before that 4 unders and a push - for 3-6-1 L10
oak/bos OVER 8 (-115)
case for SF
winners of only 1 in their L9 - losing L5
on other side, AZ skoch better notching 3 wins in L10 (vs sf's 2)
az's collmenter has won, then lost his 2 starts this yr (both games went over). lincecum has alternated wins/losses last 4 -- losing last (going over L3)
think sf halts skid here - AND? stays under?
az slight fav at -113
case for the under 9 (-125)
sf is under L7 and only one over L10, however AZ has gone under L2 -- with 6 straight overs before that, coming in at 6-4 O/U L10
find realll difficult to play way out of a parlay, when as, if AZ puts up 5 runs (or 4 runs, need sf to win by 1 exactly just to push) -and took both plays, you cannot win
which of the 2 then? or (actually go with) both?
case for COL
losers of L3 - scoring only 0,2,1 - all losses to LAD -- but before that, had gone 5-0 (4-1 O/U)
Marco Estrada this year has been mentioned as one of more HR friendly pitchers... having surrendered at least one dinger in all but one start ((1,1,0,1,2,2,2,1,2,4,1,1,2,3)) though never pitching less than 5 innings, or less than 94 pitches in any start. I would guess that to be difficult and speak to -blandly consistent?
COL to hr here and win?
COL -109
nyy's Kuroda pitching ok-to-good last 3 outings (all losses), though almost snakebitten in no run support (L3 Unders), bad fielding.
gut just says NYY here - though cant wholly take as a play - but want to
NYY -1 (-102)
dodgers and or over?
do you think SD will win 3 in a row? -this more than anything
Haren winner of L2, after losing prev 4
L9 meetings have gone over the total
SD is 0-5-1 L6 O/U - due? -- LAD are 1-1-1 L3
haren is OVER L2 -- kennedy is UNDER L2
right now I would parlay
STL
stl O7.5
mia O7
nym O7
bos O8
COL
leaving 3-4 open spots....
strong leans
sf U9
mia - 1
was -1
lad
sf
liking to take scherzer (sunday?) to end 0-2 skid and rienzo to W tomorrow for CWS
