This is passed on directly from my morning VSIN email.
Tampa Bay Rays (96-66) at Oakland Athletics (97-65)
Bettors are in for a treat with two of the AL's best and most evenly matched teams duking it out for in the Wild Card play-in game with the winner set to face the mighty Astros in the ALDS starting Friday. Both teams have nearly identical win-loss records. Oakland has a better run differential (+165 vs Tampa's +113). And the Athletics have been dominant at home going 52-29 (4th best home record in MLB behind the Yankees, Astros and Dodgers). However, the Rays were the second best road team in baseball this season at 48-33 (trailing only the Twins).
Veteran righty ace Charlie Morton (16-6, 3.05 ERA) goes for the Rays while the Athletics counter with lefty Sean Manaea (4-0, 1.21 ERA). Manaea has been dominant in his five starts since returning from shoulder surgery in September. This line opened with the Athletics listed as moderate -140 home favorites and the Rays a +130 dog. A slight majority of bets are backing Oakland, yet we've seen the line fall away from the A's (-140 to -127) and toward the Rays (+130 to +118). This signals wiseguys grabbing the plus money with Tampa, causing market-wide reverse line movement in their favor. An added edge to the Rays: Tampa crushes lefties. They have a .272 team average against southpaws, the best in baseball. [my bolding]
The public doesn't know which way to go with the total but sharps have taken a clear side. The over/under opened at 8. Bets are split down the middle but we've seen the line fall to 7.5. In a vacuum, a line shouldn't move at all if the tickets are even. So we know this half run drop was caused by pros with an edge backing the under.
Tampa Bay Rays (96-66) at Oakland Athletics (97-65)
Bettors are in for a treat with two of the AL's best and most evenly matched teams duking it out for in the Wild Card play-in game with the winner set to face the mighty Astros in the ALDS starting Friday. Both teams have nearly identical win-loss records. Oakland has a better run differential (+165 vs Tampa's +113). And the Athletics have been dominant at home going 52-29 (4th best home record in MLB behind the Yankees, Astros and Dodgers). However, the Rays were the second best road team in baseball this season at 48-33 (trailing only the Twins).
Veteran righty ace Charlie Morton (16-6, 3.05 ERA) goes for the Rays while the Athletics counter with lefty Sean Manaea (4-0, 1.21 ERA). Manaea has been dominant in his five starts since returning from shoulder surgery in September. This line opened with the Athletics listed as moderate -140 home favorites and the Rays a +130 dog. A slight majority of bets are backing Oakland, yet we've seen the line fall away from the A's (-140 to -127) and toward the Rays (+130 to +118). This signals wiseguys grabbing the plus money with Tampa, causing market-wide reverse line movement in their favor. An added edge to the Rays: Tampa crushes lefties. They have a .272 team average against southpaws, the best in baseball. [my bolding]
The public doesn't know which way to go with the total but sharps have taken a clear side. The over/under opened at 8. Bets are split down the middle but we've seen the line fall to 7.5. In a vacuum, a line shouldn't move at all if the tickets are even. So we know this half run drop was caused by pros with an edge backing the under.
