tb@bos

[jderrida]

Well, I typically don't like OVR bets because you are betting that something must happen (ie. offensive production) rather than nothing will happen, but this one sticks out today between Rupe and Castillo.

The OVR between TB @ BOS in the last 6 this year is 4-1-1.

Rupe:12.6 era against BOS
Casitllo:10.8 era against TB

Ump:G. Davis has an avg. 10.37 runs/game
17-11 to the OVR
5-2 to the OVR when the total is 9.5
4-1 to the OVR when the total is 9.0

Also, a good friend of mine sends me reports on pitchers phyical cycles, and Rupe is considered a high acid pitcher:

High Acid Pitcher
Devil Rays Ryan Rupe Pitching Triple Up on the Road
Devil Rays Ryan Rupe 1999, 2000, 2001 Record
5 Wins 9 Losses ( 35.7 % Winning Situation )
Devil Rays Ryan Rupe has given up 95 Runs in 14 Games
Devil Rays Ryan Rupe has Allowed 6.8 Runs Per Game

April 6, 2001 Devil Ray Ryan Rupe Pitching Triple Up on the Road
Devil Rays Ryan Rupe 4 Red Sox Ohka 11
April 27, 2001 Devil Ray Ryan Rupe Pitching Triple Up on the Road
Devil Rays Ryan Rupe 2 Tigers Dave Mlicki 4
June 25, 2001 Devil Ray Ryan Rupe Pitching Triple Up on the Road
Devil Rays Ryan Rupe 8 Red Sox David Cone 12
July 14, 2001 Devil Ray Ryan Rupe Pitching Triple Up on the Road
Devil Rays Ryan Rupe 2 Expos Tony Armas 10
July 26, 2001 Devil Ray Ryan Rupe Pitching Triple Up on the Road
Devil Rays Ryan Rupe 3 Angels Ramon Ortiz 5
August 16, 2001 Devil Ray Ryan Rupe Pitching Triple Up on the Road
Devil Rays Ryan Rupe 5 Yankees Sterling Hitchcock 12

April 4, 2000 Devil Ray Ryan Rupe Pitching Triple Up on the Road
Devil Rays Ryan Rupe 5 Twins Eric Milton 6
April 26, 2000 Devil Ray Ryan Rupe Pitching Triple Up on the Road
Devil Rays Ryan Rupe 6 Royals Durbin 7
July 22, 2000 Devil Ray Ryan Rupe Pitching Triple Up on the Road
Devil Rays Ryan Rupe 12 Yankees David Cone 4
July 27, 2000 Devil Ray Ryan Rupe Pitching Triple Up on the Road
Devil Rays Ryan Rupe 8 Royals Durbin 7
August 16, 2000 Devil Ray Ryan Rupe Pitching Triple Up on the Road
Devil Rays Ryan Rupe 3 Red Sox Arrojo 4

I would therefore conclude, that betting on the OVR today is a good bet.

GOOD luck,
JD

 

[Cabo]

Jderrida, I too have broke this game down, and came the same conclusion!! This one goes over! This game and Colorado are my two big games in MLB. LOL..Cabo...

 

[wondo]

JD--

what are the expressions 'high acid' and 'triple up' that you use in your writeup?

thanks

 

[infinii]

Originally posted by wondo:
JD--

what are the expressions 'high acid' and 'triple up' that you use in your writeup?

thanks

Unless jderrida is from another site and is posting under a new name, he's copied the above verbatim from another handicapper.

jderrida, if you are Timothy then welcome to Madjacks. If not you should give credit when pasting other ppl's work (but don't post the site cuz that's a no no =)

 

[wondo]

JD & infinii --

I wasn't questionning the source -- JD did say that the system was given to him by another 'capper. That's not what I was getting at.

I was just wondering what it all meant because I was unfamiliar with the pH levels of ballplayers.

Wondo

 

[infinii]

doh I feel stupid, there it is buried in his post where he credits someone else. sorry jderrida.
The guy who wrote that stuff analyzes how health affects sports outcomes, everything from the amount of pain killer and antibiotics a player uses is taken into account...sounds very scientific.

 

[jderrida]

Well, it's the TOP of the 8th in a pitching duel--go figure. 30 men (13 for TB/17 for BOS) LOB so, far, and it doesn't look good on the OVR. Well, I am glad I didn't play it for more and it does shock me a bit, but I guess going 100% for the season is not probable--still (1-1 in the 8th is a cruel bettors joke!).

PS: Yes, Timothy Gager is a friend of mine who does the Health report. I usually combine his information and collate it into my final decision making on baseball totals. Since I am a professonal researcher myself, I hope I didn't look like a plagarist.

Anyway, I guess there's tomorrow...
JD
PS: GO OREGON on SAT!!!

[This message has been edited by jderrida (edited 09-20-2001).]

 

[Man O' Vegas]

I usually don't put stock in the number as far as decision making, but the number on this total was strange (9.5 -120u) for a game that's a dead over. Kept me off the total and on the side.

MOV

 

[wondo]

jderrida,

can you or your friend tim elaborate on his health system? either here or via email. i am unfamiliar with it.

thanks
wondo

also--
man o vegas -- that number was probably 9.5u -120 because the original number was 9 -110 and went up throughout the day.

 

[jderrida]

Wondo:

Basically, his system is quite complex, but very accurate when used in combination with trends (he does especially well in the NBA).
Infinii summarizes a part of his analysis, but he also uses a biorythm approach whereby he triangulates a player's phycial, intellectual patterns with given game situations. Many times, when a high acid pitcher goes to the mound there are patterns of wins and losses that correlate with predictions on game totals and sides. I would elaborate more, but I don't feel that it would do the system justice. Also, considering that I posted a loser, I don't want to ruminate over such a bad play.

Again, I typically play UND's because nothing is expected to happen, OVRS are dangerous plays, but I just had to play this one. Also, considering the state of the nation, trends and patterns may show (as this game did) statistical anomolies and abnormal variances in scores.

I think that betting home teams in all sports for the next couple of weeks appears to be a more rational and practical betting strategy, but gambling on sports outcomes can and will continue produce irrational ouctomes from time to time that make one just want to shake their head and laugh.

Well, I am going to bed, but I appreciate everyone's candor on this thread...

Sorry about the LOSER...JD


[This message has been edited by jderrida (edited 09-20-2001).]