Ten Most Wanted

[Valuist]

I see Beyer assigned him a whopping 110 for the Illinois Derby. I make my own figs using Beyer's pars for the Chicago tracks and I had been expecting a 102-103 type number. But a closer look at the chart shows some huge gaps in the race; from 2nd to 3rd, from 5th to 6th. Those kind of gaps usually happen in unusually fast races. I'll probably adjust and bump the winner's number to a 105 or 106, which makes him a legitimate Kentucky Derby threat.

Is it possible that the Illinois Derby could produce the Kentucky Derby winner two years in a row? Seems unlikely but maybe not impossible. I was a little surprised when I saw Pat Day flew cross country to ride this horse at Golden Gate a few weeks ago; he must've known more than we did about him. Lone Star Sky was much closer at the finish in the La Derby when facing the likes of Peace Rules, Kafwain and Badge of Silver. I think Ten Most Wanted will still be dismissed as a minor stakes winner.

Of course, the Wood, the Blue Grass and Arky Derby are still to be run but right now, IMO. the horses capable of winning the Ky Derby are limited to:

Empire Maker, Buddy Gil, Indian Express, Ten Most Wanted, Peace Rules and Dynever. I suppose you could put Atswhatimtalkingabout in there but I think he's still a hype horse so he'll be overbet.

 

[Edward Mush]

I am a believer

I am a believer

I have been watching this horse closely. He is for real..

 

[Valuist]

I think so also. If the Derby were right now, I'd key him and Empire Maker with 5 or 6 horses in the trifecta using them 1st and 2nd and 1st and 3rd. A lot can change this weekend but I think Ten Most Wanted has a great shot to hit the board at 12-1 or 15-1, which I think he'll be.

 

[Davoso]

V-

Any opinion on this weekend's Wood, Bluegrass or Arkansas?

Will be in Vegas and would love to hear your thoughts!

Thanks!

 

[Valuist]

I'm going to download the past perfs today as soon as Brisnet has them up. I'll try to post either tonight or sometime tomorrow.

 

[Davoso]

Any insight you can give would be appreciated. Heading out Friday AM so I will be checking for the information.

 

[Valuist]

Davoso-

I wasn't able to get a Form but I did download Hawthorne and Oaklawn's pps. Aqu looked like it had a good card but I'd advise passing the Wood Memorial. I will not be betting it. If you can beat Empire Maker, great. Frankel already said the Derby, not the Wood, is his main objective. But even at 80% he still may be good enough to win. But at 1-2 odds its not worth it.

The Arky Derby looks interesting. I just took a quick look at it and see around 6 capable of winning. I'm not all that sold on Eugene's Third Son, not from the extreme outside at 3-1 in the program.

As for Haw, I haven't finished it. Tons of speed in tomorrow's first race. Lots of good races with the Illinois-bred day.

 

[Davoso]

Thanks for the information. I appreciate it. Looking forward to getting some more input from this board as time goes on.

 

[royalfan]

Is Buddy Gil worth a play at 20-1?

 

[Valuist]

I don't think he'll be 20-1. I would expect 8-1 maybe 10-1. The Santa Anita Derby winner would never be that high. But if he was, he would be worth a flyer. He did bleed thru Lasix, but it was only a trickle. The trainer said he swallowed a lot of dirt during his last race, and the little amount of blood was probably a result of trying to cough out the dirt.

 

[Edward Mush]

Ten Most Wanted

I see he is around 8-1 right now. Looks like he will be one of the favorites as the race nears. Is this a good pick up now at 8-1? Thoughts?

 

[Valuist]

I think 8-1 is about right. I would say anywhere between 6-1 and 10-1.