- Oct 19, 2009
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Race 12:
Preakness Stakes - Grade 1 - 1 mile & 3/16
Another Triple Crown race comes around, and the horse this blog is most excited about ends up scratching the day of the entry. Endorsement was this horse for the Derby, and Hurricane Ike is the one for the Preakness. So once again, the selection is made without much conviction. One would figure that after having Super Saver rub it in over this blog's insistence of betting him to place, but insisting he could not win. After the win, i was all for seeing him as our next triple crown winner, even saying so in a few places. But then a huge monkey wrench was thrown into the mix when Pletcher decide to work him three furlongs. That simple act has forced this blog to look to another horse as he top pick. Nothing in the work itself was bad, but this blog has a policy about 3 furlongs, and it goes like this:
If a horse's first (or only) work after a race is at three furlongs, and the time between races is between 13-59 days, the horse is automatically tossed from the win slot.
Now why does this policy exist? It does because this blog has the ugly stat of 1 win from 143 starts when betting a horse that fits these conditions. This blog has stop betting them all together due to this stat.
So we move on to another horse. But who? None of the remaining new shooters excite me. That leaves me with only those who where in the Derby. Of the others who are coming out of the Derby, the pick is Paddy O'Prado. He has looked well in the interim, he draws the #10 again (always a plus) and might benefit from a change of tactics. This blog is under the assumption that one of the two Dale Romans horses, either Paddy or First Dude, will go to the lead to try and soften up Super Saver. If Paddy goes to the lead, he has shown he can cook and keep going. If First Dude is the one to go, Super Saver will have to prove that he can pass again, and Paddy will be right on his flank turning for home. #8 Super Saver is the 2nd choice, once again being the top choice for the place spot. He has done nothing wrong, but the work is enough to play against. If he wins, he will go to Belmont with the chance to win the sport's first triple crown since 1978 an Affirmed. The co-3rd choices are the ever unlucky (and ironically drawn in post #7) Lookin at Lucky, and the only new shooter to crack this list #5 Yawanna Twist. Lucky looks to avoid another rough trip, as he was mauled in the Derby. Yawanna Twist has been off 6 weeks, and with a deceivingly good run in the Illinois Derby plus a steady stream of works, this son of Yonaguska could give his sire another placing in a triple crown race, after Musket Man ran third in both the Derby and Preakness last year.
Selections:
#10 Paddy O'Prado
#8 Super Saver
#1 Lookin at Lucky/#4 Yawanna Twist
There they are. I wish everyone good luck and hopefully this blog will lead you to a life-changing score. Posted by tencentcielo at <a class="timestamp-link" href="http://givingmytencents.blogspot.com/2010/05/preakness-stakes-undercard-stakes-picks.html" rel="bookmark" title="permanent link"><abbr class="published" title="2010-05-15T00:20:00-07:00">12:20 AM</abbr>
Preakness Stakes - Grade 1 - 1 mile & 3/16
Another Triple Crown race comes around, and the horse this blog is most excited about ends up scratching the day of the entry. Endorsement was this horse for the Derby, and Hurricane Ike is the one for the Preakness. So once again, the selection is made without much conviction. One would figure that after having Super Saver rub it in over this blog's insistence of betting him to place, but insisting he could not win. After the win, i was all for seeing him as our next triple crown winner, even saying so in a few places. But then a huge monkey wrench was thrown into the mix when Pletcher decide to work him three furlongs. That simple act has forced this blog to look to another horse as he top pick. Nothing in the work itself was bad, but this blog has a policy about 3 furlongs, and it goes like this:
If a horse's first (or only) work after a race is at three furlongs, and the time between races is between 13-59 days, the horse is automatically tossed from the win slot.
Now why does this policy exist? It does because this blog has the ugly stat of 1 win from 143 starts when betting a horse that fits these conditions. This blog has stop betting them all together due to this stat.
So we move on to another horse. But who? None of the remaining new shooters excite me. That leaves me with only those who where in the Derby. Of the others who are coming out of the Derby, the pick is Paddy O'Prado. He has looked well in the interim, he draws the #10 again (always a plus) and might benefit from a change of tactics. This blog is under the assumption that one of the two Dale Romans horses, either Paddy or First Dude, will go to the lead to try and soften up Super Saver. If Paddy goes to the lead, he has shown he can cook and keep going. If First Dude is the one to go, Super Saver will have to prove that he can pass again, and Paddy will be right on his flank turning for home. #8 Super Saver is the 2nd choice, once again being the top choice for the place spot. He has done nothing wrong, but the work is enough to play against. If he wins, he will go to Belmont with the chance to win the sport's first triple crown since 1978 an Affirmed. The co-3rd choices are the ever unlucky (and ironically drawn in post #7) Lookin at Lucky, and the only new shooter to crack this list #5 Yawanna Twist. Lucky looks to avoid another rough trip, as he was mauled in the Derby. Yawanna Twist has been off 6 weeks, and with a deceivingly good run in the Illinois Derby plus a steady stream of works, this son of Yonaguska could give his sire another placing in a triple crown race, after Musket Man ran third in both the Derby and Preakness last year.
Selections:
#10 Paddy O'Prado
#8 Super Saver
#1 Lookin at Lucky/#4 Yawanna Twist
There they are. I wish everyone good luck and hopefully this blog will lead you to a life-changing score. Posted by tencentcielo at <a class="timestamp-link" href="http://givingmytencents.blogspot.com/2010/05/preakness-stakes-undercard-stakes-picks.html" rel="bookmark" title="permanent link"><abbr class="published" title="2010-05-15T00:20:00-07:00">12:20 AM</abbr>
