Tennessee/Raiders, a closer look.

[TheShrimp]

7.5 or 8 looks juicy on the fave there, especially after Raiders handled the Red Hot Jets last weekend and the Titans had to squeak one out against the mediocre Steelers. But let's look a little closer.

Raiders were a 5.5 against the Jets, so that's kind of like saying Jets would be -2.5 against the Titans on a neutral field. And, everyone was on the Jets with the 5.5. Where did all these dog bettors go? Where are all these guys in the newspapers and TV that finally discovered you can pick a dog?

Last week with PHI/ATL we saw a 7.5 with the #1 seed in the playoffs playing at home, with rest, against the #6 seed. Is there really as much, or more, disparity between the Titans and the Raiders as there was between the Eagles and the Falcons? I don't think you can honestly answer yes.

Titans have been in the AFC championship before. They've won it before (with Fisher, George, and McNair). They played pretty well against the Steelers, except for losing 2 ints, and 2 fumbles. They really out gained them, out possessed them, and out played them. That could have easily been a 30-10 game.

Meanwhile, the raiders played the jets 30-30 in TOP, 20-20 in first downs, 287-400 in yards, but Jets lost 2 fumbles and 2 interceptions. Watching that game, didn't you feel like a guy with more poise and experience than Pennington would have stayed with the Raiders in the second half last week? Didn't Woodson look REALLY bad to anyone else last week?

Now look at when the Titans played the Raiders earlier this year and got whooped palindromically, 25-52. Time of possession: 30-30. Yards: 430-464. First downs: 23-24.

The difference : McNair threw 4 picks and the Raiders were able to turn them into TDs.

That was a 7 point spread after Raiders came off a dismantling of the steelers and a BYE while the titans had dropped to 1-2 after losing at home to Cleveland.

OK -- if the Raiders go +3 in turnovers this weekend, I'll grant you that they'll cover the 8 points.

Since we can only expect the TO's to even out, give me the points, maybe even the ML, and go TITANS.

All comments, disagreements and agreements welcome.

Also, I'm waiting a few days to see if this thing climbs above 8. I think it might.

TheShrimp

 

[Blazer]

Shrimp

Shrimp

SHHHHHHH!!!!!, let everyone take the Raiders. My book is already @ +8. Knowing that west coast money is usually slower than east coast, I feel greedy. I want 9!<P>
We all know the closest parallel to the final score is the TO ratio. Tennessee gave the ball away 4 times (most in Pitt field goal range). Pitt threw 1 interception early in the game, which was long and almost like a weak punt. Tennessee dominated the game and if the final score of last weeks game was closer to 30-10 the line would be around 3 or at the most 5. <P>Remember the Titans...

 

[CWood97]

Remember the Titans......have those same lousy d-backs who can't cover anyone. And Andre Dyson may not even play! If Oakland protects their QB (which they almost always do) Gannon will methodically pick them apart.

Now that they are playing defense I think this Oakland team is as good football team the NFL has seen since 1994 (niners).

A couple other factors to consider:

1) McNair has a bad thumb. I know he plays with pain better than anyone, but a bad digit on a throwing hand can and will affect his velocity, accuracy and especially his deep ball. Look for 2 to 3 turnovers out of him.

2) Eddies confidence is shot, but Fisher will continue to feed him the rock. I layed the points and am happy to know Eddie will get the carries over Holcombe (who is a better back).

Also a question for you: What makes you think Woodson looked bad last week? (assuming you are talking about Charles not Rod) He had one penalty early vs Coles where he slipped. The rest of the game he had his hands on two near picks, nearly killed Flashlight boy and was breaking on the ball like the healthy CWood of last season. If you think any of the Titan WR's can beat Woodson/James consistently, I think you're badly mistaken. Wychek on the other hand can give them problems.

I see the Raiders by 10+, and also think there is a chance this could get really ugly.

 

[Blazer]

Mighty Might Titans....

Mighty Might Titans....

I'm not dumb enough to call for a lock or a moneyline bet just consider the line. <P>
These are 2 good teams that are meeting in the playoffs and the line is +8 (and movin' on up).<P>
The Titans secondary will be helped by a better pass-rush than they had in the first meeting of these teams. Oakland averages giving over 2 sacks per game.
1.)Mcnair's thumb is fine. He isn't some pretty-boy like Warner. <P>
2.) Eddie is a good back. I said good not great. Holcomb has gotten carries all season, just look at the box scores. The Titans best RB is still Mcnair, his legs and ribs are fully healed.<P>
Also question: I like Woodson, both of them, but the Titans have alot of weapons. Bennett, Mason, Mcareins, and Wycheck plus Backfield recievers will challenge Oakland depth. Remember this is the team that enterained the idea of bring Deion Sanders out of retirement until Marty Schotthiemer put and end to it. <P>

I would love 10 points in any Divisional Championship game. This is still the parody league we call the NFL. Blowouts are for college games like Miami and Ohio State.....oops bad example

 

[TheShrimp]

In my handicapping, I often compare spreads, not results. From that, I conclude whether a line is too high, too low, or just right.

As I said in the previous post, 7.5 is what PHI was over ATL, while OAK was 5.5 over the Jets, and someone wants to tell me that 8 is a sensible line for OAK over TENN. TENN has won 11 of its last 12, and while OAK has won 8 of its last 9, laying 8 points is what good teams do against bad teams.

Some, roughly, 8 point spreads from this year:
DET @ MIAMI (WK 1)
DALL @ HOU (expansion first game) (WK 1)
BUFF @ DEN (Wk 3)
DALL @ PHI (WK 3)
CIN @ ATL (Wk 3)
HOU @ CLE, WASH @ GB (WK 7)
ZONA @ SF (WK 8).
OAK @ ZONA (WK 12) <- TENN is as bad on the road as ZONA is at home???

Seeing a pattern? It's usually reserved for teams like HOU, DET, ZONA playing teams like MIA, GB, OAK. Not for teams who have won 11 of 12 games (including PITT twice, INDY twice, Giants once, Patriots once).

Sure, OAK could blow them out, especially with a good TO margin. Anything can happen, wouldn't you have taken SF +24 last week?

But all I can do is look at that big ole snowman, 8 , and conclude: it ain't right.

 

[Blazer]

Riding high

Riding high

:SIB <P>
looking at the line go up. Dare I say: Oakland is a "square" bet?

 

[Bobmac]

i'm on board with ya shrimp, tenn/philly parlay:grins:

 

[CWood97]

I can see your line of reasoning shrimp, just can't agree with it. When I cap a game, I look at matchups. Different teams match up differently. Some teams (like the Dolphins) match up well with the Raiders. The Titans do not.

Ultimately, a game comes down to who can block who, who can cover who, etc. I'l break down this one like I did Philly last week (which led me to the correct conclusion):

Raider front 7 vs Titan run game (factor in McNair's running): This is at best for the Titans a wash. Adams/Parella are achoring a DL that gives up 91 yards per game and only 73/per at home. Eddie will carry 15-20 times for a 2-3 yard average, like he normally does against good teams. McNair will get his 30-40. Thats expected.

Raider front 7 vs Titan pass blocking: Probably advantage Titans here but there will be some coverage sacks here (see below). Plus the pass rush did show some signs of life last week sacking Pennigton 4 times. Still advantage Titans, McNair will likely have time to throw.....but

Raider DB's vs Titan WR's: Someone really needs to explain to me why they think Bennett/McCareins/Mason are going to be able to get open consistently in this game. Woodson will take any one of these guys out of the game. gone, bye, seeya, don't bother looking his way steve. Tory James played great last week, and is more than capable. Dorsett can provide help over the top on any of them, and Rod Woodson can keep Wycheck under control.

to the other side of the ball

Titan front 7 vs Oakland running game: Wash here as well, Titans won't allow Garner to run wild, but he will get some yardage. The X factor could be Wheatley in th 4th quarter (looked great against the Jets).

Titan front 7 versus Oakland pass blocking: Yes, the Raiders give up 2.3 sacks a game, right about the middle of the NFL. BUT they throw the ball 39 TIMES A GAME. Of course they are going to get sacked now and then. The Raiders pass blocking is the best in the league, and if you have watched them play this season you know this. The majority of the time Gannon can look at three receivers before dumping off to Garner/Ritchie. The Titans get 2.5 sacks per game, 10th best in the league. They got two last time they played the Raiders. Anyone who has watched them lately knows that Jevon Kearse has been a shadow of himself, so he won't be the difference maker he has been in the past. Advantage Oakland here.

Titan DB's vs Oakland WR's: Who is going to cover Jerry Rice? Who is going to cover Jerry Porter? Who is going to cover Tim Brown? Who is going to cover Charlie Garner out of the backfield? The Titans simply don't have the athletes on the outside (or inside for that matter) to match up with these guys. If Tommy Maddox was half-arsed accurate last week he could have thrown for 366 instead of 266. The only pick Tennesee could come up with was due to Plaxico tripping over his own feet. Rich Gannon will pick these guys apart all day long. They are BAD. HUGE advantage Oakland here.

Special Teams: Neither team is dominant here, no huge advantage either way. Nedney didn't look to hot last week. Neither did Seabass. Mason can be dangerous on returns (moreso that the Raiders' guys). Very slight advantage Tennessee.

IMHO there are two things that could keep this game close:

1) Weather, though it looks like it will be really nice. (62 degrees partly sunny)

2) Flukey plays: i.e. Blocked FG for a touchdown, fumbled kickoffs, blocked punts, etc. These are things you cannot count on.


I know, 7.5 or 8 is a lot of points to lay in an NFL game (particularly one of this magnitude), but that chalk won't look quite so big if Oakland is up 14 going into the 4th quarter.


We'll see how it turns out, sure is fun debating in the meantime though

 

[gjn23]

c-wood, nice analysis on the game.

Something stands out about this Tenn team however, they just seem to get the job done. Much like NE last year, who wasn't great in ANY phase of the game except the final score. I wouldn't put anything past this team, even an outright win in Oakland.

 

[TheShrimp]

Fine, cwood. You did your X's and O's, but where'd the '8' come from? Why not 6.5 or 10.5? No one's picking a team to win SU at even money here.

How high would a line have to be for you to bet TENN? 10? 14? Did you set a line before seeing what Vegas threw out there?

Why were the Jets a 5.5 point dog while the Titans are an 8 point dog? Did that team that needed help the last two weeks of the season, with the first year starter, match-up better with OAK than the division winning Titans with McNair and George?

Have Raiders become that much better since last week, or maybe, just maybe, do those lines reflect the public perceptions and not reality?

Why was ZONA an 8 point dog at home to the Raiders? Are the Titans really as bad on the road as ZONA is at home?

ATL was 7.5 last week. Do the 1 and the 2 seed in the AFC have a bigger disparity than the 1 and the 6 seed in the NFC? After the 1 had the BYE?

 

[TIME TO MAKE $$$]

nice work Shrimp...

Going to wait for west coast $ to come in and raise the line to +10 hopefully!

 

[yyz]

I remember a banged up Packer team getting too much respect going to NYJ......POUNDED!

Still banged up, and still getting too much respect against Atlanta........POUNDED!


Tennessee???............POUNDED!

 

[TheShrimp]

Pound

Pound

Yes, Packers, squeaked one out against the bills.

they got pounded by the jets, and pounded by the falcons.

However, Tenn fishined pounding against 2 weaklings, JAX and HOU, but before that they pounded the pats, and the week before that they pounded the Colts.

We're not talking about getting pounded like the packers were getting. We talking about doing the pounding.

--

 

[Jhpga]

Tennessee is on a sreak right now coming in winning there last 11/12 games.But Im not to sure I would consider the 13-3 win against Houston as a pounding!!!!!!The Titans only managed a mere 253yds offense that day.But Vegas must think Oakland is alot stronger than tenn to post them as -8 favorites.I cant believe the line will go up.If anything I see it going to -7.However...Oakland is a more popular team to the public...so they might drive it up.Anyway good luck Titans fans.It should be a great game to watch and have alittle money on......

 

[yyz]

Tenn has a hurt qb and a hurt rb.........nuf said!

 

[CWood97]

To answer your question Shrimp, here is where the 8 came from:

16

That is the average Oakland margin of victory in their last 8 wins including two games against the Jets (both of which they dominated), and vs New England, vs Denver and at San Diego. Keep in mind that they did all of this (save last week) while their best and most important defensive player was either hobbled, or on the bench. When he came back healthy, SURPRISE, they held the "hottest team in the league" to 10 points.

If you can some how prove to me that Tennessee (on the road) is that much better than the Jets, then I will put my house, car and first born on the Titans. Until then I'll sit back a be happy knowing my money is on the best team in football.

And the the way, 7 was the original spread. 7 became 7.5 real quickly. This happened for a reason and Joe public doesn't bet on Sunday night when the line opens.

 

[yyz]

Actually, 8 became 7'

 

[Billy]

Shrimp, Tenn is spent.......down to the last drop.......they left
10 tons of effort on the field last week.......mean while the
fricken thugs had just what the doctor ordered.....raiders are
peaking, tenn is crawling.....this could and probably will get ugly
again, just like the last one.......not trying to get cute with you,
i actually fricken hate asshole davis.........but the facts are the
facts.......GL anyway......

maybe the under is a BETter BET........



The Raiders LOVE squeezing TITS..........

 

[Blazer]

R-E-S-P-E-C-T

R-E-S-P-E-C-T

Cwood, nice analysis. <P>
I don't agree, but interesting points. Let? look at the matchups your projecting. <P>


Raider pass rush is null and void. Mcnair and his thumb can run all day. Mcnair was Mike Vick before Mike Vick even showed up at Va Tech. He pioneered the beefy, elusive, running quarterback with a big arm (Cunningham was 2 out of 4). The Titans just got done with the #1 D in the league. How can you expect Oakland to dominate? Eddie and Holcombe will both carry for 3-5 yards per carry. That is the Titans. That is their game hard-nosed grinds it out running attack and then POW! A no-back spread formation. Like it or not it got them this far. <P>

Raider DB's vs Titan Receiving core: I would like to explain why Bennett/McCareins/Mason/Wycheck and the backfield are going to be able to get open consistently in this game. Woodson will take any one of these guys out of the game. gone, bye, seeya, don't bother looking his way Steve. I?ll even say other Woodson will cover another and take them out of the game. Gone, bye, seeya. You still have 3 more outlets to guard. Against the Steelers the Titans had several 5-outs sets. After the big 2, the secondary has a lot of holes. Zone or cover 2? Please oh please zone or cover 2 and Steve won?t even have to pass the ball the entire game. The numbers don?t match up as I posted in another inquiry this is the same team that entertained pulling Deion Sanders from retirement.

I really don?t see how the Raiders can stop the Titans slow methodical smashmouth then POW! No back set Offense. They may slow it down but it will produce points.

To the other side of the ball

Titan front 7 vs Oakland running game: Oakland is committed to the run. Much like the titans, they will pound out 3-5 yard runs. <U> The key of the game is the Titan Pass Rush vs. the Oakland Pass Block </U> if Oakland can continue to give Gannon time in the pocket the Titans are in trouble. I don?t see how the Titans can stop Gannon if he is on a rhythm. Yes, Jevon will have to step up for the Titans to be successful.

Titan DB's vs Oakland WR's: The JETS came to play saying they were going to shut down Jerry and Tim. They did and Porter ate their lunch. The Titans will have to Bump and run <I>and pray</I> and hope their pass rush helps them out. Gannon isn?t Mcnair. Gannon has more mobility than Brad Johnson or Kurt Warner but he isn?t a major threat. If he can nestle in the pocket like he did against the JETS and throw to his 3rd and 4th reads then the game game could get ugly.

Titans kickers had a bad day last week, so did the Raiders. Field position game will be interesting look for Callahan to be more conservative then in games past.

This game will be close.

1) 8 points is a lot

2) You can never predict Flukey plays. You can predict Jeff Fisher to have 1-3 trick or deception plays. He does it EVERY GAME.


Even if the Raiders are up in the fourth quarter the Titans still have a back door cover possibility with 8 points.

We'll see how it turns out, sure is fun debating in the meantime though.

 

[CWood97]

uh uh

uh uh

Actually, 8 became 7'

Stardust
1/12 19:54 ET - Oakland -7.0 (47o/u)
1/12 20:33 ET - Oakland -7.5 -120 (47o/u)
1/12 20:33 ET - Oakland -7.5 (47o/u)
1/13 10:36 ET - Oakland -7.5 (47.0o/u)

:nono: