tennis never stops

[boris]

Three events this week, full analysis on the site (see profile for URL).

BASTAD

Robredo v Calleri - Two talented claycourters doing battle here. Robredo is
the player with all the hype. Big things are expected of this kid, and that
usually translates into bookmakers over-reacting. Robredo had a relatively
easy first round win over Massu, which was to be expected. Calleri had no
more of a task against local veteran Gustafsson. He played last week in
Venice, reaching the quarters before losing to improving young countryman
Nalbandian. Robredo deserves favouritism, but not by a great deal. Calleri
has talent and is a touch of value at this price.

3pts Calleri 2.55 at SportsTAB


GSTAAD

Pioline v Clavet - Three wins apiece here from six previous clashes, and on
clay the record is 2-1 in favour of Clavet. Pioline had a three-set battle
to get past Koubek yesterday, while Clavet was clear of Arazi in straight.
Not much between them at all, a touch of value on offer for the Spaniard.

4pts Clavet 2.20 at Five Dimes


NEWPORT

Sargsian v Godwin - Both journeymen with a penchant for grass. Sargsian, the
last player to get direct entry into the main draw at Wimbledon on ranking,
won two rounds against claycourters before falling to Sampras. Godwin fought
his way through qualifying and was two-sets-to-love up against Moya before
losing in five. Before that he reached the final of the Surbiton challenger,
losing to Taylor Dent. I think there's little between these two, so 2.25 for
Godwin is value.

4pts Godwin 2.25 at Olympic

Damm v Labadze - The strength of this event is shown in this clash. Damm has
hardly played a match all year, whereas Labadze spends most of his time in
challengers. Damm is recovering from a long injury layoff and has no form
behind him at all. Labadze was runner-up to Federer in the 1998 boy's
singles at Wimbledon, and last week was runner-up in a challenger at Ulm in
Germany, losing 7-5 in the third to Davydenko. The change of surfaces from
clay to grass won't help much, but before that he did win a couple of
qualifying rounds at Wimbledon before losing at the last hurdle. The
Georgian should be favourite here, some companies haven't done their form.

6pts Labadze 2.60 at Five Dimes

 

[AzRusty]

Thanks for you efforts Boris.

I have been trying to follow your picks both here and on Stanley's board. Due to the time difference between the UK and Az it has been darn near impossible for me to play.

Thanks and will try to get some of your plays in soon.

AzRusty

 

[boris]

so that's why I'm not winning recently - you're not following my picks

Today's action

BASTAD

C.Rochus v Russell - Not much between this pair. Rochus had a relatively
poor first half of the year while Russell emerged from nowhere to hold a
match point against Kuerten at Roland Garros in the fourth round. Since then
Russell has played in the clay challenger at Biella, where he lost in the
second round, while Rochus made the final, and then lost in the first round
of qualifying for Wimbledon. Rochus is coming off a win in the Venice
challenger last week, and held that form with a win over Vicente in the
opening round. Russell's win over Dosedel was good, but I can't rate it as
highly. A couple of places offered 2.00 for Rochus yesterday, but that has
been snapped up. The best now looks to be 1.91 at 5Dimes which is still
value.

5pts C.Rochus 1.91 at Five Dimes

Portas v Acasuso - There's a 1-0 record in favour of Acasuso on this one,
but it doesn't give a huge advantage to the young Argentine. The match was
earlier this year on clay in Buenos Aires when the local boy played
brilliantly in front of his home crowd to reach the final. The score against
Portas was fairly close, 6-4 7-5. Since then, Acasuso has not managed to
repeat those results, but has done enough to show that he deserves his spot
on the tour.

Portas has stepped up this year, taking a Masters Series title in Hamburg,
and now has the confidence that he can beat anyone on clay. His best weapon
is his drop shot, hence his nickname the 'Drop Shot Dragon'. Against Acasuso
this will be of great benefit as the Argentine plays a long way behind the
baseline. He has two options - stay back and do a lot of running forward in
vain, or move closer to the baseline and upset his rhythm. This is the sort
of player that Portas loves to face, and at around 1.60 is good value for a
multiple.

Ulihrach v Meligeni - Ulihrach is a far better all-round player than the
Brazilian, who on the far side of 30, is now in the twilight of his career.
In the opening round, their results were similar, Ulihrach beat Jonsson,
while Meligeni's task was just as effortless against Knippschild. Couple him
up with Portas in a double.

4pt double Portas/Ulihrach 2.65 at Five Dimes


GSTAAD

Balcells v Kratochvil - The serve-volleying Spaniard triumphed again over
Safin in the opening round, while Kratochvil had to fight to get past
qualifier Burrieza. There is one previous clash between this pair that
doesn't show up on the ATP records - in Mallorca last year, Balcells won 6-2
6-2 in the final round of qualifying, which evens the slate at 1-1
(Kratochvil won at a challenger in Geneva in 1999). Taking that into
account, plus their scores on Tuesday, you have to lean to Balcells, even if
Kratochvil is on home soil.

5pts Balcells 1.90 at Centrebet

Mantilla v Novak - This pair will know each other's games fairly well,
having met on five previous occasions. The ledger leans 3-2 in favour of
Novak, but the Spaniard has won two of the last three. On this year's form
you would side with Mantilla, but there's not a great deal between them.
Novak's win over Coria in the first round has to be rated higher than
Mantilla's victory over Levy, so 2.40 at Olympic looks worthy of a nibble.

2pts Novak 2.40 at Olympic

Gaudio v Ljubicic - Both players silenced the crowd on Tuesday by knocking
out local players in Rosset and Federer. Today they face off for just the
second time, their previous clash went the way of Gaudio in two tiebreaks on
clay in 1999. Both players can be described as a little enigmatic,
consistency isn't the strength of either player. Ljubicic's win over Federer
was very impressive, but you have to wonder just how interested in the match
Federer was, particularly in the second set. When Ljubicic hits form, he can
normally hold it. He has been inspired by the achievement of Ivanisevic and
now believes he can match it with the best on the circuit. Very little
between these two as displayed by the scoreline in their previous clash,
Direcbet's price is overs.

4pts Ljubicic 2.50 at Direcbet


NEWPORT

Sargsian v Godwin (repeated from Wednesday) - Both journeymen with a
penchant for grass. Sargsian, the last player to get direct entry into the
main draw at Wimbledon on ranking, won two rounds against claycourters
before falling to Sampras. Godwin fought his way through qualifying and was
two-sets-to-love up against Moya before losing in five. Before that he
reached the final of the Surbiton challenger, losing to Taylor Dent. I think
there's little between these two, so 2.25 for Godwin is value.

4pts Godwin 2.25 at Olympic

Not many reputable bookies with prices up on Newport just yet, so only brief
comments with no bets.

Dent v Carlsen - The boom is now on Dent after his effort at Wimbledon, but
remember he has been around for a few years and hasn't really moved forward.
Carlsen is no slouch and might be overpriced.

Blake v Wessels - Defensing champion against ordinary American player,
should be an easy win for the Dutchman.

Fish v Llodra - I lean to the Frenchman but this really is a match that
should be at a challenger event. Both had good wins in the first round, but
just as likely to fall in a hole today.

Capalik v Salzenstein - This match should be in qualifying at a
challenger....

M.Lee v Weiner - Give Weiner a chance here. He did manage to win a few
rounds in Auckland this year, so is not totally out of his depth.

 

[Houston Gambler]

Boris,how can I get to your profile to get your url.

 

[AzRusty]

His profile is just to the right of the date in his post.

------------------
Still Not a Sportsfan. Just like the prostitute who hates sex I'm only in it for the money!

 

[Durwood]

In everyone's posts there is a small box near the top with a "face and question mark".
Clicking it should open a window with the profile information. Good luck!

 

[boris]

All matches covered on the site today, here's a sample.....


BASTAD

Norman v C.Rochus - Two players that have struggled for form throughout 2001, but now look to be back on track. The Swede has had relationship, confidence and injury problems since late last year but rest since the French Open and a lot of golf (he has reduced his handicap from 22 to 14) have him producing results on the circuit again. Impressive wins over Puerta and Ilie in the opening rounds place him against the pint-sized Rochus who has regained his best form with wins over Vicente and Russell on top of a challenger event win last week. Their one previous clash was here last year with Norman winning 6-2 6-1. I think Norman will win again, but it won't be as clear cut. Norman's price might be a touch of overs if you think he is completely 'back'. Out of my range though and I'm not yet 100% convinced about his retirn to form, so pass.

Robredo v Gaudenzi - The Spanish upstart against the Italian fighter face off for a semi-final berth and an excellent chance to play on Sunday. Robredo has beaten Massu and Calleri to get this far in good, but not devastating fashion, while Gaudenzi's wins over Blanco and Vinciguerra deserve a higher rating in my opinion. When in form, Gaudenzi is a tough cookie to beat, and his experience may be enough to get him past Robredo. Gaudenzi recently won the rich Braunschweig challenger, defeating Calleri (in straight sets), Squillari, Diaz and El Aynaoui, so it was certainly a strong event. He also holds a 1-0 record over Robredo, not that I gave that much weight, from qualifying at Lyon last year, 4-6 6-3 6-3 on carpet. Any better than pick looks value for me, so take the 2.10 at Ladbrokes or WSEX.

5pts Gaudenzi 2.10 at Ladbrokes


GSTAAD

Kratochvil v Novak - The local boy fights on with a clear victory over Balcells yesterday, while Novak was able to trump Mantilla again. Novak likes playing at high altitude, "The secret is that I am really enjoying this tournament," said Novak. "I like to play at high altitude - this is my fifth time here. I can play offensive tennis, hitting the ball quite fast and going into the net behind it."

Kratochvil on the other hand has been inspired by Federer's win over Sampras and is now looking to make a name for himself on the tour. I can't find a previous match between these two, so it comes down to form this week. Kratochvil has beaten a pair of Spaniards in Burrieza and Balcells, while Novak has knocked off Coria and Mantilla, a pair of results that must be rated stronger. The price on Novak, around 1.6-1.7, is a little under my range, so I'll need to find another selection to take a multi with.


Grosjean v Squillari - This one is tricky. Grosjean is having a career-best year, but here he comes up against a player that has a higher rating on clay. Grosjean was rather lucky to get past Lapentti in the second round, he held a 5-2 lead in the final set, yet had to win a tie-break to take the match. His form this week could be called good, without being brilliant, with Squillari's rating much the same, having defeated Bastl and A.Martin in his opening rounds. The one match between them was played at the World Team Cup, just before the French Open this year, when Grosjean was successful in straight sets. Squillari looked out-of-sorts that week, not managing to win a mtch, but then reached the fourth round at Roland Garros before losing in five sets to Agassi, who was in turn defeated by 'The Skateboard Kid' from France. I certainly give the Argentine a chance in this match, and the price at WSEX is just enough.

3pts Squillari 2.30 at WSEX

Ferrero v Pioline - The 'Mosquito' has returned to clay a little rusty, but has got through the opening rounds without much trouble against Di Pasquale and Boutter, two reasonably talented Frenchmen. On the other side of the net today will be another Frenchman, one that has endured a pair of three-set battles to get past Koubek and Clavet this week. Ferrero is looking like the man to beat this week, and I think this match will return him to his best form on the red dirt.

4pt double Novak/Ferrero paying 2.19 at Five Dimes


NEWPORT

Not much to go on as few bookies have prices up, so here are a few comments and expected prices.

Llodra v Godwin - Llodra came back from 0-5 in the final set tiebreak against Fish yesterday, while Godwin has been throwing in plenty of double faults during his two matches over Dupuis and Sargsian. I'd expect bookmakers to lean slightly to Godwin, not knowing that this pair have met once before - result, a 6-3 6-2 win to Llodra in qualifying at Toronto last year. Might be worth taking Llodra at evens or better.

Carlsen v Schuettler - A good win for Carlsen over the big-serving Dent, while Schuettler hasn't beaten much in Kim and Damm. Carlsen is swiftly regaining his touch, while Schuettler isn't that great a player, especially on grass, Carlsen should be a slight favourite here, get involved if he's not. Carlsen won the only match between the pair, back in 1999 in Tokyo, and on grass should be favoured.

Blake v Capalik - Blake running red hot, defeating defending champion Wessels in straight sets. He's the local hope, but just as likely to suffer post-big-win-letdown. Capalik has beaten two nobodies in Gimelstob and Salzenstein so it's hard to get a line on his form. Will stay out of this one, but I expect Blake to go up at around 1.60.

Sanguinetti v Lee - The wily Italian faces a rising Brit who is comfortable on grass. Twelve months ago they played at Queen's and Sanguinetti won in straight sets. Lee is ever-improving, but he'll be the outsider here for good reason.