Because Texas is horrible. They've played two average teams at home and lost the last two weeks. Neither of which have an offense that is close to being as good as TCUs. And neither of which have D's that are close to TCUs, even with TCUs missing players. Strongs calling card was supposed to be defense and if that's the case then they're in real trouble because the D I've watched has been horrible.
If you get the line right now then maybe Texas is a low level play. If it drops to 14 then I think it's a toss up with a potential TCU blowout. TCU is going to hang 50+ on UT and 60 isn't out of the question. No team UT has faced has an offense as good as TCUs.
You may get a backdoor but that's the best you can hope for IMO.
I've watched all of their games this year and to me they look like a very poorly coached team. That usually doesn't go well when you're on the road facing a very good coached team.
Cal's offense is quite good and a top draft pick QB. TCU has the much better run game compared to Cal or OKSt. TCU's defense is not as good as they have been. SMU (yeah the SMU team that lost to James Madison at home) scored liberally on TCU. And TTech put up 50+. Texas' offense is nowhere near as good as TT and not as good as SMU but they can still score some points. Heard has proven to be quite dynamic and could do some damage against a struggling TCU dee.
Texas' defense......not good, though the 2nd half of OKSt they played a helluva lot better than they have all year. Could be just an anomaly.
I think Texas is better than SMU so at 17.5 I think Texas is the play. At 14? no thanks. Until TCU's defense can make a stop (injuries and suspensions are really hurting them right now), asking them to cover over 2 TDs and a FG against most teams not named Kansas is going to be tough.
Texas has played two undefeated ranked (rankings mean nothing these days though) teams closely, losing due to kickers. They are improving from week to week it appears. Can they rebound after 2 heartbreaking losses? Do they feel slighted by how the refs ripped them off at the end of the OKSt game? Not sure. Can Texas reduce the mistakes and penalties? Not sure either but it's something that has to be a focal point.
Will TCU be flat after getting up for a big opponent last week and eeking out a last second miracle win? That will be very hard to do but they are well coached and definitely have a lot to play for and Patterson will absolutely positively not hesitate to RUTS if the opportunity is there.
