2.2/2 TEXAS TECH(+17) at OhioSt (Oasis/Imperial Palace)
...One of my partners in crime was in agreement w/ me on the line projection for this gm. We were both expecting -8 or -9. Buckeyes would figure to lay a decent #, being the bigger name team and playing at home. But I was really surprised to see a # this heavy. Consider these simple comparisons:
a) Starting QBs: TD/INT ratio L2 yrs
Kingsbury, Tex Tech: 51/31
Krenzel, Ohio St: 1/4
...Granted, Krenzel should improve quickly. But there's a gaping edge in game experience here.
b) 2001 Field Goals: Made/Att (%)
TT: 16/20 (80%)
OhSt: 10/24 (42%)
...Uh-oh. Each team used two kickers last yr, and the same guys are in place this yr. I equate special teams/kicking to a bullpen in baseball. You gotta have it. Blunders in the kicking game can swing a game and eventually decimate a team's confidence.
c) SU Wins L30 gms
TT: 17
OhSt: 17
...In my research, I found that straight-up wins over the L30 gms serves as a pretty good barometer for program strength. Maybe the perception is Texas Tech as a second-rung team, but they are 1 gm over .500 in Big12 play the L5 yrs. Located in Lubbock, I believe TT is one of the few programs that can fly under the national radar. They are >60% ATS the L8 combined yrs.
d) Returning Starters
TT: 16
OhSt: 12
Regarding this line, a few comments. After this line came out, I expected to see the "Too High" comments. Exactly the sort of comments from guys in this forum. Guys that have looked at the matchup a bit and put in a little time studying it. Closer to gametime, wait to hear the "Trap" comments. But I don't think so. The matchup is just not -17. I do expect this # to drop closer to -15 by kick. Not unusual for early season college #s to move quite a bit.
Tressel is known as a conservative, ball-control coach. Have a hard time envisioning a blowout here, barring QB/special teams gaffes. I feel OhioSt is much more likely to gag in one of those areas, if it does happen. Red Raiders for me. GL.
...One of my partners in crime was in agreement w/ me on the line projection for this gm. We were both expecting -8 or -9. Buckeyes would figure to lay a decent #, being the bigger name team and playing at home. But I was really surprised to see a # this heavy. Consider these simple comparisons:
a) Starting QBs: TD/INT ratio L2 yrs
Kingsbury, Tex Tech: 51/31
Krenzel, Ohio St: 1/4
...Granted, Krenzel should improve quickly. But there's a gaping edge in game experience here.
b) 2001 Field Goals: Made/Att (%)
TT: 16/20 (80%)
OhSt: 10/24 (42%)
...Uh-oh. Each team used two kickers last yr, and the same guys are in place this yr. I equate special teams/kicking to a bullpen in baseball. You gotta have it. Blunders in the kicking game can swing a game and eventually decimate a team's confidence.
c) SU Wins L30 gms
TT: 17
OhSt: 17
...In my research, I found that straight-up wins over the L30 gms serves as a pretty good barometer for program strength. Maybe the perception is Texas Tech as a second-rung team, but they are 1 gm over .500 in Big12 play the L5 yrs. Located in Lubbock, I believe TT is one of the few programs that can fly under the national radar. They are >60% ATS the L8 combined yrs.
d) Returning Starters
TT: 16
OhSt: 12
Regarding this line, a few comments. After this line came out, I expected to see the "Too High" comments. Exactly the sort of comments from guys in this forum. Guys that have looked at the matchup a bit and put in a little time studying it. Closer to gametime, wait to hear the "Trap" comments. But I don't think so. The matchup is just not -17. I do expect this # to drop closer to -15 by kick. Not unusual for early season college #s to move quite a bit.
Tressel is known as a conservative, ball-control coach. Have a hard time envisioning a blowout here, barring QB/special teams gaffes. I feel OhioSt is much more likely to gag in one of those areas, if it does happen. Red Raiders for me. GL.
