- Mar 19, 2006
- 38,656
- 567
- 113
- 75
By Dan Beaver, Yahoo! Sports
November 2, 2007
NASCAR wanted a close points race and that is precisely what they have with three races remaining. Neither the points leader (Jeff Gordon) nor the man chasing him (Jimmie Johnson) can afford to sit back and wait for the other to make a mistake. To win the NASCAR Nextel Cup, both drivers have to beat the other in the closing three events, and that is not PR-driven hyperbole.
The math is simple. Since NASCAR has increased the margin between first and second to 10 points, if Johnson wins his third consecutive race on Sunday at Texas Motor Speedway, he'll take the top spot after managing to cut Gordon's lead from 68 points after the Bank of America 500 to a mere nine following last week's Pep Boys Auto 500.
To win the championship, Gordon must finish ahead of Johnson in at least one of the three remaining races. A cursory look at the two drivers' records on the remaining tracks certainly appears to be in Johnson's favor.
At Texas, Johnson has a better average finish ? 10.3 to Gordon's 15.8. Even at Phoenix, where Gordon has had so much success, Johnson leads 7.3 to 8.2. Homestead goes in favor of Gordon (10.3 to Johnson's 13.5), but the No. 48 driver's average is skewed by a single bad finish in 2005 when he crashed midway through the Ford 400. Otherwise, he's swept the top 10.
ADVERTISEMENT
As good as they have been on these three tracks, both drivers have had difficulty finding victory lane. In fact, until Gordon won this spring at Phoenix, neither Hendrick driver had won a single race at Texas, Phoenix or Homestead. Johnson finished second at Homestead in 2004, just ahead of Gordon. That third-place finish for the No. 24 team still ranks as their best result in South Florida.
If the two were tied after Homestead, Johnson would win the tiebreaker based on the number of victories in 2007. Currently Johnson has eight wins to Gordon's six.
However, for the moment their attention is on Texas, and this would be a great time for either driver to score their first Lone Star victory.
They each have a strong chance of earning it. Both drivers have nearly identical records of top-five finishes there during their careers. Gordon has earned five top-fives in 13 starts (38.5 percent), while Johnson is three for eight (37.5 percent).
On the other side of that coin, neither driver has been bulletproof. Gordon failed to crack the top 25 in his first three starts, while Johnson experienced engine failure this spring and limped to a 38th-place finish.
More recently, during the course of the last six Texas races, Gordon has recorded an average finish of 11.2 compared to Johnson's 11.3. However, Johnson has run near the front of the pack more often over the last three years, recording 1,005 of 1,675 laps in the top 10 compared to Gordon's tally of 697 laps. As a result, Johnson has a slightly higher Driver Rating (99.9 to Gordon's 92.3).
If recent momentum is used as a judge, there isn't much difference. Both drivers have won the last four consecutive races ? Gordon won at Talladega and Lowe's to build up his 68-point lead, only to see it evaporate in the heat of Johnson's victories in the last two races at Martinsville and Atlanta.
Johnson has enough momentum to sweep past Gordon this week, but if Gordon wins at Phoenix, as he did in the spring, he could retake it next week, giving NASCAR the close battle they wanted at Homestead. One way or the other, the Chase is going to be extremely interesting in the next three races.
Dan Beaver of dba Media provides editorial and fantasy racing coverage and analysis to Yahoo! Sports. Send Dan a question or comment for potential use in a future column or webcast.
Updated on Friday, Nov 2, 2007 6:48 pm, EDT
November 2, 2007
NASCAR wanted a close points race and that is precisely what they have with three races remaining. Neither the points leader (Jeff Gordon) nor the man chasing him (Jimmie Johnson) can afford to sit back and wait for the other to make a mistake. To win the NASCAR Nextel Cup, both drivers have to beat the other in the closing three events, and that is not PR-driven hyperbole.
The math is simple. Since NASCAR has increased the margin between first and second to 10 points, if Johnson wins his third consecutive race on Sunday at Texas Motor Speedway, he'll take the top spot after managing to cut Gordon's lead from 68 points after the Bank of America 500 to a mere nine following last week's Pep Boys Auto 500.
To win the championship, Gordon must finish ahead of Johnson in at least one of the three remaining races. A cursory look at the two drivers' records on the remaining tracks certainly appears to be in Johnson's favor.
At Texas, Johnson has a better average finish ? 10.3 to Gordon's 15.8. Even at Phoenix, where Gordon has had so much success, Johnson leads 7.3 to 8.2. Homestead goes in favor of Gordon (10.3 to Johnson's 13.5), but the No. 48 driver's average is skewed by a single bad finish in 2005 when he crashed midway through the Ford 400. Otherwise, he's swept the top 10.
ADVERTISEMENT
As good as they have been on these three tracks, both drivers have had difficulty finding victory lane. In fact, until Gordon won this spring at Phoenix, neither Hendrick driver had won a single race at Texas, Phoenix or Homestead. Johnson finished second at Homestead in 2004, just ahead of Gordon. That third-place finish for the No. 24 team still ranks as their best result in South Florida.
If the two were tied after Homestead, Johnson would win the tiebreaker based on the number of victories in 2007. Currently Johnson has eight wins to Gordon's six.
However, for the moment their attention is on Texas, and this would be a great time for either driver to score their first Lone Star victory.
They each have a strong chance of earning it. Both drivers have nearly identical records of top-five finishes there during their careers. Gordon has earned five top-fives in 13 starts (38.5 percent), while Johnson is three for eight (37.5 percent).
On the other side of that coin, neither driver has been bulletproof. Gordon failed to crack the top 25 in his first three starts, while Johnson experienced engine failure this spring and limped to a 38th-place finish.
More recently, during the course of the last six Texas races, Gordon has recorded an average finish of 11.2 compared to Johnson's 11.3. However, Johnson has run near the front of the pack more often over the last three years, recording 1,005 of 1,675 laps in the top 10 compared to Gordon's tally of 697 laps. As a result, Johnson has a slightly higher Driver Rating (99.9 to Gordon's 92.3).
If recent momentum is used as a judge, there isn't much difference. Both drivers have won the last four consecutive races ? Gordon won at Talladega and Lowe's to build up his 68-point lead, only to see it evaporate in the heat of Johnson's victories in the last two races at Martinsville and Atlanta.
Johnson has enough momentum to sweep past Gordon this week, but if Gordon wins at Phoenix, as he did in the spring, he could retake it next week, giving NASCAR the close battle they wanted at Homestead. One way or the other, the Chase is going to be extremely interesting in the next three races.
Dan Beaver of dba Media provides editorial and fantasy racing coverage and analysis to Yahoo! Sports. Send Dan a question or comment for potential use in a future column or webcast.
Updated on Friday, Nov 2, 2007 6:48 pm, EDT
