Texas

[The Big Tease]

No info yet, but I put a SUPER longshot bet in, for just 10 bucks.

Call me crazy, but I took Brendan Gaughan at 100-1

This kid owned this track in the truck series.....maybe we will strike it rich!

 

[Let's Have Fun]

I like JR at 8-1. A strong hunch here. He had a good run last year and except for one race this year has been very solid.
vroom vroom

 

[azjeff]

tase.. can you list how you have the drivers finishing.. thanks

 

[The Big Tease]

Well......I gotta say that I am pretty disgusted with how inflated the lines are getting in this sport......It is just silly to lay a ton of chalk in this sport since you never know what is going to happen over the course of a race. I have a very good knack of knowing which cars are having trouble and which ones are better than expected going in. If any of you pay attention......at the beginning of every race, watch and see if everything I say holds true. That is until some dumb pit stop or caution or wreck, or bad adjustment by the crew chief screws it up. So bottom line......chalk is a bad idea.

I see very established drivers out there this week that are big underdogs, and I think it is because many people are getting access to information. Jimmie Johnson has not had a good week. I know this. I was ready to place some wagers against him......but every matchup he has, he is a nice sized underdog. If others want to eat chalk against Jimmie Johnson, go right ahead, but he has a good crew chief, that is very likely to work out the kinks of that racecar as the afternoon goes along. And when he finishes 7th and beats out your guy by a position and you ate chalk, then the crying begins, at least from me, the crying begins.

Continued in a minute......

 

[The Big Tease]

This week, we all get a special treat, however. My partner in handicapping has been at the racetrack in Texas all week, and has been listening in on his scanner at drivers as they practice, and has seen first hand what these cars are doing on the race track. He is very sharp, and together, we usually know what is going on every race. Here is what we have come up with.....

Evernham cars are the class of the field. Kahne, Mayfield and Elliott were able to pass on this racetrack (which is a hard thing to do considering there is only about 1.5 grooves of racing) Before I get onto other things......my prediction is that Kahne gets his first Nextel win today. Usually takes a driver that isnt afraid to put his balls to the wall, and Kahne is young, dumb and fast, great combo here.

The Roush cars are always good here and they are good again, with the exception of Jeff Burton. As usual he is unsponsored and they are putting NO money into the car. My buddy says he was heard on the radio saying, "I cant turn the thing! I dont know how much longer I can hold this thing, it wont turn!" Which means his setup sucks.....and they probably really dont care. Jack Roush has 4 other championship caliber teams with 4 big time sponsors to worry about. I wouldnt be surprised to see all 4 Roush cars in the top 10 today, and wouldnt be surprised to see Greg Biffle win the race. I like the Roush cars in this order.......Biffle, Kenseth, Busch, Martin....and all are capable to finishing in the Top 5. Martin probably wont win, just because he is not a front runner anymore, but the other 3 could win. Biffle has pretty decent odds.

Here is how I rank the cars this week........

Kahne
Junior
Biffle
Kenseth
Mayfield
Busch
J Gordon
Newman
McMurray
Sadler
Elliott
Johnson
Martin
B Labonte
Nemacheck
Gaughan
Vickers
Stewart
Mears
Marlin
Harvick
Wallace
T Labonte
W Burtoin
Rudd
Jarrett
J Burton
Waltrip
R Gordon
Wimmer
Blaney
Craven
Spencer
Sauter
Riggs

hopefully you dont need any further

I will be back in a min with my plays

 

[Another Steve]

Like your list, Played 1 & 2. It would be nice to finish this way.

Thanks for Posting, will be looking in to CoatTail a MatchUp.

 

[The Big Tease]

Well here is what I have in so far, and looking at other opportunitys......

OUTRIGHTS:

Kahne 10-1 (50 to win 500)
Biffle 22-1 (20 to win 440)
Gaughan 100-1 (10 to win 1000) LOL

PROPS:

Highest Chevy between JUNIOR, B LABONTE, GORDON, JOHNSON, STEWART

JUNIOR +275 (80 to win 220)


Highest Dodge between KAHNE, WALLACE, MARLIN, ELLIOTT, NEWMAN

KAHNE +225 (80 to win 180)

MATCHUPS:

McMurray +150 over Stewart (100 to win 150)

Kenseth -130 over Stewart (130 to win 100)


Probably more to come.....still looking

 

[The Big Tease]

Alright....here is the last of it

Martin -140 over J Burton (140 to win 100)

McMurray +120 over Elliott (80 to win 95)

Biffle -105 over Elliott (105 to win 100)




Basically......what we need is for Stewart to wreck into Elliott taking them both out of the race:tongue

I just have a lot of information that tells me that Stewart is not a very good car at this point. Elliott, well, he has the car to run up front, but this is a makeshift team. He has a makeshift pit crew and is basically out there trying new things for the "real" team, Mayfield and Kahne. This team could easily blow and engine and rack it up as experience for what not to do for the other teams. They are not in it for points. Elliott is favored over some pretty stiff competition. Not a good idea for oddsmakers....they may take it on the chin here.

Pit stops will be important in this race.......hopefully we can get out of this one with some profits!

Good Luck!

 

[mode the lode]

DODGE DODGE DODGE DODGE DODGE DODGE DODGE DODGE DODGE DODGE DODGE DODGE

 

[The Big Tease]

I am absolutly disgusted.


FFFFUUUUUUCCCCCKKKKKKK!

I just broke just about everything in my house......god fuking dammit, I cannot believe how chitty my luck is at this. Sorry, but I am done. I retire, yet again. Too many fuking idiots out there......We spent 30 laps in caution that Kahne could have taken the lead. Not to mention a caution that put him in 8th place to begin with. This is a dumb sport.....anyone who gambles on it is a fuking moron.

Not only do I lose the race by half a car length, but Gordon pussies his way past Junior to fuk me, and Stewart stays a position ahead of McMurray.

Unfuking real....I canot believe this chit......see you in baseball guys, that fuking sucks

 

[mode the lode]

ditto on everything
THAT HALF A CAR LENGTH COST ME DEARLY

 

[azjeff]

I hear ya Tease.. I had a dime on McMurray over Stewart 1000 to win 1500 and he just couldnt get there.. lost two dimes on NASCAR the last two weeks. gonna have to start betting less. Last week i had Gordon and lost and this week I would have won.

 

[The Big Tease]

still hurting from that crap.......you can know all you want, but there are always things that happen that screw you. What a dumb game to handicap. If races were 50 laps, it would be different, but they are way too long