thanksgiving week early leans/notes

gman2

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Nov 12, 2002
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had a real profitable day on saturday. nailed the big plays and cashed some nice moneyline (central florida, nc state) lots of interesting games this coming holiday weekend, but some tough ones from a gambling perspective. some early leans/notes from my viewpoint:
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right now, arizona stands out as a likely play. seeing the line go from 6 to 6.5, ill wait it out and grab a 7 if and when it hits that number. arizona state is the better offensive team, but that defense isnt tough enough to justify 7 points of rivalry road chalk. zona isnt the most cohesive unit right now, but they did show some sack and the majority of the guys rallied behind mackovic after the "fall-out" 2 weeks ago- which leads me to believe theyll give a strong effort here. asu has burned me a few times this year when i bet on em. now im going against em- and hopefully i dont get jammed but this team again.
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huskers as a slight dog on friday look to be a play as well. obviously, huskers have been down this year- but i gotta think that a lot of these huskers remember last years ass beating colorado put on em. buffs completely dominated that game. needless to say- huskers arent a home dog very often, and failed in this spot a month ago vs texas as a 3 pt dog- but they had their chances vs the horns and solich really mismanaged that one. im willing to give the huskers a shot here on the short moneyline. for some reason, i think this line will hit 2 or 2.5 so this is another one im gonna wait out.
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played bowling green spread and moneyline already. pissed at myself for missing the 3.5's- but grabbed 2 units on bgsu (+3) and 2 units on bgsu moneyline (+130). not seein eye to eye with hellah on this one- but i think bgsu is definitely the right side. toledo did it with mirrors last weekend in dekalb vs northern illinois, and bgsu's harris should have a big day vs that defense. falcons off an easy tune-up win, toledo off a down-to-the-final-play-win. toledo does have revenge from last year, but i dont think they have enough to handle bowling green here. this is essentially bgsu's bowl game, since they lose the divisional tie-breakers, and if this does happen to be meyer's last game as bgsu coach- i really feel the falcs will send him out with a win. its no secret the guy has done wonders for bowling greens program in just 2 seasons- and he's likely to make the jump to a power-conference head coaching position at some point. the guy is a great coach and motivator. rockets are still a very young team, and i think bgsu's vets get the best of em in this rivalry.
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gonna play central florida as well once i can find a good number. ohio is off a heartbreaking loss to marshall on saturday which eliminated them from mac-east contention, and now they gotta travel down to florida for a meaningless late season game. central floridas offense has been putting up a shitload of points as of late- and that ohio secondary should get shredded on saturday. even an immobile leftwich was doing whatever he wanted to the ohio defense last week. knights should finish the season very strong with a blowout win. bobcats will be happy to get out of freezing ohio for a few days and take their mini-vacation down south. ucf for me
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once okie/okie state gets a total posted, im gonna likely be on the under if the number is reasonable. okie will look to dominate this game due to their pathetic effort last year vs the cowboys, and the high number of points put up in okie/tech last week should allow for this number to be playable. not to mention sooners/cowboys have been big time defensive wars the last few years
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pondering ala-birmingham as well. cincy back home after their trip halfway across the world to hawaii, lol. bearcats really got jammed last week on a lot of controversial calls on the island. cincy really dejected after that loss. really deserved the win (even though i had the bows) and now cincy has to regroup to face uab. cats need to win out to become bowl eligible- which might be some motivation for them- but i dont think theyll be in the right frame of mind to cover this one after last weeks heart breaker. if number goes any higher- i may grab uab
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only play for right now is bowling green spread and moneyline. will add to this thread throughout the week. gl fellas
 
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