The Chase

[DeadPrez]

Pretty much a 3 horse race for the championship. Odds on all 3 aren't good so I figure I'll take a longshot on some long odds on guys who are really running well right now.

I took Harvick a little while ago and his odds have since gotten worse. To be quite honest I don't feel good now about his chances but I already put that one in so it's done. He has been running very well lately with 7 top 10's in his last 8 races but he hasn't shown that he can win and that worries me a bit.

I also like Hamlin as he has been running very well as of late and running conservatively as well. Now that he can go all out since he's in the Chase I think he could improve on his recent finishes, which include three 3rd place finishes in the last 3 races. Hamlin will be strong at Martinsville, N.H. and Talladega and is capable of top 10 finishes at the cookie cutter tracks like Lowe's, ATL and Texas. I also like that he runs similar equipment to Kyle Busch who has dominated this season.

Hard to lay off of Gordon here as he was so strong in the Chase last year. I believe he had 9 top 10 finishes in 10 Chase races a year ago. I think Kenseth will do well also. Both of these guys aren't coming in with much momentum at all which lends to some value in matchups.

I feel like guys that don't have a chance are Burton, Earnhardt Jr., Biffle and Bowyer. Not feeling too good about Stewart either but I feel like he could be lumped in with Gordon and Kenseth as very capable of winning but just not running that great right now even though he finished 2nd last weekend and should be very strong this weekend.

When push comes to shove I think that JJ and the #48 team win their 3rd consecutive championship.

This is my summary on The Chase and looking forward to seeing how it shakes out...

Playing everything small...


Longshot to Win the Chase:

#11 (Hamlin) (+2000)
#29 (Harvick) (+3000)

Matchups:

#17 (Kenseth) over #88 (Earnhardt Jr.) (+140)
#29 (Harvick) over #31 (Burton) (-115)
#24 (Gordon) over #20 (Stewart) (-110)
#11 (Hamlin) over #20 (Stewart) (+125)


gl

 

[grinin]

I agree that the odds on the 3 favorites are overvalued. I also think that Harvick (+3500 is available) and Hamlin are some of the better values, odds wise, of the rest of the bunch. A lot of wins is not going to be required to win the championship. The winner could easily have solid top ten finishes with a few top 5's sprinkled in; as long as he has zero bad races.

My "don't have a chance group" would be Gordon, Bowyer, and Kenseth. None of these guys have gotten a solid handle on this new car and thus will not be able to string together 10 above average finishes.

Earnhardt Jr and Burton also have little chance of winning. But Burton's odds are so long I have been considering him. I doubt Jr's odds will ever improve enough for there to be value.

Stewart has a legitimate shot, but again, no value.

One driver I do think has a good chance of winning it all, as well as odds that are not way out of line is Biffle. Because of Biffle's performance on the cookie cutters, he simply can not be discounted. I took him at +1900.