The DAWG'S CFB Week 4: (9-4 last week)

SwanDawg

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Off a nice 9-4 week for week three, and now two winning weeks to one losing one. The losing one was hopefully a Mulligan for the season.

Thursday:

1* Auburn -8.5

My line has it at 10.75. The Tigers come in a little off the radar, and a lot of folks are pointing for a possible upset at Kansas State and they're great underdog HC Snyder. However Auburn does have a team worth noting on the schedule vs. Arkansas. A game where they won 45-21 vs a team who's offense is top 20 worthy where as KST is more 40 to 60th. KST vs Iowa State won 32-28, but the Cyclones offense is about 58th with a defense around 100 to 110th. Auburn has so many more weapons and while KST will put up a solid fight unless Auburn has turnover troubles they should beat this number. Trends: The Last 3 years: Aub is 2-0 as a road favs of 7 to 9.5 points, 22-17 L/39 ATS. KST is 25-12-1 ATS, 4-2 ATS as home dogs, and 0-1 as home dogs of 7 to 9.5 points.

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Marshall -9

My line is 10.25. I had a nice easy winner with the Thundering Herd last week as they rolled Ohio 44-14. However this will be the best offensive team they've faced at they're 3-0 stage with the Zips sitting 80th to 100th in offense. Akron put up a nice fight verses Penn State, but the Nittany Lions have a 40th to 50th offense while Marshall has an offense that is a top 25 unit. Big offensive edge to Marshall here. Defensively Akron is about like their offense which is 80th to 90th. Marshall's defense is a 25th to 35th type unit. To put this into perspective I have Ohio's defense 60th to 70th, and the Herd as mentioned won by thirty. I have PNST defense in that 25th to 35th range just like Marshall's and Akron lost to State 3-21. Trends L/3Y Marshall 2-8 ATS as road favs, and Akron is 4-9 ATS as home dogs.

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1* Pittsburgh -6.5

I have this one at 8.75, and this will be the best contest either of these teams have went up against. Pittsburgh has true Heisman contender in James Conner who ripped off 213 at Boston College a team that just held USC to 20 yards rushing. The Panthers were caught looking ahead to this game getting down 16-0 to FIU, but down a solid job in the comeback winning by 17 on the road. While Ferentz and Iowa are at their most dangerous when you least expect them to be there's no hiding the fact that the struggle to beat Ball State and blow the 11-point lead and lose at home to IOST may tell a lot about this Hawkeye team. L/3Y Trends: Pittsburgh is 22-16 ATS and 7-4 as home favs. Iowa is 16-22, 4-6 as road dogs, and 0-2 as road dogs of 3 to 6.5 points.

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1* Michigan -4.5

I have the line at 5.25 as Utah has lost all value it normally would have at the Big House with it's 2-0 mark and Michigan's 0-31 loss to ND. A game that the Wolverines actually outgained the Irish 289 to 280. The trouble has been turnovers, because the Maze and Blue's defense has actually been solid. I have them as atop 20 in defense to Utah's 25th to 35th ranked. The Utes so far have played FCS Idaho ST (Clubbing Baby Seals), and Fresno State who I faded last week at home vs Nebraska. The Bulldogs defense I have 60th to 75th ranked. So the Utes dominance on offense will be lessened here. The Utes are 2-9 away from home the last two years and Hoke is 21-2 SU at home. L/3Y trends: Michigan 21-20-1 ATS, 16-11-1 as favs, 13-8 as home favs. Utah is 19-17, 12-8 as dogs, 7-5 as road dogs, and 1-4 after two SU wins.

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1* Alabama -14.5

I have this one at 18, and this will be a BIG game for Florida head coach Will Muschamp after the way the Gators played at home vs Kentucky as he actually looked lost on the sidelines at times in that Contest. This week he faces a top 5 offense and defense in Alabama (Kentucky Off & Def was 51st to 60th on both sides). This will be Lane Kiffin's biggest test this far as OC at Bama with top 12 defense of the Gators. However the best defense in the nation should do good at home verses a 20th to 30th offense. So I expect the Gators to hang for a little while but then pull away in the 2nd half, and in the Last three meetings they've lost by 24 PPG. Trends the L/3Y: Alabama 23-18 ATS, 12-12 as home favs, and 2-1 laying 14 to 16.5 at home. Florida is 16-21 ATS, 6-7 as dogs, 4-3 as road dogs.

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1* BYU -14

My line for this contest is 16, but I expected a little more value on the Cougars after UVA's home win over Louisville. However I suppose the BYU roll over Texas is still lingering, but I did get enough a line value in going ahead and pulling the trigger here. This BYU QB Tayson Hill could start for any SEC team and probably any team but FST in the nation. He will be tested with UVA's defensive line who can really bring it. However the secondary has had some issues and lets remember Richmond gain over 400 yards in the 2nd game of the season vs. the Cavs. I do have UVA's defense ranked in the top 10, but this will be the best offensive team Virginia will have faced thus far (BYU is a top 10 unit on offense). UVA's offense is a 60th to 70th type squad in my rankings, and to put that into perspective I have Texas as a 30th to 40th squad. A team BYU won against 41-7. Plus this will be they're first road test of the year, and BYU has a HUGE revenge angle here. Trends the L/3Y: BYU 23-17 ATS, 9-8 as home favs, 10-5 off an ATS loss. Virginia is 15-22 ATS, 6-6 as road dogs, and 2-5 after two wins.

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