FACT: Anyone remotely familiar with horse racing, or anyone who even just watches Sportscenter, knows that only one favorite has won since 1980.
What they don't mention is that the Derby is often run with 18-20 horses, so there is a greater chance of getting bumped, traffic etc. If the Derby was limited to 12 horses like most regular everyday races, the number would undoubtatly be higher. Second, how many of the favorites since 1980 were phony? Off the top of my head I can think of a few: Althea, a filly who won the Arkansas Derby was taking on a strong field of colts; Chief's Crown, a solid horse who appeared to be best suited to 1 mile-9 furlongs, Fly So Free (same comment as Chief's Crown), Arazi, who had run only 1 7 furlong turf race in France during the spring, Prairie Bayou and Demon's Begone, a pair of horses who beat mediocre Arkansas Derby fields, Serena's Song, another filly taking on colts who ended up losing to her male stablemate; Indian Charlie, who appeared to be running out of steam against Real Quiet in the SA Derby.
There's also been close 2nd choices in the betting who have won in recent years: Silver Charm, Sunday Silence, Swale, Grindstone to name a few.
My point? Empire Maker is a legitimate favorite, with a solid record, a Hall of Fame trainer and impeccable breeding to get 10 furlongs. If you like him, don't let the "Derby favorite stat" mislead you.
What they don't mention is that the Derby is often run with 18-20 horses, so there is a greater chance of getting bumped, traffic etc. If the Derby was limited to 12 horses like most regular everyday races, the number would undoubtatly be higher. Second, how many of the favorites since 1980 were phony? Off the top of my head I can think of a few: Althea, a filly who won the Arkansas Derby was taking on a strong field of colts; Chief's Crown, a solid horse who appeared to be best suited to 1 mile-9 furlongs, Fly So Free (same comment as Chief's Crown), Arazi, who had run only 1 7 furlong turf race in France during the spring, Prairie Bayou and Demon's Begone, a pair of horses who beat mediocre Arkansas Derby fields, Serena's Song, another filly taking on colts who ended up losing to her male stablemate; Indian Charlie, who appeared to be running out of steam against Real Quiet in the SA Derby.
There's also been close 2nd choices in the betting who have won in recent years: Silver Charm, Sunday Silence, Swale, Grindstone to name a few.
My point? Empire Maker is a legitimate favorite, with a solid record, a Hall of Fame trainer and impeccable breeding to get 10 furlongs. If you like him, don't let the "Derby favorite stat" mislead you.
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