The Derby

[The Big Tease]

Well I have FINALLY done what I have been trying to do for 2 days now....I am down to the only 6 horses I feel have a decent shot of hitting the board. Some are just feel picks, others I have tailed, and others I have some decent stats to back it up.


Here are my 6, now how I bet them, well that will be decided around post time.

Empire Maker (of course)
Buddy Gil
Funny Cide
Indian Express
Offlee Wild
Peace Rules


Now you notice there is no Ten Most Wanted. Reason being....he is way overbet right now. Also by looking at his past performance, he is more primed to bounce than any other horse out there. I just dont have a good feeling about this horse at all.

Any ideas on how to bet these?

 

[kingfin66]

I'll take a shot at helping your betting:

First, don't play EM to win, there is no value.

Funny to win and place
Ex: Funny over EM (go decent amt)
Ex: EM over FC, PR, TMW (again decent amt)
Ex: TMW over FC, PR, EM (1/2 of your previous amts)
* I know, you don't like TMW, so skip this one if you choose.

Ex: Funny over PR, BG, IE, TMW, OW (1/2 of larger amts)
(I keep including TMW because of my own 'capping)

Tri: FC with EM, PR, TMW with EM, PR, BG, IE, TMW, OW
Tri: EM with FC, PR, TMW with FC, PR, BG, IE, TMW, OW

By the way, I have Buddy Gil in my picks to, but memories of the SA are going to cause me to substitute for him. He was dying at the end - that's why Indian Express was able to come back. IE, it should be noted, was also fading.

Good luck!

 

[Skanoochies]

Hello Kingfin66,just a comment on Indian Express.He had every right to back up slightly in the S.A. Derby. Here we have a horse that had only three 6 1/2 furlong races in his life. Two of those were last year in Panama. One this year. Then Baffert sends this lightly raced horse out to do the dirty work, i.e. go out and ensure a fast pace for a mile and one eighth, and set it up for his other two nuggets, Kafwain and Domestic Dispute. But all this horse does is goes out head and head with Ocean Terrace in 45 and two, sends him to the showers and battles with Buddy Gill all the way to the wire, losing by a head. I think he will be a lot tighter of a horse this time, whether he can handle 1 1/4 miles is a question we will find out on Sat. but I wouldn`t underestimate him if I were you. Bafferts decision to sell Dom. Disp. also makes me think he all of a sudden respects this horse very highly.

Just another thing to think about.

 

[The Big Tease]

Yea there are evern more factors going against Buddy Gil (being a gelded NY horse) those are two bad historical factors. I dont know if they carry any weight, but we will see. But his current form and numbers are too much to ignore completely. I just have to put him in there.

It is funny that you can find something wrong with EVERY horse in this field. So that is why I think I may try some real long shots to make some cash in this one.

 

[twofingers]

Have a buddy who I met recently who has won some big handicapping tournaments over the years and he gave me his plays for today. Take them for what they are.

He loves Atswhatiamtalkinabout. He is a unraced as a 2 year old and is coming into his own. Had a bad trip in last prep and still was coming hard at end. Thinks with a decent trip and added distance, this horse is a live longshot. Early odds were 10-1.

Suggests WPS and couple in exotics with Brancusi, Peace Rules, and Buddy Gill.

 

[kingfin66]

Skanoochies,

I definitely have some respect for Indian Express. Of the SA Derby horses, I feel he is the best. He is in my exotics.