The Eastern Edge

[Nolan Dalla]

Sorry, I just found out there were server problems with the main page. I am posted THE EASTERN EDGE PLAYS below:



Play Probability of Winning Percent of Bankroll to Bet
PITT + 7 73% 3.2%
ATL + 12 73% 3.2%
SEA - 3 1/2 66% 2.2%
CHI + 6 65% 2.1%
ARIZ + 6 65% 2.1%
SF/SEA Under 46 65% 2.1%
MIA/JACK Over 37 1/2 64% 2.0%
TB/WASH Under 37 1/2 63% 1.8%
ATL/STL Over 45 1/2 63% 1.8%
NYG + 3 62% 1.7%
WASH + 3 1/2 62% 1.7%
NYJ + 2 1/2 62% 1.7%
6 1/2 CMT (OAK-3/CLEV) with (JACK +3/MIA) 55% 0.7%

Total Percent of Bankroll at Risk: 26.3%
Expected Return as a Percent of Starting Bankroll: 7.4%
Expected Return on Amount at Risk: 28.3%

EasternEdge

 

[GENO]

Nolan or MR E/E no disrespect simply interested in commentary as to why the sudden drop in bankroll placed at risk? Not sure as I did not write down last weeks figures (maybe they are still in the report from last week?) but wasn't some of the larger figures in the 6-7 +% range when the win probabilities in the 60-70% area?

Thanks for the reply and not trying to call anyone out just asking for the sake of education value.

 

[sdf]

i had the same question as GENO.

as well, the documented record shows W/L but
doesnt take into acct % wagered.

in Week 5, EE lost every non CMT play and dropped
40-50% of bankroll.

thanks

 

[Nolan Dalla]

I can't speak for the Eastern Edge and why he made a downshift in the percentage of his wagers.
But he did send me an e-mail and he explained his thoughts as follows:

BEGIN TEXT:

_______________________________

"0 for" weeks happen to the best of us. Its just the
variance taking over. I think this is better understood by poker
players than pure sports players. In fact I don't think the typical
sports bettor understands variance or how to deal with it.

Any way, thank goodness for the CMT last week. Saved my bankroll from taking a big hit........
Preliminary work looks like a lot of 60% to 65% stuff, maybe up to 9 and 1 or 2 CMTs. One way to deal with the variance is to make smaller plays but more of them. However your EV will suffer. This is the "trading profit for piece of mind" Strategy. Higher probability of having a winning week, but at the expense of not getting the maximum EV. I have always advised players to do this after a bad losing weeks. The small profit, or even just a small loss stops them from going ON TILT for the season. Stops me too.

 

[GENO]

Nolan I understand variance, I understand that it and the fact that Ofer days happen to the extent that I avoid having those sure to happen days WIPE me out by holding my risk to 10-12 % per session when down and 10-16% per session when up on my bankroll.

This seems to make more sense to me than making play adjustments after the fact, too late to shut the barn door after the horse has run out of it.

Everyone may want to read that last paragraph one more time. It is good old, down home on the farm, common sense.

 

[GENO]

I had not graded the above plays when I posted my reply above as I have not been on the web much the last 2 weeks.

The above sides went 3-9 for a minus 12.2 % of BR . The number of plays made would normally result in a better showing than this especially after the previous Ofer week.

Still the bottom line IMHO can be one thing only, that being total percent of bankroll placed at risk regardless of the number of plays. I guess you could say I am not the typical sports bettor, however the pure sports bettor will either learn this soon or soon become the former sports bettor.


One more down home on the farm piece of wisdom.



IF you lay your tomatoes on the train track rail to ripen you may end up with ketchup for your sandwich instead of tomato slices.