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Article Launched:11/26/2006 10:55:56 PM PST
THE Road to the Rose Bowl is less than one week away from being completed. And though it's not quite an open road, it's finally beginning to clear up a bit.
Next Sunday, the Bowl Championship Series games, including the Rose Bowl, will be set. A committee from the Tournament of Roses will meet formally today and will make its final decision on Sunday - after the final bowl Championship standings are released - as to which teams will meet in Pasadena.
"All of the questions won't be answered until we see the (final) polls," TofR CEO Mitch Dorger said Sunday. "But we'll talk through all of the possibilities and (the decision) should be straightforward."
To do that, it's important to think of this Rose Bowl on different terms. Think of this game as one between a "host team" and a "guest team."
The "host team" is easy. It will be one of two teams - Michigan or USC.
Whichever team finishes No. 2 in the BCS will wind up in the BCS Championship Game on Jan. 8 in Glendale, Ariz. The team that does not finish No. 2 will be in Pasadena on New Year's Day.
As of right now, that means BCS No. 3 Michigan is in line to become the "host team."
The Wolverines fell to No. 3 in Sunday's latest BCS standings behind USC. And it's a near certainty that USC would retain the BCS No. 2 spot with a victory this Saturday over rival UCLA.
But who's on the Rose Bowl "guest" list? Potential guests must have a few things going for them.
They must be ranked in the final BCS top 14.
In theory, that leaves 11 teams: BCS No. 4 through No. 14 - Florida, LSU, Louisville, Wisconsin, Boise State, Arkansas, Notre Dame, Auburn, Oklahoma, Rutgers and Virginia Tech.
There can be only two BCS teams from any one conference.
That eliminates Wisconsin and Auburn.
The champions of the ACC, Big 12 and SEC are locked into other games.
That eliminates Virginia Tech (an ACC also-ran), Oklahoma (which either wins the Big 12 or falls out of the top 14) and the winner between Florida and Arkansas.
The Rose Bowl is no place for one-hit wonders.
I say that eliminates Boise State, Rutgers and Louisville.
That leaves three teams: Notre Dame, the Florida/Arkansas loser, or LSU.
Notre Dame is the most appealing, but has been crushed by potential Rose Bowl opponents by a combined 46 points. I think they're out.
An Arkansas defeat gives it three losses. No thanks.
That leaves two teams: Florida or LSU.
If Florida wins the SEC Championship game, LSU is in the Rose Bowl. If the Gators lose, the committee has to choose.
My prediction:
BCS: Ohio State (No. 1) vs. USC (No. 2)
Rose: Michigan (at-large) vs. LSU (at-large)
Fiesta: Oklahoma (Big 12) vs. Boise State (guaranteed at-large)
Orange: Georgia Tech (ACC) vs. Rutgers (Big East)
Sugar: Arkansas (SEC) vs. Notre Dame (at-large)
Article Launched:11/26/2006 10:55:56 PM PST
THE Road to the Rose Bowl is less than one week away from being completed. And though it's not quite an open road, it's finally beginning to clear up a bit.
Next Sunday, the Bowl Championship Series games, including the Rose Bowl, will be set. A committee from the Tournament of Roses will meet formally today and will make its final decision on Sunday - after the final bowl Championship standings are released - as to which teams will meet in Pasadena.
"All of the questions won't be answered until we see the (final) polls," TofR CEO Mitch Dorger said Sunday. "But we'll talk through all of the possibilities and (the decision) should be straightforward."
To do that, it's important to think of this Rose Bowl on different terms. Think of this game as one between a "host team" and a "guest team."
The "host team" is easy. It will be one of two teams - Michigan or USC.
Whichever team finishes No. 2 in the BCS will wind up in the BCS Championship Game on Jan. 8 in Glendale, Ariz. The team that does not finish No. 2 will be in Pasadena on New Year's Day.
As of right now, that means BCS No. 3 Michigan is in line to become the "host team."
The Wolverines fell to No. 3 in Sunday's latest BCS standings behind USC. And it's a near certainty that USC would retain the BCS No. 2 spot with a victory this Saturday over rival UCLA.
But who's on the Rose Bowl "guest" list? Potential guests must have a few things going for them.
They must be ranked in the final BCS top 14.
In theory, that leaves 11 teams: BCS No. 4 through No. 14 - Florida, LSU, Louisville, Wisconsin, Boise State, Arkansas, Notre Dame, Auburn, Oklahoma, Rutgers and Virginia Tech.
There can be only two BCS teams from any one conference.
That eliminates Wisconsin and Auburn.
The champions of the ACC, Big 12 and SEC are locked into other games.
That eliminates Virginia Tech (an ACC also-ran), Oklahoma (which either wins the Big 12 or falls out of the top 14) and the winner between Florida and Arkansas.
The Rose Bowl is no place for one-hit wonders.
I say that eliminates Boise State, Rutgers and Louisville.
That leaves three teams: Notre Dame, the Florida/Arkansas loser, or LSU.
Notre Dame is the most appealing, but has been crushed by potential Rose Bowl opponents by a combined 46 points. I think they're out.
An Arkansas defeat gives it three losses. No thanks.
That leaves two teams: Florida or LSU.
If Florida wins the SEC Championship game, LSU is in the Rose Bowl. If the Gators lose, the committee has to choose.
My prediction:
BCS: Ohio State (No. 1) vs. USC (No. 2)
Rose: Michigan (at-large) vs. LSU (at-large)
Fiesta: Oklahoma (Big 12) vs. Boise State (guaranteed at-large)
Orange: Georgia Tech (ACC) vs. Rutgers (Big East)
Sugar: Arkansas (SEC) vs. Notre Dame (at-large)
