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https://www.sbnation.com/college-fo...uburn-alabama-football-iron-bowl-2017-preview
The 2 biggest questions for one of the biggest Iron Bowls ever
The winner takes the SEC West, bragging rights, and a shot at the Playoff. And both Alabama and Auburn face similar challenges on the field.
by Bill Connelly@SBN_BillC Nov 20, 2017, 12:25pm EST
The Iron Bowl has always been a regional holiday. It is a rivalry so bitter that it couldn?t be played for 40 years. It has killed trees and somehow made Paul Finebaum a national name. It is always a big deal.
Sometimes it?s an even bigger deal, however.
When Auburn and Alabama kick off in Auburn on Saturday afternoon, it will be the eighth time that an Iron Bowl has featured two top-10 teams. Most of the previous instances have produced classic games.
- 1963: No. 9 Auburn 10, No. 6 Alabama 8. Tiger backup quarterback Mailon Kent engineers a late score and outduels Joe Namath.
- 1971: No. 3 Alabama 31, No. 5 Auburn 7. The most hyped Iron Bowl to date features two unbeatens, but only one shows up.
- 1972: No. 9 Auburn 17, No. 2 Alabama 16. Punt Bama Punt!
- 1974: No. 2 Alabama 17, No. 7 Auburn 13. Unbeaten Bama falls victim to a fake punt but makes enough stops down the stretch.
- 1994: No. 4 Alabama 21, No. 6 Auburn 14. Unbeaten Bama lets a 21-0 lead dwindle to one touchdown but makes a last-minute fourth-down stop in Tide territory.
- 2010: No. 2 Auburn 28, No. 9 Alabama 27. The Camback.
- 2013: No. 5 Auburn 34, No. 1 Alabama 28. The Kick Six.
(I also can?t help but mention that, while Alabama leads the overall series, 45-35-1, Auburn won four of the seven biggest games. I?m assuming Auburn fans already noticed that.)
So what?s in store for their eighth top-10 meeting? Can Auburn, a four-point underdog, wreck Bama?s national title plans, just as it did in 2013? Can the Tide survive their trip to the Plains without another named game?
Two big, and rather similar, questions come to mind when looking at this game?s matchups.
Let?s walk through them.
<aside id="3ifuFs" style="box-sizing: border-box; text-decoration-line: inherit; vertical-align: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(30, 30, 30);"></aside>Question No. 1: Can Alabama protect Jalen Hurts?
When you peruse Alabama?s statistical profile, you don?t exactly find many weaknesses. In bigger or smaller categories, the Crimson Tide are mostly in the top 30 at worst. But one particular pair of rankings does stand out:
Alabama?s offense ranks 103rd in Adjusted Sack Rate, and Auburn?s defense ranks eighth.
Hurts is one of the best rushing quarterbacks in FBS. He picks his spots well, he?s big enough to break weak tackles, and in two seasons as Alabama?s starter, he?s rushed 272 times (not including sacks) for 1,855 yards and 21 touchdowns. Under new coordinator Brian Daboll, he?s cut his rush frequency from 11.5 per game to 9.1, but he can still scoot.
The problem with a lot of good runners, however, is that they trust that their legs will bail them out of trouble, and they?re not always correct. While the national sack rate tends to hover around 5.5 percent, only one of the top 10 non-option rushing quarterbacks (Mississippi State?s Nick Fitzgerald) is under 5 percent. And of the 10, Hurts? 9 percent sack rate is lower than that of only UNLV?s Armani Rogers (10 percent).
This is important for a number of reasons. For starters, Auburn is one of the best in the country at leveraging you into passing downs. Ask Georgia. The Tigers rank first in Standard Downs S&P+, allowing just a 36 percent success rate on such downs. They aren?t necessarily all that disruptive against the run (just 57th in stuff rate), but they hold you to minimal games and force you behind schedule.
Bama?s offense when behind schedule: good, but not great.
Alabama?s offense ranks 36th in Passing Downs S&P+ and 69th in passing-downs success rate; Auburn?s defense ranks fifth and 11th, respectively.
Passing downs (second-and-8 or more, third/fourth-and-5 or more) are when turnovers and sacks tend to occur, and in their tightest games of the year, the Tide were dreadful on passing downs. They had a ghastly 5 percent success rate on PDs against Florida State, 22 percent against LSU, and 25 percent against MSU.
(The only closer game in which Bama was able to bail itself out: Texas A&M, against whom the Tide had a 40 percent PDs success rate ... but only a 33 percent standard downs success rate. Odd game.)
If Auburn is able to slow Alabama?s run game down ? and it also bears mentioning that Bama is only 29th in Rushing S&P+ ? then the Tigers could harass Hurts and force some three-and-outs. That starting Bama guard Ross Pierschbacher is questionable with a high ankle sprain could make matters even dicier for Bama, both in run blocking and pass protection.
Flipping the field and keeping the home crowd engaged? Sounds like a pretty good formula for an upset.
Subquestion: Can Auburn force Hurts to go to someone besides Calvin Ridley?
Hurts? general pass progression has, on many occasion over the last two years, been as follows:
- Look for Calvin Ridley.
- Run.
It?s good to have a reliable No. 1 receiver, but if a defense can slow Ridley down, where might Hurts go with the ball? The next three top Bama targets (seniors Robert Foster and Cam Simsand freshman Jerry Jeudy) have combined for only 69 targets, 35 catches, and 545 yards.
Guys have had their moments. Jeudy had three catches for 48 yards against Tennessee but has zero since. Foster had a 52-yard reception against Colorado State. Freshman Henry Ruggs III has five touchdowns among his seven receptions. Freshman DeVonta Smith caught the game-winning score against MSU.
At some point, though, Bama might need a deputy receiver who can catch five, six, or seven passes in a given game. Who might that be?
Auburn?s done a mostly great job against No. 1 receivers this year. LSU?s D.J. Chark caught five of six balls for 150 yards, but he was the exception. Against seven other power conference opponents, the Tigers have allowed an average of seven targets, four catches, and 51 yards per game to No. 1 receivers. If that?s what Ridley ends up with, the Tigers would live with that.
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Question No. 2: How does Auburn stay on schedule?
Alabama?s offense is a bit underrated. Fans pretend it stinks because it?s weaker than the Bama defense, but an Off. S&P+ ranking of 16th is far from embarrassing.
The problem for opponents tends to be that, even if you are one of the lucky few to really limit the Tide offense, you still have to score.
As I wrote a couple of years ago, only super-efficient teams tend to score on Alabama.
Saban destroys inefficient offenses. Eats them for breakfast with one of those Little Debbie sandwich cookies.
Let's break out a stat from my toy box (one that will be offered soon within my Football Study Hall stat profiles): Success Rate+. It is an opponent-adjusted version of the success rate measure defined here. Every play is deemed a success or failure based on down-and-distance criteria: gaining 50 percent of necessary yardage on first down, 70 percent on second down and 100 percent on third and fourth down. Success rate is basically an on-base percentage for college football, and it allows us to track which teams are staying on schedule and ahead of the chains, so to speak.
Of Bama's 12 losses [between 2008 and mid-2015], six came to teams ranked in the SR+ top five and 10 came to teams in the top 20. (This table further emphasizes just how incredibly out-of-character Bama's loss to Oklahoma was, and for both teams.) If you're able to effectively move the ball four to six yards at a time and avoid passing downs, only then can you utilize the tempo and spread principles we've seen Alabama struggle with from time to time. Plenty of spread offenses have failed miserably against the Tide in this regard.
Since I wrote that, the only team Bama has lost to was Clemson in last year?s national title game.Let's break out a stat from my toy box (one that will be offered soon within my Football Study Hall stat profiles): Success Rate+. It is an opponent-adjusted version of the success rate measure defined here. Every play is deemed a success or failure based on down-and-distance criteria: gaining 50 percent of necessary yardage on first down, 70 percent on second down and 100 percent on third and fourth down. Success rate is basically an on-base percentage for college football, and it allows us to track which teams are staying on schedule and ahead of the chains, so to speak.
Of Bama's 12 losses [between 2008 and mid-2015], six came to teams ranked in the SR+ top five and 10 came to teams in the top 20. (This table further emphasizes just how incredibly out-of-character Bama's loss to Oklahoma was, and for both teams.) If you're able to effectively move the ball four to six yards at a time and avoid passing downs, only then can you utilize the tempo and spread principles we've seen Alabama struggle with from time to time. Plenty of spread offenses have failed miserably against the Tide in this regard.
2016 Clemson ranked first in SR+.
2017 Auburn? Currently ninth.
The Tigers have grown into themselves, responding to a 14-6 loss to Clemson with a four-game 42-point average. Since a second-half stumble and loss to LSU, they have averaged 44.
Clemson and LSU are the only teams to hold them under 6.3 yards per play. Auburn has torched two excellent defenses, with 40 points and averaged 6.9 yards per play against Georgia (No. 11 in Def. S&P+) and 49 points and 9.1 yards per play against Mississippi State (16th).
The formula is simple: soften you up with Kerryon Johnson, then hit you deep. Johnson missed the Clemson and Mercer games in September and averaged only 2.7 yards per carry against Missouri. But he's grown into the feature back role that came open when Kamryn Pettway got hurt.
Over his last seven games, Johnson has averaged 27 carries and 141 yards per game. He doesn't have to do everything; he just needs to keep his average over about 5 yards per carry for the defense to fail against run/pass options and play action.
The Georgia game was a master class in patience. Jarrett Stidham's first 15 pass attempts of that game produced eight completions for 60 yards and a sack. As UGA began to strain, however, and as Johnson found more room, Stidham began to get more aggressive. Over his last 10 attempts, he completed eight of nine throws for 154 yards and took only one more sack. He finished with touchdown passes of 32, 42, and 55 yards.
This all sounds great. But following this formula means running on Alabama.
And while this team isn't quite Saban's best (and while this defense is far from healthy), the Tide still destroy your run game. They are fourth in Rushing S&P+, are allowing gains of five-plus yards on just 29 percent of rushes (third-lowest rate in the country), and have allowed just two rushes of 30-plus yards all season.
You don't need 30-yarders to beat Alabama, but you at least need five-yarders. Will Auburn find the space?
It's not surprising to note that in the Tigers' two losses, AU backs averaged just 4.4 yards per carry; it's also not surprising that Stidham, therefore, struggled to pass. He was 22-for-50 for 244 yards and took 14 sacks (11 against Clemson). Success leads to more success for Auburn, and failure leads to more failure.
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Depending on where you look, Vegas has Alabama as either a 4- or 4.5-point favorite at the moment. My S&P+ ratings see it even closer than that, giving the Tide a projected 2.8-point advantage, which correlates to just a 56 percent win probability.
The game could very well come down to who can run the ball and who can?t. You don?t want a piece of either one of these defenses on passing downs, so who does a better job of avoiding them?
