The Judge's Docket - NCAAF Week 10

The Judge

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LSU vs. TENNESSEE ? Saturday, November 4th ? 3:30 PM EST
The Tigers come into Neyland Stadium as favorites despite the fact that their only two losses have come in their only two road games. Most imagined that this line would be reversed for this game as the Volunteers have lost only once this season and are ranked higher than LSU but yet the linesmakers have found that they are not worthy of being favored in this SEC matchup. Guess what, I agree with them.

Tennessee prepares for this one after winning two very difficult games against Alabama and South Carolina and the win on Spurrier?s home field was one that at least temporarily, put an end to the Ole Ball Coach?s domination over Fulmer. Nice emotional win for the Vols but the Cocks do not really compare with Tennessee?s opponent this week and since the season opener where California was manhandled, this team has played nothing more than slightly above average football. Other than blowouts over Marshall and Memphis and a nice win over a down Georgia team, Fulmer?s bunch has not really impressed me.

Now some could say the same about LSU as most would not have expected them to have two losses at this point in the season but the road losses to Auburn and Florida are hardly anything for Miles and his team to hang their head about. Auburn was able to put up only seven points on the Tigers and Florida is the only team yet to score three touchdowns against this team. In fact, other than Florida and if not for some late garbage points by Mississippi State, no team has scored more than a touchdown on LSU this season. This squad has the No. 1 ranked defense in the nation and that is not apt to change this week. The secondary has allowed only three passing touchdowns in eight games while pulling down eleven interceptions. Considering that Vols QB Ainge?s passing game is pretty much the only threat and that he is somewhat hobbled this week, I have to believe that Tennessee is in trouble as they are averaging just 59 yards rushing per game in SEC play.

LSU?s has had two weeks off since their last two blowouts victories over Kentucky and Fresno State and while that may not be much to brag about, it does mean that this team is very well rested while Tennessee is coming off two very physically draining games. The Tiger?s offense is statistically better than Tennessee?s in virtually every category and while stats do not win games, there is no arguing that they are much better balanced on this side of the ball and will surely be able to score a few points. I?m not so sure that the same can be said for the Volunteers and unless Fulmer has a secret weapon that he has been waiting until this game to break out, I don?t give them a chance.
The Verdict: LSU (-2?) 8 Units

RICE vs. UTEP ? Saturday, November 4th ? 9:00 PM EST
Mike Price and his Miners had high hopes entering this season after the coach had turned this program completely around in his first two years in El Paso, unfortunately UTEP dropped two early games and has been very inconsistent this season standing at 4-4 with the Owls coming to town.

The inconsistency of this team rests squarely on the shoulders of QB Jordan Palmer who has over 2,100 yards passing this season but has thrown 11 interceptions to go along with his 15 passing touchdowns and really has only had one stand out game against a defenseless New Mexico State team. To be fair, Palmer has been asked to carry the entire load with his arm as the Miners have averaged only 76.4 yards rushing causing him to force plays in an attempt to hang with opponents. Truthfully, the bigger problem has been a porous defense that is allowing over 29 points per game. Only Tulane has been held to under three touchdowns this year and they even managed 20 points against the Miners.

The Rice Owls have certainly had their ups and downs as well. They started their season with four losses albeit against teams like Houston, Texas. UCLA and Florida State, but I like the direction that first year HC Todd Graham has this team going. Graham brought a very young yet talented coaching staff to assist him in revamping the program and while no one was expecting miracles, the Owls are definitely showing some promise. Despite missing most of three games QB Chase Clement is completing nearly 60% of his passes for 180.5 yards per game with 14 touchdowns and four interceptions. Clement?s go to guy is WR Jarett Dillard who has scored eight touchdowns on 429 yards over the past four games. Dillard now leads the nation with 60 total receptions, ranks 3rd nationally with 769 receiving yards and has a touchdown catch in 10 consecutive games.

Since Clement has returned from his injury, Rice has covered three out of their last four games and the quarterback appears to be on his game having thrown for 12 touchdowns in those contests. I picture a long day for the UTEP secondary and should probably mention that the Owls rushed for 330 and 250 yards in their last two games. I love the points here as UTEP has won only one game (Tulane) by more than a touchdown and Palmer simply does not have what it takes to carry this team by himself. I read somewhere this week that Chase Clement makes Rice a live dog and Jordan Palmer makes UTEP a bad favorite. I couldn?t agree more as Rice is 4-1 ATS with Clement playing and this Miner team has not been able to hold a lead all season. A small moneyline play might actually be in order here as this line is distorted in our favor by Rice?s tough out of conference schedule and the midseason injury to their quarterback.
The Verdict: RICE (+8?) 5 Units
 
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Dr. Fade

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Judge, God Bless You. I can tell you are a true football man. I've been an LSU believer all year. This situation does NOT get any sweeter. LSU WILL WIN this game. Tennessee has already overchieved and saved Fat Fill's job. Watch these LSU a'tletes perfahm on D on Sat. I can't wait.....


LSU 26
Tennessee 13



God Bless America Land That I Love....,
 

pt1gard

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good line, saw it was 4-5 all day ...

lsu has had there chances vs fl and auburn, wodner if 3rd times the charm ... TN always fux me so gl ...
 

Dr. Fade

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good line, saw it was 4-5 all day ...

lsu has had there chances vs fl and auburn, wodner if 3rd times the charm ... TN always fux me so gl ...

Listen Haskell, the line was 3 all week. I do see 5 currently. That's alright, it needs to be more than a TD to keep the sharps from chompin' at this bit. Good luck w/your Vols bro. Get back to me @ .00 on the clock- thanks
 

The Judge

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It is looking like I will have a big card today. Here are some early games I like.

2* - South Florida (+4?)
2* - Clemson (-19?)
2* - Texas Tech (-16 ?)
 

pt1gard

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whats your point, fade, this was posted the same day, I was curious how the line was 2.5 when i saw 4 on friday morning everywhere? and who said im on the Vols? lighten up, kenny osmond knows the sopranos ;)
 
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The Judge

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whats your point, fade, this was posted the same day, I was curious how the line was 2.5 when i saw 4 on friday morning everywhere? and who said im on the Vols? lighten up, kenny osmond knows the sopranos ;)
Played LSU at BetJamaica yesterday afternoon. I should have checked the current lines before I posted as I agree that it is somewhat misleading. Regardless, I think the Tigers win this one by 10 or more. GL


Adding:
2* - Hawaii (-24?)
 

pt1gard

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thanx judge, wasnt doubting your veracity, was looking for 2.5 myself


ps great day BTW!
 
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The Judge

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Pretty happy with these results:

8* - LSU (-2?)
5* - Rice (+8?)
2* - South Florida (+4?)

2* - Clemson (-19?)
2* - Texas Tech (-16?)
2* - Hawaii (-24?)


Posted this parlay last Wednesday which came in as well:

Parlay
104 Boise State -22 -110 for Game
106 Louisville -1 -110 for Game
148 Texas Tech -17? -110 for Game
184 Texas -17 -110 for Game

Risk: $25.00 To Win: $275.00

5-1 for 16.8 units on the day PLUS the parlay to make me very happy. :grins:
 
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