BOISE STATE vs. NEVADA ? Saturday, November 25th ? 4:00 PM EST
Boise is one win away from becoming just the second non-BCS conference team to win a berth in a BCS Bowl game so lack of motivation is not likely to be a factor here. A loss today in Reno will probably mean that they play in the MCS Computers Bowl on their home field which is not quite as glamorous as playing in the Fiesta Bowl on New Years Day.
The Broncos have to be feeling good about their chances today as they have won six straight over the Wolf Pack and Nevada has never beaten Boise State as a member of the WAC conference. Additionally, Boise has lost just one game in conference play since 2002 and has remained undefeated to this point by pounding the football on the ground to a tune of nearly 227 yards per game. This ball control philosophy has Boise State averaging nearly 40 points per game but they have not exactly played a blockbuster schedule in the WAC as their combined record against WAC opponents is 28-46. New Mexico State scored 28, Idaho 26 and Fresno State managed 21 points so clearly their defense has bent but not broken; at least yet. Star RB Ian Anderson has rushed for 1,455 yards this season but sat out last week after a four day hospital stay nursing a collapsed lung. Anderson is suiting up to play in this game but one has to question how ready he will really be.
Despite Boise?s past success against Nevada, this Wolf Pack team bears no resemblance to those of years past. After getting off to a slow start with two losses to open the season, Nevada has won eight of their last nine including five straight coming into this game. More importantly, since the Pack was 0-2, they have covered the spread in each of those nine games, averaging 36 points per game. Over the last five games, Nevada has scored 200 points while allowing their opponents to score only 35 and even more incredible is the fact that they have allowed their last three victims to score only once; combined. On the season, the defense is giving up only 17.3 points per game and (I love this part) Nevada has not lost a home game since their 2005 opener against Washington State. One more thing; the Pack leads the nation in turnover margin at +15.
San Jose State almost pulled it off two weeks ago and considering that three of Boise?s wins have come by 7 points or less and the combined record of Boise?s WAC opponents is 28-46, I see Nevada winning this one outright as a home dog. This play is my one and only NCAAF Game of the Year.
The Verdict: Nevada Wolf Pack (+3) 10 Units
Other Plays:
Louisville (-10) 5 Units
BYU (-10?) 3 Units
Hawaii (-18?) 3 Units
W. Virginia (-20?) 3 Units
Boise is one win away from becoming just the second non-BCS conference team to win a berth in a BCS Bowl game so lack of motivation is not likely to be a factor here. A loss today in Reno will probably mean that they play in the MCS Computers Bowl on their home field which is not quite as glamorous as playing in the Fiesta Bowl on New Years Day.
The Broncos have to be feeling good about their chances today as they have won six straight over the Wolf Pack and Nevada has never beaten Boise State as a member of the WAC conference. Additionally, Boise has lost just one game in conference play since 2002 and has remained undefeated to this point by pounding the football on the ground to a tune of nearly 227 yards per game. This ball control philosophy has Boise State averaging nearly 40 points per game but they have not exactly played a blockbuster schedule in the WAC as their combined record against WAC opponents is 28-46. New Mexico State scored 28, Idaho 26 and Fresno State managed 21 points so clearly their defense has bent but not broken; at least yet. Star RB Ian Anderson has rushed for 1,455 yards this season but sat out last week after a four day hospital stay nursing a collapsed lung. Anderson is suiting up to play in this game but one has to question how ready he will really be.
Despite Boise?s past success against Nevada, this Wolf Pack team bears no resemblance to those of years past. After getting off to a slow start with two losses to open the season, Nevada has won eight of their last nine including five straight coming into this game. More importantly, since the Pack was 0-2, they have covered the spread in each of those nine games, averaging 36 points per game. Over the last five games, Nevada has scored 200 points while allowing their opponents to score only 35 and even more incredible is the fact that they have allowed their last three victims to score only once; combined. On the season, the defense is giving up only 17.3 points per game and (I love this part) Nevada has not lost a home game since their 2005 opener against Washington State. One more thing; the Pack leads the nation in turnover margin at +15.
San Jose State almost pulled it off two weeks ago and considering that three of Boise?s wins have come by 7 points or less and the combined record of Boise?s WAC opponents is 28-46, I see Nevada winning this one outright as a home dog. This play is my one and only NCAAF Game of the Year.
The Verdict: Nevada Wolf Pack (+3) 10 Units
Other Plays:
Louisville (-10) 5 Units
BYU (-10?) 3 Units
Hawaii (-18?) 3 Units
W. Virginia (-20?) 3 Units
