The Judge's Docket - NCAAF Week 5

The Judge

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Texas Tech vs. Texas A&M ? September 30th, 3:30 EST
The Aggies and the Raiders absolutely hate each other and if you ask me, this rivalry does not get nearly enough publicity. The meeting between these two schools each season is always fun to watch although both have been out of the hunt for the Big 12 Title for several years. However, the season is young and the winner of this conference opener will have the upper hand in competing against Oklahoma and Texas for the Big 12 South?s seat in the conference championship game.

The Red Raiders entered this season with many expecting them to take their game to the next level but when this typically high scoring offense was held to a single field goal by TCU, the doubters stepped forward. Among them was Tech HC Mike Leach who very publicly ripped his team as being a collection of "prima donnas, showboats and frontrunners." Leach promised to make wholesale personnel changes for last week?s game against Southeastern Louisiana but failed to follow through with his threat and the Raiders dropped a 62-0 win on the Div. IAA school in a much needed confidence builder.

Make no mistake, Leach?s Triangle Offense can be deadly and has in fact produced the nation?s passing leaders for each of the five past seasons. Tech?s quarterback du jour in 2006 is Graham Harrell who has already passed for 1,167 yards and 12 touchdowns in three and a half games. He was rejoined in the lineup last week by WR Jarrett Hicks who had been waiting on an eligibility ruling from the NCAA and did not play in the first three games. Hicks is the real deal and his presence on the field against the Aggie?s five defensive back scheme will be a factor in this week?s game as the Techsters look to take advantage of a defense that was ranked among the worst in the nation in 2005 allowing 304.6 yards per game. The Texas A&M secondary was horrific last year and the hope in College Station is that new DC Gary Darnell?s 4-2-5 scheme will make a difference with the extra defensive back. Tech is certainly the team to put that to the test.

Aggie QB Stephen McGee is off to a seemingly nice start himself with 820 yards passing and 6 touchdowns but due to the very marginal competition A&M has face thus far, those numbers may be more than a little bit optimistic as the Ags move into conference play. It is one thing to beat out the likes of The Citadel, ULaLa and LA Tech by a combined score of 131-24 but the 28-24 win over Army may actually give us a more accurate picture of this team?s true potential. For example, The Citadel had 173 yards and 9 first downs at halftime and Louisiana Tech drove into A&M territory on three of its first four possessions. I am not impressed with this Aggie defense in the least. Against Army two weeks ago, A&M was a four touchdown favorite at home yet needed a goal line stand in the closing minute of the game to avoid an upset.

Franchione has done nothing to improve this Aggie team since taking over four years ago and Bama is should be glad he dumped them when he did. Leach on the other hand has turned tech into one of the most exciting teams to watch in the nation and certainly has his team?s attention going into this game. I really can?t see A&M hanging with the aerial assault that the Raiders will bring to this matchup.
The Verdict: Texas Tech +3 (4 Units)

Houston vs. Miami ? September 30th, 6:00 EST
After already dropping games to Florida State and Louisville, the Canes? season is over as far as any National Championship hopes are concerned. Miami HC Coker has surely begun updating his resume as he will probably be allowed to finish out the season but an upset this week by Houston this week could change that outlook. It would also catapult the Cougars into the BCS bowl debate and QB Kevin Kolb into Heisman contention.

The Coogs? 4-0 record represents their best start since 1990 and they are coming off of a win over Oklahoma State. That victory was the school?s first against a Big 12 team since they were left behind following the dismantling of the Southwest Conference in 1996 and the team?s confidence level is sky high. This Houston squad has not been on most gambler?s radar but has quietly become the #3 ranked offense in the country behind the steady improvement of Kolb who has completed of 70% of his passes this season for 1,193 yards, 12 touchdowns and only one interception. The Cougars have shown good balance on offense by averaging 173 yards rushing with TB Jackie Battle gaining almost 5 yards per carry and the receivers and tight end are splitting the downfield duty nicely with enough of a mix to keep the secondary guessing.

It was rumored at the beginning of the season that Miami had a fearsome defense but after giving up 389 yards and 4 touchdowns to Louisville two weeks ago, I have to think that it was just that; a rumor. Bear in mind that the Cardinals were without the services of their top two offensive threats in their embarrassing 31-7 rout of the Hurricanes. Hell, Florida A&M was even able to score 10 points on Miami a week after they were held to 14 by freaking Delaware State. On offense, the Canes have struggled in both games against Div IA opponents generating a combined 66 yards rushing in those games and scoring just one offensive touchdown and a total of 17 points.

Houston?s Kolb is brimming with confidence after his performance last week when he completed 21 of 28 passes for 313 yards, four touchdowns while rushing for an additional 42 yards on 11 carries. This is just two many points to give to an up and coming team like the Cougars playing against an unusually anemic Miami squad with a probable lame duck coach. It is very possible that we could witness a huge upset here.
The Verdict: Houston +17 (4 Units)
 

The Judge

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Final Card
4* - Houston (+17)
4* - Texas Tech (+3)
2* - Florida (-15)
2* - Utah (-4?)
2* - Arizona St. (-2?)
2* - Washington St. (+17)
2* - California (-8)
 

Sun Tzu

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Not so sure on Cougar High. Miami has big issues, but UH hasnt beaten anybody that matters. Geez they had to come from behind to beat Rice by 1. Bottom line is what is Canr mentality and I dont have any idea. Wouldnt shock me if they won by 40 or if they lost outight.

Obviously I am all over TT as well.

Gl
 

stwoody

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Your Honor,

I enjoyed reading these fine write-ups! I think your analysis of the Miami game is spot on! I love the points in this match-up.....and I don't believe Miami has the cajones enough to fight for their "lame duck" coach. Houston similar to Louisville in passing attack, and I feel strongly that they will put up points against Hurricanes. Think the points are a big gift, and I might put a tad on the ML as an upset here wouldn't surprise me! One things for sure......this team doesn't evoke fear into anyone this year, and Hurricanes appeared to have left it all on the field against Florida St. Good Luck with your play! Orrr good luck to us.
Stwoody
 

The Judge

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4* - Houston (+17) PENDING
4* - Texas Tech (+3) WINNER
2* - Florida (-15) PUSH
2* - Utah (-4?) LOSER
2* - Arizona St. (-2?) LOSER
2* - Washington St. (+17) PENDING
2* - California (-8) WINNER

Off to a decent start with the first of my big games coming in and Houston looks like they have what it takes to at least hang with the Canes.

Come on Wazzu!
 

The Judge

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4* - Houston (+17) WINNER
4* - Texas Tech (+3) WINNER
2* - Florida (-15) PUSH
2* - Utah (-4?) LOSER
2* - Arizona St. (-2?) LOSER
2* - Washington St. (+17) WINNER
2* - California (-8) WINNER
4-2-1 on the day for +7.6 Units

BTW, Cal will win the PAC 10.
 
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