The Judge's Docket - NCAAF Week Five

[The Judge]

After last week?s 0-3 debacle, The Docket?s record for the 2005 NCAA Football season now stands at 6-7-2 and it is time to turn things around. Most teams are beginning conference play and this week I will provide an analysis on each game in the Big 12 Conference where I hope that my familiarity with those teams will provide a better insight in the match-ups.


TEXAS vs. MISSOURI ? October 1st, 12:00 PM EDT
Missouri QB Brad Smith leads an offense that ranks 3rd in the nation in rushing with 287.3 yards per game and has accounted for 10 touchdowns in three games. Smith can beat you with his arm and his legs as demonstrated by his 339 yards rushing and 748 yards passing, including six touchdown passes. The Tigers have averaged nearly 44 points per game with their lowest scoring total coming against New Mexico. Those 35 points were two touchdowns more that the Lobos have allowed any other team to score in their four games. The Missouri defense is average and allowed Arkansas State to score 17 points, Troy managed 21 points and the Lobos dropped 45 on them.

The Texas Longhorns come into Columbia averaging 45 points per game and have five different running backs averaging at least 5.8 yards per carry. Freshman RB Jamaal Charles has looked phenomenal in gaining 350 yards on only 40 carries and of course QB Vince Young is a big play threat every time he touches the ball. The Longhorn defense is one of the best in the nation and against weak teams like Louisiana Lafayette and Rice, has allowed only 3 and 10 points respectively. However, Ohio State was able to score 22 on the Horns and I expect that Smith and Co. can do better than that.
The Verdict: TEXAS/MISSOURI Over (61)


BAYLOR vs. TEXAS A&M ? October 1st, 12:20 PM EDT
Don?t look now but Baylor is 3-0 on the season for the first time since 1994 and the team has apparently gained some confidence in themselves and their ability to compete on the football field. "We have our moments and show flashes that we can be good.? said WR Trent Shelton, ?We've just got to put everything together. But once we put a whole game together, with the way the defense has been playing, I think we can be unstoppable." Easy there Trent, it?s alright to pimp your chest a bit but let?s be realistic, your wins have come against SMU, Samford and Army. That?s not exactly the resume of a team that should be considered ?unstoppable? but go ahead and enjoy your moment in the sun.

The Aggies opened their season at Clemson with a disappointing 25-24 loss in a game where they did not even allow the Tigers to score an offensive touchdown but did allow a whopping six field goals. That game was followed by two weeks off before A&M took out their frustration on an unsuspecting SMU squad by putting up 61 points. It is beginning to look like Aggie QB Reggie McNeal is going to have to carry this team by himself and considering that he has 776 yards passing and 286 yards rushing in three games, he might just pull it off. Courtney Lewis also has accumulated 271 yards rushing and the Aggies have more than doubled their opponents scoring by putting up 129 points so far this season.

The win at Army was good for the Bears especially considering that they had previously lost 44 of 47 games away from home. While the Baylor players are pleased with their play against three of the worst teams in the nation, HC Guy Morriss doesn?t sound too encouraged. "I'm happy we're 3-0 and got the win, but I was a little bit unhappy with the way our offense played from a consistency standpoint," Morriss said. "There were times we looked pretty sharp and then shot our foot off." That was after the Bears beat Army by 10 points and while the Aggie defense is not exactly reminding anyone of the Wrecking Crew of days gone by, it is safe to say that they have more than what it should take to control the Bears? anemic offense.

For this game, the Bears will travel to Kyle Field to take on A&M after humiliating them last year in a shocking 35-34 upset that I am pretty sure that no one in College Station (or Texas for that matter) has forgotten about. The word revenge is thrown around quite a bit in discussions about college football but make no mistake, REVENGE and PAYBACK are what this game is all about if you are an Aggie. Regardless of all of the silly traditions this university is known for, they are fiercely proud of their school and of their football and the student body will be out in full force for this game. The Ags nearly stumbled last week against Texas State as they were clearly not motivated for that game but this week Baylor provides all of the motivation they need and the Bears will be lucky to get out of this one alive.
The Verdict: TEXAS A&M (-24)

There are my early plays in the Big 12 this week. I'll be back with the rest of the match-ups after my head quits spinning.

 

[The Judge]

COLORADO vs. OKLAHOMA STATE ? October 1st, 2:00 PM EDT
The Colorado defense has to be feeling pretty good about holding Miami to 394 yards last week and the Buffs have now held team they have faced to less than 400 yards. They entered the game ranked 8th nationally in rushing defense, allowed the Canes only 123 yards on the ground, with 38 coming on one play. On offense, Colorado had to muster three 4th quarter touchdowns to take down Colorado State, beat up on a winless New Mexico State team and scored a single field goal last week against Miami. Buff QB Joel Klatt has a nice 65.7% completion ratio but has thrown only two touchdowns and three interceptions and has no standout receivers.

Oklahoma State has allowed only 23 points in winning all three of their games this season ranking them 3rd in the nation and the Cowboys are also ranked 15th in total defense. At quarterback, red-shirt freshman Bobby Reid had been splitting time with sophomore Donovan Woods before getting the start last week against Arkansas State and went 8 of 21 passing for 148 yards including a 41 yard touchdown to Woods' brother, D'Juan Woods. Woods (the receiver) has been drawing double team coverage in all three games so far but was still able to frequently get open against Arky State. The Cowboys have a solid place kicker in Bruce Redding who converted on field goals of 52 and 32 yards.

Colorado hasn?t shown me much yet and Klatt, who suffered a sprained toe last week, was limping badly after the game. If he aggravates the injury again today, the Buffalo are in trouble. I can not quite figure out why Colorado is favored in this road game against an undefeated Cowboy team so I will make this a small play.
The Verdict: OKLAHOMA STATE (+3.5)


IOWA STATE vs. NEBRASKA ? October 1st, 3:30 PM EDT
Nebraska has long been known as one of one of the toughest places in the nation to play, albeit the Huskers performance in the past few years has diminished that reputation somewhat. It seems that no one has had a more difficult time of winning in Lincoln than Iowa State since they have not been able to do so in 45 years. Considering the fact that the Cyclones make the trip from Ames to Lincoln every other year, that is an overwhelming statistic.

Iowa State was featured last week in a rare television appearance as they traveled to West Point only to nearly fall flat on their faces in a close 28-21 winning effort to advance to 3-0 on the season. In the first half the Cyclones were obviously still celebrating their near shutout over their in-state rival Iowa from their previous game and had to rally with 21 points in the 2nd half to overcome the Cadets who held ISU to 73 yards rushing in the game. The Cyclone win over Iowa knocked the Hawkeyes out of the Top 10 and it was the exceptional play of the defense that was the difference in holding Iowa to only three points.

The Nebraska defense has allowed a total of only 13 points in their three games and you would think by looking at that number that the famed Black Shirts were back in force but before we get too carried away, let?s examine the offenses they have faced. Nebraska cancelled their scheduled opener with Houston to play Maine at home and if that was in order to get a confidence builder to start the season, they were successful by beating the Black Bears 25-7. That was followed with another homestand against Wake Forest who they also handled in a 31-3 victory before welcoming Pittsburg to Lincoln last week and squeaking out a 7-6 win thanks to two consecutive botched field goal attempts by Pitt in the last 10 seconds of the game. Those three teams now have a combined record of 2 wins and 8 losses with one of those wins coming against William Penn. I know, I never knew they had a football team either.

Bill Callahan was supposed to be the savior of this Cornholio team that has floundered miserably since the departure of Tom Osborne. However, in his 2nd year at the helm, the West Coast Offense that he has installed has so far only managed a mere 399 passing yards on 89 attempts, with a 43.8% completion rate to go along with three interceptions and no touchdowns in 2005. The Iowa State defense has to be licking their chops over the possibilities as they have already generated ten turnovers including seven interceptions.

The public has a very short term memory and is surely looking at last week?s game against Army and thinking that the Cyclones have no chance against this stingy Nebraska defense rather than looking at the Iowa State defense that held the No. 8 team in the country to 3 points on September 10th. It took everything the Nebraska offense had to squeeze out seven points on their home field against a bad Pittsburgh team and I will be surprised if they do much better than that against the Cyclones. The 45 year streak ends Saturday.
The Verdict: IOWA STATE (+4)

I will post the last two Big 12 games by 5:00 ET.

 

[The Judge]

KANSAS vs. TEXAS TECH ? October 1st, 8:00 PM EDT
Two more undefeated teams square off in this conference opener but that probably should not even be a consideration in handicapping this game as both teams should be ashamed of their non-conference schedules this year. Kansas has now beaten up on Florida Atlantic, Appalachian State and Louisiana Tech while Texas Tech has simply destroyed their weak competition in Florida International, Sam Houston State and Indiana State by scoring 56, 80 and 63 points while allowing only 31 points combined in all three games.

Despite winning all three of their early games, Kansas has not really been able to get there offense going and QB Brian Luke has now passed for only 568 yards for four touchdowns and three interceptions against some rather suspect defenses. In their last game, the Jayhawks were actually tied 7-7 with Louisiana Tech at halftime and finally put some points on the board by capitalizing on great field position. They were able to put together only one scoring drive of more that 45 yards in the entire game in a 34-14 win and were aided greatly by intercepting four Bulldog passes.

Red Raider HC Mike Leach has rolled out the latest sharpshooter to run his high flying offense in QB Cody Hughes who appears to be capable of picking up the reins of his record setting predecessors. Amazingly, Tech has led the nation in passing every year since 2001 and Hughes already has 1,117 passing yards this season with over a 75% completion rate. Leach has shown that his offense will run up the score on a team anytime they gets the chance and the Jayhawks? secondary is simply the next victim in line.

Against Kansas, Danny Embick threw for 299 yards and three touchdowns for Florida Atlantic, who this year are playing their first full Division I-A schedule. Richie Williams of Applachian State passed for 159 yards on 18 of 25 attempts and the Mountaineers have still never won a game west of the Mississippi nor beaten any Division I-A opponent except Wake Forest. Louisiana Tech?s QB Matt Kubik went 18 for 32 for 186 yards through the air against the Jayhawks and the Bulldogs held Kansas to 73 yards in the first half of that game. Now Kansas gets to roll into Lubbock to try and stop the aerial display that Texas tech has become famous for. Good freaking luck!

Texas Tech has been a great bet at home as indicated by the following statistics. The Red Raiders are an unbelievable 47-6 ATS in their last 53 home wins against conference opponents. More recently they are 12-4 ATS at home as a favorite and 5-2 ATS in their last seven home games when laying double digits. On the other side of the coin, Kansas is only 1-14 ATS as Big 12 underdogs of more than 14 points. To cover the number in this game I am thinking that Kansas will have to score at least 35 points and I just don?t see that happening.
The Verdict: TEXAS TECH (-19)

Side Bar: A second half bet on Tech has been a great proposition the last three years as they have covered the halftime line in an amazing 25 of their last 33 games. With an average of 59 passing attempts per game, the opposing secondary can get worn down trying to cover the receivers as it is a lot easier to run a route when you know where you?re going that it is to cover one when you don?t.


No play on the Kansas State/Oklahoma game.