The Judge's Docket - NCAFF Week 11

The Judge

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After getting thumped by the fall-on-my-face Game of the Month last night I have decided to regroup and concentrate on the conference that I know the best, the Big 12 South. There are some intriguing games in Texas this weekend and I?m gonna handicap all three of them. Wish me luck fellas because after Louisville collapsed last night I need to rebound and get back some of my loot!


BAYLOR vs. TEXAS TECH ? November 6th, 2:10 pm EST
Wow! Gotta give credit to Baylor HC Guy Moriss for a very risky yet gutsy call to go for a two-point conversion in overtime to get the walk-off 35-34 win in last week?s contest over Texas A&M. The Aggies had won the previous 13 games over their old Southwest Conference rival including a 73-10 rout last year. With the win, Baylor ended an 11 game losing streak in the Big 12 and beat a ranked opponent for the first time since 1998. Although dancing was not even allowed on this Baptist school campus until eight years ago, there is little doubt that the champagne was flowing in Waco last Saturday night while Aggie fans were hating life.

The Baylor Bears now sit at 3-5 on the season and they own the worst turnover margin in the nation at negative 21. This team has been the laughing stock of the conference since its inception and really has no business being in the Big 12. In fact, the only reason that Baylor made the cut when the Southwest Conference was dissolved was because then Texas Governor Ann Richards threatened to kill the entire merger of the Texas state universities with the Big 8 unless her alma mater was included.

It is probably not prudent to think that the Bears have another one up their sleeves this week against an incredibly explosive Texas Tech team. As pointed out in last week?s edition of The Docket, Raider QB Sonny Cumbie is still leading the nation with 2,924 yards on the season. The Red Raiders are averaging 36.4 points per game after their victory over Kansas State last week as underdogs.

On the road this year, the Bears have lost every game by an average score of 43-18 while Tech has played very strong at home with their only home loss coming against Texas. Tech has scored over 60 points against the Bears in each of the last three seasons and has covered the last five games and seven of the last eight times they have met. The boys from Lubbock are more than capable of dropping 70 points on this Bears team as they have already reached that mark in two of their three home games this year. Baylor is probably still celebrating over last week?s victory and the Red Raiders need just one more win to be bowl eligible for the 12th straight year. They get it here in a blowout.
The Verdict: Texas Tech (-31)


OKLAHOMA vs. TEXAS A&M ? November 6th, 2:30 pm
The Texas A&M Aggies faithful just sat in the stands last week and watched in disbelief as the Baylor students tore down their own goalposts following the biggest upset in the Big 12 in a very long time. That choke job has earned the A&M team the new nickname ?Gaggies?, at least for a week. The Bears capitalized on turnovers and were able to turn them into 17 points in the 35-34 win and the Bad News Bears were singing Hallelujah choruses in Waco. The last time someone was beaten this badly, the police were called.

On the surface, this week the Aggies? chances for a win don?t look much better as they play host to the No. 2 team in the country, the Oklahoma Sooners. Rest assured that Texas A&M HC Dennis Franchione will have his team motivated in this game as they try to convince the world that last week was just a fluke and that they were caught looking ahead to Oklahoma. Until last week, the Aggies have actually played exceptional football since getting crushed in their opener at Utah. They beat Oklahoma State in Stillwater by a score of 36-20 and just last week that same Okie St. squad very nearly upset the Sooners.

Everyone in the country knows who OU?s RB Adrian Peterson is by now as the freshman continues to turn heads with his rushing ability which seems to just get better with each game. Behind one of the best offensive lines in the country, Peterson has accumulated 1,272 yards rushing on the year. Last year?s Heisman winner, Sooner QB Jason White has now passed for 1,838 yards with 20 touchdowns and four interceptions. However a look at OU?s conference games shows that they have only won one game by a margin of more that 15 points as the Sooner defense is not looking as dominant as those from recent years. In preparation for this year?s Big 12 schedule, OU cleaned up against tough competition such as Bowling Green, Houston and Oregon.

A look back at the history of the contests between these two teams shows that Oklahoma has not covered the spread in games played at College Station in over ten years, although they did beat A&M in a 77-0 rout last year in Norman. Two years ago, the Aggies were the ones playing the spoiler against the Sooners as they won at Kyle Field and ruined Oklahoma?s perfect season. Talented A&M QB Reggie McNeal enjoyed his coming-out party that day, throwing four touchdown passes, including strikes of 61 and 40 yards. McNeal is much better now than he was in his rookie year and poses a definite threat, especially if the Sooners think this game is a gimmee after watching the Aggies get stunned by the Baptists. By the way, in Oklahoma?s storied history, Kyle Field has been their toughest venue where the Sooners are just 1-5 against the Aggies and they have yet to cover a game on the road this year.
The Verdict: TEXAS A&M (+13)


OKLAHOMA STATE vs. TEXAS ? November 6th, 6:00 pm
Whoever is responsible for scheduling Oklahoma State football games needs to have their head thoroughly examined. For the second consecutive year, the Cowboys have to play Oklahoma and Texas in back-to-back games and only someone with sadistic tendencies would be inclined to allow that. Last week OKie St came oh-so-close to upsetting their fiercest rival in a 38-35 loss to Oklahoma at home as a 49 yard field goal attempt went wide with 11 seconds left on the clock. Now they have had a week to suck it up and prepare for the Longhorns in Austin. Ouch!

Texas comes home after two impressive road games against Colorado and Texas Tech against whom they were an underdog. With wins in both, Horns? RB Benson, passed a new milestone each game. Two weeks ago at Tech, the senior became the 5th Division IA back to rush for 1,000 yards in four seasons. Against Colorado, he became the 10th player to surpass 5,000 career yards rushing. Texas is now 22-0 when Benson rushes for over 100 yards.

Texas HC Mack Brown has made it very clear that this team is going to run the football and their opponents are simply going to have to try to stop them. In five of their eight games this season, Texas has rushed for more than 300 yards and they're coming off a 326 yard rushing output last week at Colorado after posting 351 the week before at Texas Tech. Give a lot of credit to the Horns? very talented offensive front, but it is no fun for defenses to have to stare down the double barrel running assault of Benson and QB Vince Young. The Cowboys got a preview of the type of back that Benson is just last week against Adrian Peterson and were only able to hold the Oklahoma freshman to 249 yards.

The OSU Cowboys have their own star in RB Vernand Morency who ranks fifth nationally with a 155.8 yard per game rushing average. The problem is that Texas? defense held Texas Tech and Colorado to -17 and +3 yards rushing in their last two games. It will not be easy for the Cowboys to regain the energy that they demonstrated last week at home against Oklahoma and are sure to be nursing a hangover after their adrenalin crash.

The last time the Cowboys beat the Longhorns was in 1997. Their chances of winning in Austin are not good as Texas has lost only three home games since Mack Brown took over six years ago and it is something that Oklahoma State hasn't accomplished in 60 years.
The Verdict: TEXAS (-12 ?)
 

The Judge

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wox11 said:
LOVE THE T.TECH CALL :clap: :clap: :clap:

MAY EVEMN PLAY THEM IN THE 1ST HALF :toast: :drinky:
Tech has been a solid 2nd half team all year. They are now 6-2 in the 2nd half of their games and have scored 180 of their 291 points this season in the 2nd half.

Their high flying pass offense simply wears down the opposing secondary. It is much more tiring to try to cover those routes all afternoon that to run them. Good luck!
 
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