The model had a semi-good week: numbers for ATS and SU MOV improved, and TOTALS are currently over-the-top, plus – most importantly – I made money TYVM. That said, I’ve heard some questions, which I’ll address below:
Given the fact that last minute line-up changes have significant impact on every game played, remember the following: The projected straight-up (SU) margin of victory (MOV) is calculated on a best guess of the active players at the time of posting. Similarly, the projected ATS winner is determined by the current line as against the posted SU MOV and, of course, as line-up changes are reported, the betting market reacts and Vegas lines are adjusted. The wise better, if so inclined, uses the SU MOV only as a guide, knowing he/she must be aware that last minute line-up changes will likely have an impact on a team’s performance. Being a one-man operation, who has a life, I’m unwilling to adjust and post projections based on last minute changes as they’re reported. That’s the bettor’s job to know and act on.
Also, the “consensus closing line” (which is inevitably different from the line initially posted), on which I base, (against the SU MOV which won’t change) - and for record keeping only - how the model is performing, is a damned difficult number to arrive at. Basically, it’s an averaged number based on the last reported lines (that is, at tip-off) of 9-10 major sportsbooks; and, again, because I have a life, I have an app for that. Trouble is the “app” I made is for shit, so – end of the day – I’m often digging around for some semblance of a “consensus” line, and even that’s easier said than done. If not for an ICE raid, I’d still have a staff to cattle-prod into doing it, but now it’s all down to me – so, a little pity if you please.
Anyway – GLTA
Given the fact that last minute line-up changes have significant impact on every game played, remember the following: The projected straight-up (SU) margin of victory (MOV) is calculated on a best guess of the active players at the time of posting. Similarly, the projected ATS winner is determined by the current line as against the posted SU MOV and, of course, as line-up changes are reported, the betting market reacts and Vegas lines are adjusted. The wise better, if so inclined, uses the SU MOV only as a guide, knowing he/she must be aware that last minute line-up changes will likely have an impact on a team’s performance. Being a one-man operation, who has a life, I’m unwilling to adjust and post projections based on last minute changes as they’re reported. That’s the bettor’s job to know and act on.
Also, the “consensus closing line” (which is inevitably different from the line initially posted), on which I base, (against the SU MOV which won’t change) - and for record keeping only - how the model is performing, is a damned difficult number to arrive at. Basically, it’s an averaged number based on the last reported lines (that is, at tip-off) of 9-10 major sportsbooks; and, again, because I have a life, I have an app for that. Trouble is the “app” I made is for shit, so – end of the day – I’m often digging around for some semblance of a “consensus” line, and even that’s easier said than done. If not for an ICE raid, I’d still have a staff to cattle-prod into doing it, but now it’s all down to me – so, a little pity if you please.
Anyway – GLTA
