Some of you may be familiar with this already. I'm not really a parlay advocate, but I make an exception in this case. The rule says if the spread is 1/3 or more of the posted total, you should post matching parlays....
Favorite + Over
Dog + Under
In this scenario, I have heard (though never proven it, myself) that you have a mathematical edge over the house doing this. The higher a % the spread is of the line, the bigger the advantage.
Of course, one of the parlays you are betting MUST lose...but you are getting $260 for winning one of the parlays, minus the $100 you must lose....net gain of $160 if one parlay hits, loss of $200 if neither hits.
We have a game this week that more than fulfills the requirement: SD -13/35 vs Hou.
The key to this winning essentially is how many points the Texans score. If Houston scores exactly 11 points, you cannot lose, you are guaranteed to make money (unless San Diego scores exactly 24, in which case both bets push). The closer Houston is to 11 points, the greater your chances of one of the parlays hitting. Now 11 is a weird number for sure, but I think 7 and 10 points by Hou are both very reasonable expectations. And 13 and 14 are also close by and maybe not out of the question.
If Hou scores 7....you win $$ if SD scores 19 or less, or 29 or more.
If Hou scores 10...you win if SD scores 22 or less, or 26 or more.
If Hou scores 13...you win if SD scores 21 or less, or 27 or more.
If Hou scores 17...you win if SD scores 17 or less, or 31 or more.
etc etc..
I like Houston's odds to be kept in the 7-10 range quite a bit. Opinions anyone?
{edit} because I can't spell, and to correct small oversight
Favorite + Over
Dog + Under
In this scenario, I have heard (though never proven it, myself) that you have a mathematical edge over the house doing this. The higher a % the spread is of the line, the bigger the advantage.
Of course, one of the parlays you are betting MUST lose...but you are getting $260 for winning one of the parlays, minus the $100 you must lose....net gain of $160 if one parlay hits, loss of $200 if neither hits.
We have a game this week that more than fulfills the requirement: SD -13/35 vs Hou.
The key to this winning essentially is how many points the Texans score. If Houston scores exactly 11 points, you cannot lose, you are guaranteed to make money (unless San Diego scores exactly 24, in which case both bets push). The closer Houston is to 11 points, the greater your chances of one of the parlays hitting. Now 11 is a weird number for sure, but I think 7 and 10 points by Hou are both very reasonable expectations. And 13 and 14 are also close by and maybe not out of the question.
If Hou scores 7....you win $$ if SD scores 19 or less, or 29 or more.
If Hou scores 10...you win if SD scores 22 or less, or 26 or more.
If Hou scores 13...you win if SD scores 21 or less, or 27 or more.
If Hou scores 17...you win if SD scores 17 or less, or 31 or more.
etc etc..
I like Houston's odds to be kept in the 7-10 range quite a bit. Opinions anyone?
{edit} because I can't spell, and to correct small oversight
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