The Mountain West Conference Underdog Play of the Week
Wyoming began its '09 season with a seven- point win over Weber State. Two losses followed to Texas and Colorado saw the Cowboys score zero offensive touchdowns while losing by a combined 55 points.
The players and the new coaching staff didn't panic and the club has since responded with three consecutive SU and ATS wins, scoring 97 points in the process.
It is true those three victories came against teams with a combined 2-14 record but considering the Cowboys ranked last nationally in scoring last year at 12.7 points per game, it's a huge accomplishment no matter who the opponents were.
Wyoming is now 4-2 SU (4-1 ATS) and tied with Brigham Young for first place in the conference at 2-0.
The big difference between this year's and last year's club is in the turnover department. The Cowboys are +9 on the season (+5 in the last three wins); good for a fifth place tie nationally in turnover margin.
Why is the team's turnover statistic important? Two reasons. the first deals with last season's struggles, while the second, which will be discussed shortly, has a lot to do with its recent meetings with Air Force.
In '08, Wyoming's offense committed 27 miscues in eight league games and the defense didn't help matters any with only five forced turnovers. The -22 TO ratio, combined with the lack of wins, cost head coach Joe Glenn his job and set the wheels in motion for a new chapter in Cowboys football.
Under Dave Christensen, the club has turned things around at a rapid pace. The Cowboys are not only scoring points and winning the turnover battle, they are two victories shy of bowl eligibility. With games against TCU, BYU and Utah still on the schedule, it's imperative for them to win two of the remaining three, and that includes this contest with Air Force
The Falcons have struggled putting points on the board this year scoring just 17 vs. the Horned Frogs and only 13 at Navy the week before. In their win over San Diego State three weeks ago, they lost the yardage battle 323-to-294 and failed to score even one offensive touchdown.
Air Force played that game without starting quarterback Tim Jefferson (injured right ankle), but the only reason the Falcons won the game was due to a +6 in the all-important turnover department.
Jefferson suited up vs. Navy the following week and completed only 6-of-14 throws for 57 yards as the Falcons' offense once again failed to reach the end zone.
The sophomore signal-caller was on the sidelines last Saturday against TCU and backup Connor Dietz finally led the team to a pair of offensive touchdowns in the three-point home loss. Still, the Horned Frogs gave the Falcons every chance to step up and win the game. TCU turned the ball over twice inside Air Force's 10-yard line,
The Falcons, who trailed the entire game, closed the deficit to three after cashing in on another Horned Frogs' miscue with just over one minute to go, but the onside kick failed and Air Force lost its first MWC contest of the season.
Jefferson is questionable for this contest but the Falcons might regain the services of slot receiver Kyle Halderman, who has yet to play this season due to a fractured collarbone.
On the negative side, two and quite possibly three of their linebackers will miss the game. Both Ken Lamendola and Patrick Hennessey are done for the season with injuries while Andre Morris is questionable after suffering a concussion in the TCU loss.
PREVIOUS MATCHUPS
Turnovers have killed Wyoming in its recent history vs. Air Force. The Cowboys are -9 in that area the last three years, including two straight games at -4.
The last meeting in Colorado Springs was especially devastating as Air Force came from behind to win 20-12.
Early in the fourth quarter with the Cowboys up 9-7, running back Wynel Seldon lost the ball (one of five Wyoming turnovers) and Air Force safety Bobby Giannini rambled 85 yards for the go-ahead score. It was the first time since 1997 the Falcons were able to gain an ATS home victory over Wyoming.
Air Force, off two tough losses to Navy and TCU, has a huge match up at Utah the following Saturday so it might be a little difficult for the club to get up for this match up with the Cowboys, who are off next week.
Wyoming is getting 10.5-points but might not even need them since this one will be tight throughout. Remember, the Cowboys excel in close games with nine wins in their last 10 in games decided by a touchdown or less. Air Force, on the other hand, is 2-8 in that scenario.
Take Wyoming plus the points.
AFTER SIX WEEKS
I went 9-4 last week for a four-week total of 55-47, good for 54%. There were zero Five-Star plays so the season total still stands at 2-4. The Three-Star selections are 20-19 after a perfect 3-0 week.
Meanwhile, three of the four Two-Star plays proved victorious so that record improves to 20-11 while the One-Star picks went 3-3 for a 13-13 overall mark.
As a reminder, the Five-Star plays are when my Power Plays and Key Plays coincide. The Three-Star selections comprise the rest of my Power Plays: games where there's at least a five-point differential between my line and the actual line. The Two-Star picks are the remaining Key Plays and the One-Star plays are the secondary selections.
THREE-STAR SELECTIONS
The short list of Three-Star plays has Florida Atlantic (at North Texas), Minnesota (at Penn State) and San Jose State (at Fresno State). There are zero Five-Star picks for a second straight week.
TWO-STAR PLAYS
Wyoming highlights three Two-Star plays for week seven and the second choice also comes from the Mountain West as TCU hosts Colorado State.
The Horned Frogs had a ton of trouble with the Rams in last year's contest (albeit without Andy Dalton at quarterback) winning by just six points as a two-touchdown favorite. This year, they are giving Colorado State over three touchdowns despite scoring more than 30 points only once in four FBS games, and even that contest wasn't that impressive.
In that game, TCU led SMU by only 11 points heading into the fourth quarter before scoring a pair of TDs while failing to gain the ATS win.
Colorado State has already defeated Colorado and Nevada this year, and the Rams gave Utah all it could handle last week leading 17-10 after three quarters before losing by a touchdown. Prior to that contest, they led upstart Idaho 20-10 at the half but once again failed to put away their opposition.
The Horned Frogs have a huge game coming up next week at BYU so their focus might be more on the Cougars than with the Rams.
Take Colorado State plus the points.
Michigan State is one banged-up football team. Not only is running back Glenn Winston done for the year with an injured knee, Larry Caper left the Illinois game with a knee injury of his own. The team's leading rusher will suit up vs. Northwestern but he'll be up against a defense that held Javon Ringer and company to just 3.0 yards per carry last year.
Quarterback Scott Nichol, who started last week for Kirk Cousins, practiced on Thursday but he'll more than likely be on the sidelines while Cousins regains the starting role after resting his sore ankle in week six.
Northwestern will be fired up after its lackluster performance in a 16-6 win over Miami-Ohio. More importantly, the Wildcats have given Michigan State fits over the years, especially in East Lansing, where they upset the Spartans as double-digit underdogs the last two meetings and three of the last four.
Take Northwestern plus the points.
ONE-STAR PLAYS
Go with Washington (at Arizona State), New Mexico State (at Louisiana Tech), Ball State (vs. Bowling Green), Troy (at Florida International), Iowa (at Wisconsin) and Missouri (at Oklahoma State).
Wyoming began its '09 season with a seven- point win over Weber State. Two losses followed to Texas and Colorado saw the Cowboys score zero offensive touchdowns while losing by a combined 55 points.
The players and the new coaching staff didn't panic and the club has since responded with three consecutive SU and ATS wins, scoring 97 points in the process.
It is true those three victories came against teams with a combined 2-14 record but considering the Cowboys ranked last nationally in scoring last year at 12.7 points per game, it's a huge accomplishment no matter who the opponents were.
Wyoming is now 4-2 SU (4-1 ATS) and tied with Brigham Young for first place in the conference at 2-0.
The big difference between this year's and last year's club is in the turnover department. The Cowboys are +9 on the season (+5 in the last three wins); good for a fifth place tie nationally in turnover margin.
Why is the team's turnover statistic important? Two reasons. the first deals with last season's struggles, while the second, which will be discussed shortly, has a lot to do with its recent meetings with Air Force.
In '08, Wyoming's offense committed 27 miscues in eight league games and the defense didn't help matters any with only five forced turnovers. The -22 TO ratio, combined with the lack of wins, cost head coach Joe Glenn his job and set the wheels in motion for a new chapter in Cowboys football.
Under Dave Christensen, the club has turned things around at a rapid pace. The Cowboys are not only scoring points and winning the turnover battle, they are two victories shy of bowl eligibility. With games against TCU, BYU and Utah still on the schedule, it's imperative for them to win two of the remaining three, and that includes this contest with Air Force
The Falcons have struggled putting points on the board this year scoring just 17 vs. the Horned Frogs and only 13 at Navy the week before. In their win over San Diego State three weeks ago, they lost the yardage battle 323-to-294 and failed to score even one offensive touchdown.
Air Force played that game without starting quarterback Tim Jefferson (injured right ankle), but the only reason the Falcons won the game was due to a +6 in the all-important turnover department.
Jefferson suited up vs. Navy the following week and completed only 6-of-14 throws for 57 yards as the Falcons' offense once again failed to reach the end zone.
The sophomore signal-caller was on the sidelines last Saturday against TCU and backup Connor Dietz finally led the team to a pair of offensive touchdowns in the three-point home loss. Still, the Horned Frogs gave the Falcons every chance to step up and win the game. TCU turned the ball over twice inside Air Force's 10-yard line,
The Falcons, who trailed the entire game, closed the deficit to three after cashing in on another Horned Frogs' miscue with just over one minute to go, but the onside kick failed and Air Force lost its first MWC contest of the season.
Jefferson is questionable for this contest but the Falcons might regain the services of slot receiver Kyle Halderman, who has yet to play this season due to a fractured collarbone.
On the negative side, two and quite possibly three of their linebackers will miss the game. Both Ken Lamendola and Patrick Hennessey are done for the season with injuries while Andre Morris is questionable after suffering a concussion in the TCU loss.
PREVIOUS MATCHUPS
Turnovers have killed Wyoming in its recent history vs. Air Force. The Cowboys are -9 in that area the last three years, including two straight games at -4.
The last meeting in Colorado Springs was especially devastating as Air Force came from behind to win 20-12.
Early in the fourth quarter with the Cowboys up 9-7, running back Wynel Seldon lost the ball (one of five Wyoming turnovers) and Air Force safety Bobby Giannini rambled 85 yards for the go-ahead score. It was the first time since 1997 the Falcons were able to gain an ATS home victory over Wyoming.
Air Force, off two tough losses to Navy and TCU, has a huge match up at Utah the following Saturday so it might be a little difficult for the club to get up for this match up with the Cowboys, who are off next week.
Wyoming is getting 10.5-points but might not even need them since this one will be tight throughout. Remember, the Cowboys excel in close games with nine wins in their last 10 in games decided by a touchdown or less. Air Force, on the other hand, is 2-8 in that scenario.
Take Wyoming plus the points.
AFTER SIX WEEKS
I went 9-4 last week for a four-week total of 55-47, good for 54%. There were zero Five-Star plays so the season total still stands at 2-4. The Three-Star selections are 20-19 after a perfect 3-0 week.
Meanwhile, three of the four Two-Star plays proved victorious so that record improves to 20-11 while the One-Star picks went 3-3 for a 13-13 overall mark.
As a reminder, the Five-Star plays are when my Power Plays and Key Plays coincide. The Three-Star selections comprise the rest of my Power Plays: games where there's at least a five-point differential between my line and the actual line. The Two-Star picks are the remaining Key Plays and the One-Star plays are the secondary selections.
THREE-STAR SELECTIONS
The short list of Three-Star plays has Florida Atlantic (at North Texas), Minnesota (at Penn State) and San Jose State (at Fresno State). There are zero Five-Star picks for a second straight week.
TWO-STAR PLAYS
Wyoming highlights three Two-Star plays for week seven and the second choice also comes from the Mountain West as TCU hosts Colorado State.
The Horned Frogs had a ton of trouble with the Rams in last year's contest (albeit without Andy Dalton at quarterback) winning by just six points as a two-touchdown favorite. This year, they are giving Colorado State over three touchdowns despite scoring more than 30 points only once in four FBS games, and even that contest wasn't that impressive.
In that game, TCU led SMU by only 11 points heading into the fourth quarter before scoring a pair of TDs while failing to gain the ATS win.
Colorado State has already defeated Colorado and Nevada this year, and the Rams gave Utah all it could handle last week leading 17-10 after three quarters before losing by a touchdown. Prior to that contest, they led upstart Idaho 20-10 at the half but once again failed to put away their opposition.
The Horned Frogs have a huge game coming up next week at BYU so their focus might be more on the Cougars than with the Rams.
Take Colorado State plus the points.
Michigan State is one banged-up football team. Not only is running back Glenn Winston done for the year with an injured knee, Larry Caper left the Illinois game with a knee injury of his own. The team's leading rusher will suit up vs. Northwestern but he'll be up against a defense that held Javon Ringer and company to just 3.0 yards per carry last year.
Quarterback Scott Nichol, who started last week for Kirk Cousins, practiced on Thursday but he'll more than likely be on the sidelines while Cousins regains the starting role after resting his sore ankle in week six.
Northwestern will be fired up after its lackluster performance in a 16-6 win over Miami-Ohio. More importantly, the Wildcats have given Michigan State fits over the years, especially in East Lansing, where they upset the Spartans as double-digit underdogs the last two meetings and three of the last four.
Take Northwestern plus the points.
ONE-STAR PLAYS
Go with Washington (at Arizona State), New Mexico State (at Louisiana Tech), Ball State (vs. Bowling Green), Troy (at Florida International), Iowa (at Wisconsin) and Missouri (at Oklahoma State).
