The PLAXICO FACTOR

[Dizzayton]

I am assuming that Plaxico is 100%, if I am incorrect then please inform me Steelers fans. A healthy Burress may be enough for me to bite on the Steelers -9. The numbers tell me that he is the key to the offense. Check this out.

Pittsburgh with Big Ben and Plaxico healthy
@ Miami win by 10
Cincy win by 11
Clev win by 11
@ Dallas win by 4
NE win by 14
Philly win by 24
@Clev win by 14
Baltimore win by 13

Pittsburgh with Big Ben and Plaxico hurt
@ cincy (plax left game very early) win by 5
Wash- win by 9
@JAx win by 1
NYJ win by 11
NYG win by 3

MARGIN OF VICTORY WITH PLAXICO 12.6
MARGIN OF VICTORY WITHOUT PLAXICO 5.8

(Not counting first 2 games of season with Tommy and Buffalo game)

It seems Plaxico is good for a touchdown per game. He doesn't get the hype of Moss or TO, but he is up there as a big time, big play receiver due to his size and ability. This is another factor in making my decision to bet this game.

 

[Hindsite]

There is a noticeable difference in the offense when plax plays.... With Plax, teams can't roll all the coverage to Ward. With the running game, it is difficult to shut down both Ward and Burress and stop the power running game. If you help out with safties, Bettis will run all over you, if you cheat the safties, you leave one of these stud WRs 1-1... There may be another way to stop it, but I've yet to see it.... In addition, Randle El is emerging into a quality third down guy, and is starting to develop a chemistry with Ben. This offense is potent and can score with the best of them.

 

[Penguinfan]

You either take the Steelers -9 or you pass the game. One team is better than the other at EVERY position, obviously that does not guarantee a win or even a cover, but if you are a handicapper (more fans on this board than handicappers IMO) you cannot justify taking the Jets here. Again that does not mean the Jets don't wander into Pittsburgh and win this game. Alot of anti-Pittsburgh on this board so your better off handicapping this one on your own and live and die with your own choice. I made the same argument when Pittsburgh played the Browns and all I got was stuff like Pittsburgh is due to lose, the rookie QB will choke under the pressure, they can't win em all, you know SOLID handiapping angles.

 

[Dizzayton]

Agreed

Agreed

Pitt will not lose this game. Jets may hang close and cover, but I personally see a 10-14 point victory, which is definitely cutting it close.

 

[CWood97]

Pittsburgh ML could be a play? I really don't see the Jets winning this one. The Steelers are everything you want in a playoff team.

 

[blue]

penguinfan, i agree with you very much on pitt.
i personally like coach edwards and who wouldn't love curtis martin's heart. but i have to bet with my head not my heart.
10-6 Jets - 3rd road game in a row, losers of 3 of their last 4 reg. season games, vs. a well rested steelers who have been able to save some things for this game.

cowher took the steelers to the superbowl and covered the spread. still in past 2 years there was talk of firing cowher. he is crazy if he does not have this steeler team ready to kick butt. the year the patriots went into pitt and broke their heart in the playoffs, that should still be in this organizations crawl. that should have been a superbowl year for the steelers.

this game reminds me of the year miami under jimmy johnson barely made the play-offs, went to seattle and won in week 1 of play-offs, then went to jacksonville and got their clocks cleaned. i will never forget jimmy johnson saying that the short week and the long road trip, well "we never got our legs back in time".

maybe everyone is right and Rothles.... is a rookie fluke., and the steelers are just lucky this year, i guess i will just lose my biggest wager of this season, (which is not all that much, lol) because i'm taking steelers for the game and a little bit on steelers first half. i am thinking that this is the scenario we wait for. strong team vs. mediocre team, the weaker team on road for 3 weeks straight, some injury problems, off long opposite coast road trip, vs. strong team that has 2 weeks preparation time, and had breathing room the last few weeks of the regular season. cowher should be fired if the steelers lose this game. they would need to start all over.

in this day and age of the 16 game season, it would seem that the jets played at least 3 more real games than the steelers because the steelers had things wrapped up so early in the regular season. it would seem that the law of probabilities would catch up to the jets this weekend. if the jets can go into pitt and win in this situation, they very well could win the SB.

i read this board all the time, and i do not claim to be a great handicapper. football is the only sport i love and follow intensely. of course i respect that being a fan and a smart sports bettor are very different. listen to me with caution and u may want to fade me, because maybe i am a good example of joe public, although i do like the pats/colts under 51.5. and jets fans please don't be offended, i am just trying to make $, no dis-respect intended.

if i was thinking that rust sets in from resting a team going into the play-offs, well i just look at the green bay sherman results and the dungy colts results. i believe rest and not showing all your schemes is a great thing going into the play-offs.