The public seems to be on

[Valuist]

Checking a contest on a separate tracking site, the public seems to be on:

NFL:
Minnesota -
New England -
NY Giants -
San Diego -
Buffalo +
New Orleans +

NCAA:
Marshall -
Tennessee -
Bowling Green -
Michigan St -
Virginia Tech -
USC +
Connecticut -
Miami FL -

 

[hellah10]

do you have a figure for the Marshall game by any chance?

 

[Valuist]

Hellah--

Are you referring to a consensus #? It was 12 for Marshall 1 for Central Florida.

 

[hellah10]

thanks

 

[Doughboy]

from bigguy

49 on Marshall, while only 14 on Central Florida

 

[Valuist]

Here's the Pro Football Weekly selections. They seem to mirror the above numbers, for the most part. 11 total selectors:

Games in which at least 8 were on the same side:

Minnesota 10-1
Green Bay 10-1
Philly 9-2
Indianapolis 9-2
San Diego 9-2
New England 8-3
Tennessee 8-3
New Orleans 8-3
St. Louis 8-3

 

[cooz3]

interesting that you point out the giants are a public play...it seems that the giants line has moved in the opposite direction..slightly but still....also miami/bc game has come down to 26 locally... something to keep in mind...COOZ

 

[Valuist]

I think Miami (Canes, not Dolphins) has been a public team for several years. And the NY teams tend to be public teams in general.

 

[cooz3]

i agree in the general sense but vs. certain opponents ny teams are not Public bets (See sf vs giants)...regardless the reason i pointed the line movement out...is often if you see money going on a team and the line stays stagnant ( See titans vs. dallas) something is up or the line moves in the opposite direction of the money ...well you get the picture...not pointing out anything new to you just thought id chime in...GOOD LUcK VALUIST

 

[Valuist]

BTW, 1 pt line moves or bigger toward the dog have been something like 22-12 in college this season. That's good news for BC fans/Cane haters.

 

[Stewy]

Would you really consider this the public's money?

Would you really consider this the public's money?

Considering these people are competing in a contest you would think they all do their homework so this may be considered smart money also. If you have a way of tracking smart vs. public money I would love to here it, or if anyone has a good way of tracking it. My theory is too watch the lines move on Sunday night's and Saturday mornings to get an idea of smart vs. public money. Ofcourse it's only one tool to handicap games but I usually only pay attention to the line movements on Sunday night and monday morning.

 

[Valuist]

I think anytime you see the Wagerline consensus 2/3 on one team yet the line move the other way. This wasn't the Hilton contest; its just one sponsored by the site mentioned earlier. I wonder how many of these people really do their homework.

 

[Antonio]

not too many of them

 

[Valuist]

I see in Nolan's column, his "Goldman theory" is on basically the same teams the guys in this contest are on. There's no doubt in my mind that Buffalo has become the "trendy dog of the week". It seems like squares mostly bet favorites but they like to line up behind one dog. Buffalo can score; only problem is their defense is only a step above UTEP and Northwestern.