The public week 5

[Valuist]

I checked the teams Nolan's Goldman experiment came up with the past couple weeks and what I've been using produced very similar results. I'm using the picks from the Covers contest on wagerline and Pro Football Weekly cappers picks to serve as the public. Once again, they can't get enough of the road favorites. There seems to be 6 games that they view as one sided:

Kansas City 22 NY Jets 1
Philadelphia 26 Jville 2
Oakland 18 Buffalo 5
Carolina 16 Arizona 3
Green Bay 12 Chicago 5
Tampa Bay 12 Atlanta 6

4 of the six are road chalks,(and another is a very small dog) who've been getting battered this season. Kind of the "thank you sir, can I have another" mentality.

 

[acehistr8]

The only two favs of those I really like are KC and Carolina, the rest I would fade all the way.

 

[Valuist]

I would agree. I don't understand the total lack of respect for Jacksonville. Maybe it was cause all the preseason mags didn't expect much but they've looked good. Also Philly is going from turf to grass. How about GB? There something like 14-28 ATS on turf under Favre and 1-7 ATS the last 3 seasons. Interesting how it didn't take long for the public to hop on Carolina's bandwagon; although it could be partly a Arizona fade.

 

[dawgball]

I think it would be more of a bandwagon for Carolina. There are people still out there that think they have great insight by saying, "Carolina ain't too bad this year!"

They are primed to be a fade team. Not yet on it, though.

 

[vanbasten]

good info valuist. scary all those people on kc. i can't find anyone who like the jets either. i think that's one that covers. also like atlanta and arizona. i agree, i think the jags don't get the respect they deserve, but philly a better team last couple seasons on the road than at home. mcnabb particularly better. he loves the grass and warm weather as well. wouldn't bet against them, with bye week ahead, all focus is to get the w here. sucks to go into 2 weeks of practice with that loss hangin over ya.

good luck to you.

 

[Valuist]

KC could be a little scary. That defense isn't good. I don't know if I could stomach the Jets but you notice how KC hasn't gone to -3.5; the Jets are the true contrarian play. Philly might be a little overrated after running up big margins on weak teams.

Just heard Wayne Root on the radio say that New England is getting all the public money in Vegas; in the study I did, it was around even but the sample size was still fairly small.

 

[acehistr8]

Just in my mind KC and NYJ have equally bad defenses. Pointswise they have given up exactly the same, but I give the huge offensive edge to KC, obviously.

The one thing that sticks out at me, NYJ ranked 31st in total defense and 31st in run defense, while KC ranks 3rd in total offense and 2nd in rushing offense.

At first I capped a 48-21 type blowout, but you guys are scaring me back to earth. Still my top pick this week however.

 

[vanbasten]

acehi,

with that kinda prediction, take the over. like it myself, just hoping it comes down.

good luck.

 

[Valuist]

On paper, it logically screams KC. I just have a strange feeling about this game; maybe Pennington has the adrenaline going, maybe KC lets down after big win last week. I'm passing that one.

 

[phoenix566]

ON PAPER

ON PAPER

Denver was supposed to eat Baltimore alive........

I don't have the cahonas to back my jets, however would not play KC with visionary's money......

confucious say: quick way to poor house is to lay chalk on the road......

 

[gardenweasel]

that`s very strange

that`s very strange

as i lurk around several different forums,the jaguars seem to be the flavor of the day.....i have seen practically no one playing philly......and i find that almost funny....the jags have played three absolutely defenseless teams(colts,kc and the jets)....and based on the personnel losses last year,this team is extremely depth-shy(boselli,gary walker,seth payne,kevin hardy,hardy nickerson,keenan mccardell,renaldo wynn,aaron beasley,etc)...i hope this jaguar sentiment is legit...many bettors have very short memories and seem to flow with last weeks results....jags won the first 2 last year,then collapsed at home...i see a similar scenario here...which after last week,probably means you are right on with your jags play ....g.l.

 

[GM]

Good writeup Valuist, I always enjoy your work.

I can't figure why anybody would think Green Bay is a great bet. These guys are one of the best fades week in, week out, and have been for years. I can't remember the last time I bet ON Green Bay, but I've opposed them a LOT. They may be 3-1....but they still haven't covered a game yet!

The Jets are definitely the scary pick of the week. Last 3 weeks NYJ has scored 13 pts....KC has put up ONLY 102 in the same time period. Why only KC -3? I think the Over is the safer play here. NYJ has yet to allow fewer than 28 (last week, Jax), and KC has not allowed fewer than 23 (also vs Jax, Week 2).

I actually liked Jax from the get-go. As for Mia, I am already on them. Seems to be some sentiment that NE can't lose 2 in a row (ala St Lou can't lose 4 in a row?). Well, either NE or Mia is going down 2 in a row now...but NE's vulnerability to the run and Mia's excellent early season home record have me on the 'Phins. Also debating going Under on Oak/Buf. 53 is one very big number, and it's been my experience that when two similar-type all-out offensive teams play each other it often goes the other way.

 

[Valuist]

GM-

Great point on the Oak/Buff total. With a number that high, both teams have to be productive. It could happen but Oakland has played pretty good on defense. They haven't allowed more than 72 rush yards in a game and the high pass total Tenn accumulated was probably the result of Oak building a big early lead and then playing a bit soft on pass D. Only 38 rushes L2 games combined for the Raiders. I think they will go to the ground game more, like they did vs Seattle. Buff has been susceptible to the run but did a great job last week.

Gardenweasel-

I'm curious what forums are all over the Jags; none that I've seen. FWIW, Philly lost outright as a 14 pt favorite last year in the week before the bye. May not mean much. I do think Jville can play well as long as Taylor is healthy. I'd love to contrast their record when he plays against when he's been injured. Philly has looked good but they've really played 4 poor teams.

 

[gardenweasel]

v

v

all good points well stated.......i will have to stick with them on the road until they fold several times...we`ll find out if last year was a fluke....g.l. to you.

 

[dogkatcher]

Jets are MONSTERS after 2 games on the road, 7-0 SU & ATS, L4Y
I'm SCARED.

 

[scrubbo]

Jets vs Kc scares me also...Everything points to Kc... It was kind of like the Tenn vs Dallas game. Stay away

I do like Phil because Jacksonville has to prove that they have a defense and Mcnabb is playing as well as anybody.

I Also like Carolina...They are playing awsome defense and that should translate into some points....If they were a sham they would have folded in GB last week. Rodney Pete is still Rodney Pete but Lamar Smith is carrying the load and Steve smith is Getting downfield. They only reason the Cardinals won last week is because of Kerry Collins.

Tampa vs. atl. Leaning toward Atl but laying off

I slightly like Da Bears....Gb has been less than impressive. Bears the same so take the dog

No opinion on Oak vs. buff.. Bledsoe baffles me.