THE ROCK ANALYSIS
If there were ever a track that required a savvy, smooth, smart race driver, it is the Rock. The reason I say that, is because the track is very abrasive and tires are at a premium. If you are an aggressive driver, you will lose your tires and lose speed. Also, if your car is having handling problems, you will not fare well, as you will lose your tires as well. This is typically a track that requires a more mature driver?Hence, why Jeff Gordon, Rusty Wallace, Dale Jarrett and Mark Martin are very successful here. Track position is very difficult to come by, so qualifying position is very important. If you are starting in the back?it is very difficult to overcome. Also, note that since Saturday?s practice session was cancelled?..the veterans are at an advantage even more so. With that being said?here are the drivers that I feel have a chance to win the race. I will decide later on who I deem has value and I will show my bets and for how many units.
Jeff Gordon (8-1) My book has him listed as the race favorite?and that has to be pretty close to the truth. Although, I don?t see any driver head and foot above another, Gordons history is impressive at the Rock. 8 Top 5?s in 20 appearances, and has won the race 20% of the time (4 times) Gordon knows how to utilize his tires to make them last, and he is a very patient driver. Look for Gordon to be there at the end. Gordon starts 23rd, so it may take him awhile to get to the front, but he has one of the better pit crews around, and will slowly but surely get him to the front.
Tony Stewart (10-1) Stewart is a smart race driver?.a little impatient, but it really hasn?t affected him much here. He has not won this race before, but he is almost always in the Top 10. With the switch to Chevy, Stewart may not be 100% comfortable with his ride, as far as handling goes, so you may want to be careful here. That is the only negative going for Stewart (and it isn?t much of a negative) When teams learn a new manufacturer, they may not be as familiar with aspects such as handling. I believe the Gibbs drivers are OK with their handling?..the ones we need to worry about are the Penske drivers (Wallace and Newman)
Rusty Wallace (13-1) With that being said?Wallace is the active money leader on this race track. He has won here 5 times, also more than any active driver. Rusty has been having handling problems with his new Dodge, and that may be a problem for him on this race track. Rusty, however, is a very patient driver and he starts 8th. He wont feel pressure to move to the front immediately, as he is already there. At 13-1...there is value, and he may break his winless streak today.
Mark Martin (11-1) I really like these odds. Martin is very good at this track. He is a mature driver that knows when to pick his spots. He was won it twice and has 11 Top 5?s, and raced very well here last year, as did all of the Roush drivers. All Roush drivers are good bets here (Except Burton who screwed up in practice and starts from the rear) Martin, I believe is the best bet of them all. He starts just behind the pole sitter, and that is also a plus. He will definatly be on my card today.
Bobby LaBonte (13-1) Should have won a race here last year, but slipped in an oil patch and Matt Kenseth passed him for the win. The current race record holder for his win in 2000. I like him as the better of the two Gibbs drivers. The new Chevy, hopefully will not be a problem. Chevys did not qualify well at all, and the ride is new for him, so there is an adjustment period. But he was the best qualifying Chevy at 10th, and very well may be the best Chevy at the end, as long as Gordon doesn?t beat him.
The rest-- Ricky Craven (22-1) Very good value here.
Dale Jarrett (11-1) Had a streak of 6 Top 5?s in a row here, so he is no stranger.
Matt Kenseth (11-1) Just don?t bet against a Roush driver. They are very good here.
Kurt Busch (11-1) See Kenseth.
Now?.that is a lot of picks. If we bet all of those, there is no way we are gonna win any jack today. So here is how I am playing it. Listed are the odds with units I am playing, and profit if that driver wins.
Jeff Gordon (8-1) 10 units (If win +54 units)
Mark Martin (11-1) 7 units (If win +48 units)
Tony Stewart (10-1) 6 units (If win +30 units)
Rusty Wallace (13-1) 5 units (If win +34 units)
Bobby LaBonte (13-1) 5 units (If win +34 units)
Ricky Craven (22-1) 3 units ( If win +34 units)
Now I played around with the idea of plugging Kurt Busch I there, but it really dragged my winnings down on the other drivers, so I left him out. If you are using this as a model for your bets, I would plug in drivers if you have a feel for a different driver. Adding Busch still yields a good return for the other drivers, but if we don?t hit the winner (like last week) the losses get a little high. So I am goin with these.
Now as far as value/overvalue, I have these
OVERVALUED
Jeff Burton- Very good here, but starting way too far back to be a real contender. His odds, and matchups are up with those real contender, which means he is overvalued.
Jimmy Johnson- He is young, didn?t race well here last year, and starts near the back. Not a good combo, but his odds are reflectant on his nice Daytona finish last week.
Dale Earnhardt Jr. - Very impatient, and has never raced well here, probably for that reason. He starts 12th, so that will help. But don?t look for Jr to be racing with the leaders today. He missed his chance last week.
UNDERVALUED
Greg Biffle- Rookies probably wont fare well here?especially a crazy driver like Biffle. But I have a feeling that he has been coached well by his teammates (Martin, Burton, Kenseth, Busch) If that is the case?he should fare well enough to beat the scrubs he is in matchups with.
Steve Park- Yea?he is still in the clouds, but he raced well here before his accident. I think he is a little better after the off season. And he better get his act together before he loses his job. Now is the best time.
With that being said. Here are the matchups I am playing.
J Gordon (-155) over J Johnson
Busch (-160) over J Burton
R Wallace (-120) over Junior
Blaney (+125) over Sadler
Elliott (+110) over Newman
Park (+110) over Skinner
Martin (-180) over J Burton
Martin (+110) over Marlin
B Labonte (-140) over Newman
Kenseth (-170) over Earnhardt/Newman
Blaney (+175) over Waltrip/Nemacheck
GOOD LUCK!!!
If there were ever a track that required a savvy, smooth, smart race driver, it is the Rock. The reason I say that, is because the track is very abrasive and tires are at a premium. If you are an aggressive driver, you will lose your tires and lose speed. Also, if your car is having handling problems, you will not fare well, as you will lose your tires as well. This is typically a track that requires a more mature driver?Hence, why Jeff Gordon, Rusty Wallace, Dale Jarrett and Mark Martin are very successful here. Track position is very difficult to come by, so qualifying position is very important. If you are starting in the back?it is very difficult to overcome. Also, note that since Saturday?s practice session was cancelled?..the veterans are at an advantage even more so. With that being said?here are the drivers that I feel have a chance to win the race. I will decide later on who I deem has value and I will show my bets and for how many units.
Jeff Gordon (8-1) My book has him listed as the race favorite?and that has to be pretty close to the truth. Although, I don?t see any driver head and foot above another, Gordons history is impressive at the Rock. 8 Top 5?s in 20 appearances, and has won the race 20% of the time (4 times) Gordon knows how to utilize his tires to make them last, and he is a very patient driver. Look for Gordon to be there at the end. Gordon starts 23rd, so it may take him awhile to get to the front, but he has one of the better pit crews around, and will slowly but surely get him to the front.
Tony Stewart (10-1) Stewart is a smart race driver?.a little impatient, but it really hasn?t affected him much here. He has not won this race before, but he is almost always in the Top 10. With the switch to Chevy, Stewart may not be 100% comfortable with his ride, as far as handling goes, so you may want to be careful here. That is the only negative going for Stewart (and it isn?t much of a negative) When teams learn a new manufacturer, they may not be as familiar with aspects such as handling. I believe the Gibbs drivers are OK with their handling?..the ones we need to worry about are the Penske drivers (Wallace and Newman)
Rusty Wallace (13-1) With that being said?Wallace is the active money leader on this race track. He has won here 5 times, also more than any active driver. Rusty has been having handling problems with his new Dodge, and that may be a problem for him on this race track. Rusty, however, is a very patient driver and he starts 8th. He wont feel pressure to move to the front immediately, as he is already there. At 13-1...there is value, and he may break his winless streak today.
Mark Martin (11-1) I really like these odds. Martin is very good at this track. He is a mature driver that knows when to pick his spots. He was won it twice and has 11 Top 5?s, and raced very well here last year, as did all of the Roush drivers. All Roush drivers are good bets here (Except Burton who screwed up in practice and starts from the rear) Martin, I believe is the best bet of them all. He starts just behind the pole sitter, and that is also a plus. He will definatly be on my card today.
Bobby LaBonte (13-1) Should have won a race here last year, but slipped in an oil patch and Matt Kenseth passed him for the win. The current race record holder for his win in 2000. I like him as the better of the two Gibbs drivers. The new Chevy, hopefully will not be a problem. Chevys did not qualify well at all, and the ride is new for him, so there is an adjustment period. But he was the best qualifying Chevy at 10th, and very well may be the best Chevy at the end, as long as Gordon doesn?t beat him.
The rest-- Ricky Craven (22-1) Very good value here.
Dale Jarrett (11-1) Had a streak of 6 Top 5?s in a row here, so he is no stranger.
Matt Kenseth (11-1) Just don?t bet against a Roush driver. They are very good here.
Kurt Busch (11-1) See Kenseth.
Now?.that is a lot of picks. If we bet all of those, there is no way we are gonna win any jack today. So here is how I am playing it. Listed are the odds with units I am playing, and profit if that driver wins.
Jeff Gordon (8-1) 10 units (If win +54 units)
Mark Martin (11-1) 7 units (If win +48 units)
Tony Stewart (10-1) 6 units (If win +30 units)
Rusty Wallace (13-1) 5 units (If win +34 units)
Bobby LaBonte (13-1) 5 units (If win +34 units)
Ricky Craven (22-1) 3 units ( If win +34 units)
Now I played around with the idea of plugging Kurt Busch I there, but it really dragged my winnings down on the other drivers, so I left him out. If you are using this as a model for your bets, I would plug in drivers if you have a feel for a different driver. Adding Busch still yields a good return for the other drivers, but if we don?t hit the winner (like last week) the losses get a little high. So I am goin with these.
Now as far as value/overvalue, I have these
OVERVALUED
Jeff Burton- Very good here, but starting way too far back to be a real contender. His odds, and matchups are up with those real contender, which means he is overvalued.
Jimmy Johnson- He is young, didn?t race well here last year, and starts near the back. Not a good combo, but his odds are reflectant on his nice Daytona finish last week.
Dale Earnhardt Jr. - Very impatient, and has never raced well here, probably for that reason. He starts 12th, so that will help. But don?t look for Jr to be racing with the leaders today. He missed his chance last week.
UNDERVALUED
Greg Biffle- Rookies probably wont fare well here?especially a crazy driver like Biffle. But I have a feeling that he has been coached well by his teammates (Martin, Burton, Kenseth, Busch) If that is the case?he should fare well enough to beat the scrubs he is in matchups with.
Steve Park- Yea?he is still in the clouds, but he raced well here before his accident. I think he is a little better after the off season. And he better get his act together before he loses his job. Now is the best time.
With that being said. Here are the matchups I am playing.
J Gordon (-155) over J Johnson
Busch (-160) over J Burton
R Wallace (-120) over Junior
Blaney (+125) over Sadler
Elliott (+110) over Newman
Park (+110) over Skinner
Martin (-180) over J Burton
Martin (+110) over Marlin
B Labonte (-140) over Newman
Kenseth (-170) over Earnhardt/Newman
Blaney (+175) over Waltrip/Nemacheck
GOOD LUCK!!!
