The Rock

[The Big Tease]

well, i cant get into my book right now, so i cant speak on value of odds right now. i am going to keep this short and sweet for now, and try to explain in the morning.

i have a great feeling on johnny benson. this guy is so overdue on his favorite track with a great starting position. i honestly feel that he should be the favorite in this race. i dont know what his odds are, but anything over 10-1 is worth a shot in my opinion.

ricky craven also runs well, and from the pole should also have some value, if you can find him at around 25-1

i wouldnt waste my money on the following....jeff gordon (overvalue on a track he isnt that good at), dale jr and harvick, they both stink here.

i do however love both gibbs cars here, and i will be basing a lot of money on them this weekeend. i gotta run for now, i will be back with more info in the morning when i can get some damn odds

 

[Tucker88]

Tease. believe that bubba is on to something here not to base
positions on qualifying or past race preform at a particular track.

this one engine rule is more than its protrayed.
Gordon qualifyed #33 no big deal, he just was willing to push
it with only one engine. ran 5-6 laps in happy hour and was
in the top ten in speed. Gordon will be there in the end.

Most of Gordon's success at Rockingham has come in the February event, in which he has tallied three wins, two poles and four top-five finishes. In fact, Gordon has qualified ninth or better, including two Bud Poles, in 16 of 18 NASCAR Winston Cup races at Rockingham.

personnally i would put much stock in benson and craven.
but good luck with your plays.

 

[The Big Tease]

well tucker, im glad you are so very fond of my plays. You aint gots to play em! LOL! Just kiddin, man. I just try to get some good input out, and I look strictly for value. I am not saying that Jeff Gordon does not have a chance to win this race, b/c he always does. But I am not going to bet him when he is the 2nd or 3rd favorite on the board, when I believe that he has about the 6th best chance to win it. at 6-1 I think he has no value. I would take either of the Gibbs cars, and think that they have a better chance of winning than Gordon, and you get better odds.

a car that i did not mention that i feel has a very good shot at winning this race is kenny wallace. not only does he have a car (the #1) that dominated at the Rock in both races last year with Steve Park behind the wheel, but Kenny Wallace led the 2nd Rock race for over 100 laps last year in his crappy ride. So you have a car and a driver that both really like the Rock, and at 13-1, I think that is great value.

This race, the most important thing is preserving your tires, and that all goes by the way a driver drives. This cant be changed for one race. If a driver tends to rub his tires more than someone else, well, he doesnt drive any different for this race, he just tends to stink it up. Example, Dale Jr and Harvick. A couple of other drivers that have fared well here in the past are Dale Jarrett and Sterling Marlin. I think that Dale Jarrett is overvalued, as he is the favorite at most books. Sterling Marlin's odds are about right at 10-1, and if you feel strongly that he has a shot, then he is a good bet.

Here is my Top 8

Bobby LaBonte
Tony Stewart
Johnny Benson
Dale Jarrett
Kenny Wallace
Jeff Gordon
Ricky Craven
Sterling Marlin

more to come....

 

[The Big Tease]

ooops, sorry guys, kenny wallace was in steve parks ride last year in he 2nd rock race not a "crappy ride" like i mentioned before. nonetheless, he knows how to drive that race track, and the number 1 car seems to have a knack for it as well.

and i have not mentioned the one-engine rule---i am not putting much stock into this rule. all it means is that teams that qualify well, may not run all out in happy hour. this rule should scare no one. if you are a driver that is thinking about blowing your engine in qualifying or practice, then you have problems. why lay low in qualifying, and get a spot near the back, when the penalty for blowing your engine, is starting in the back? might as well, just go all out and qualify as normal, huh? I just think that this is their way of trying to achieve more parity in nascar, but it is the wrong way to go bout it.

OH yea, and if you guys want a ringer??? Take a flyer on Dave Blaney. This guy probably wont win the race, but his odds should sure be better than 60-1!?!? This guy has 2 top 15 finishes last year, and is driving a car this year that had 2 top 15 finishes. he likes the track with a better ride this year. He should be in the Top 10, and crazier things have happened as far as winning the race. I'll take a shot on him,and if I find him in matchups, I will load up

more to come...

 

[4bubba]

The Big Tease
Good to read you articles.
It seems you use track history of drivers. How much do you factor in how a driver is doing overall lately?
I am trying to come up with a strategy as I am relatively new at NASCAR. Any ideas on a base strategy?

 

[The Big Tease]

bubba--very little do i figure current racing status. each track is a different thing to each driver, in my opinion. i think everything is fine on the earnheardt and harvick team, but i wouldnt touch either one of them with a stick this week. i just read that tony stewart is having engine problems, so i may steer clear of him this week.

 

[djv]

TBT as I was saying to Tucker and 4bubba. Qualifing did not teach us much. A few of the teams did not push real hard. That and he the wether played tricks with gualifing. Some smart teams will even play gas mileage game. In the end when race starts for good the last 30/40 laps. I do belivev the cream will come to the front. Some rooks are going to get good lessons this week. I to like B LoBonte to be strong. J Benson has some nice odds toplay. S Marlin is another one in match ups and to win race that looks good. J Gordon has away of being there at the end. If he can miss the wreack working his way from the back to front. He will be a factor for sure. I knoe lots of folks don't like him much period. I look at his skills and listen to what other drivers say. He is a dam good driver.

 

[4bubba]

The 1 engine rule should really be amazing for the 600 mile races, like at ATL. The world may change there.

I hope to get off work and go to the Vegas WCS this weekend.

For future events, I know its a year away, but next years Vegas race may be a good time for us to get together, like MJs SuperBowl party.

 

[4bubba]

p.s.
The Big Tease,
Great picks this week!