I meant to post this as a seperate thread, but it also appears in the TOTAL thread.The Scoring Spectrum
One thing I have used for many years when forecasting totals is to basically list ALL of the possible scenarios for scoring. In a post here today, there was some give and take on WHAT WILL HAPPEN TONIGHT? ONe poster who I respect speculated that he thought Miami would win 31-10 (which means an OVER).
He could be right.
However, let's list out the possible numbers here, given what might be expected in the game (conventionally speaking):
MIAMI BLOWOUT SCENARIOS:
16-0, 17-0, 20-0, 21-0, 24-0, 27-0, 28-0, 30-0, 31-0, 34-0, 35-0, 37-0, 38-0, 41-0, 42-0 , 16-3, 17-3, 20-3, 21-3, 24-3, 27-3, 28-3, 30-3, 31-3, 34-3, 35-3, 37-3, 38-3, 41-3, 42-3, 16-7, etc.
(CONCLUSION: the majority of these blowout scenarios favro the UNDER)
MIAMI WINS BY 9 to 11 SCENARIO (around the pointspread)
16-6, 16-7 17-7, 20-10, 21-10, 21-9, 23-13, 23-14, 24-13, 24-14, 27-17, 27-16, 30-20, 30-21 (higher scoring game than 50 very unlikely)
(CONCLUSION: these scenarios split about half and half for the OVER and UNDER)
CLOSE TIGHT GAME SCENARIO
14-13, 14-10, 16-13, 16-10, 17-10, 17-13, 17-14, 20-13, 20-14, 20-16, 20-17, 21-13, 21-14, 21-16, 21-17, 24-16, 24-17, 24-20, 24-21
CONCLUSION: most of these scenaios go UNDER the total, assuming there is not a high schoring shootout 45+ points scored)
Given these scenarios, it appears that the mean expectation would be about 34 points. Based on the spread, that means Miami winning about 22-12 (unlikely numerical score). I'd revise that to Miami 21-13.
The point of all this numerology is this: IT IS MUCH MORE LIKLEY THESE TWO TEAMS WILL GO UNDER THE EXPECTED TOTAL BY X plsu points, than OVER THE TOTAL by X plus point. For instance, it is conceivalbe this game could go UNDER by 10 points (lots of scores fit the 27 total) but less likely we see 47 points being scored.
Add one other point and a question: What do the Bears do when they have first and goal at the Miami 8-yard line? With virtually no running game, who will they punch the ball into the end zone? That point alone leans to to suspect a very low total coming from the Bears tonight, barring a disasterous performance by the Dolphins.
Now that I have dug myself into a grave here, I'll probably be eating crow tomorrow. Of course, one could mention the PITT-HOU game yesterday which nullified all the scnearios and shows how unpredicatable this business really is.
-- Nolan Dalla
__________________
Nolan Dalla
One thing I have used for many years when forecasting totals is to basically list ALL of the possible scenarios for scoring. In a post here today, there was some give and take on WHAT WILL HAPPEN TONIGHT? ONe poster who I respect speculated that he thought Miami would win 31-10 (which means an OVER).
He could be right.
However, let's list out the possible numbers here, given what might be expected in the game (conventionally speaking):
MIAMI BLOWOUT SCENARIOS:
16-0, 17-0, 20-0, 21-0, 24-0, 27-0, 28-0, 30-0, 31-0, 34-0, 35-0, 37-0, 38-0, 41-0, 42-0 , 16-3, 17-3, 20-3, 21-3, 24-3, 27-3, 28-3, 30-3, 31-3, 34-3, 35-3, 37-3, 38-3, 41-3, 42-3, 16-7, etc.
(CONCLUSION: the majority of these blowout scenarios favro the UNDER)
MIAMI WINS BY 9 to 11 SCENARIO (around the pointspread)
16-6, 16-7 17-7, 20-10, 21-10, 21-9, 23-13, 23-14, 24-13, 24-14, 27-17, 27-16, 30-20, 30-21 (higher scoring game than 50 very unlikely)
(CONCLUSION: these scenarios split about half and half for the OVER and UNDER)
CLOSE TIGHT GAME SCENARIO
14-13, 14-10, 16-13, 16-10, 17-10, 17-13, 17-14, 20-13, 20-14, 20-16, 20-17, 21-13, 21-14, 21-16, 21-17, 24-16, 24-17, 24-20, 24-21
CONCLUSION: most of these scenaios go UNDER the total, assuming there is not a high schoring shootout 45+ points scored)
Given these scenarios, it appears that the mean expectation would be about 34 points. Based on the spread, that means Miami winning about 22-12 (unlikely numerical score). I'd revise that to Miami 21-13.
The point of all this numerology is this: IT IS MUCH MORE LIKLEY THESE TWO TEAMS WILL GO UNDER THE EXPECTED TOTAL BY X plsu points, than OVER THE TOTAL by X plus point. For instance, it is conceivalbe this game could go UNDER by 10 points (lots of scores fit the 27 total) but less likely we see 47 points being scored.
Add one other point and a question: What do the Bears do when they have first and goal at the Miami 8-yard line? With virtually no running game, who will they punch the ball into the end zone? That point alone leans to to suspect a very low total coming from the Bears tonight, barring a disasterous performance by the Dolphins.
Now that I have dug myself into a grave here, I'll probably be eating crow tomorrow. Of course, one could mention the PITT-HOU game yesterday which nullified all the scnearios and shows how unpredicatable this business really is.
-- Nolan Dalla
__________________
Nolan Dalla
