FREDS EFFICIENCY REPORT — 49ERS @ EAGLES
Market Consensus (DraftKings & Other Books)
- Spread: Eagles ~-5.5
- Moneyline: Eagles favored (~-238-250), 49ers ~+195
- Over/Under: ~44.5–45.5
- Line Movement: Opened ~Eagles -3 → ~Eagles -5.5, total drifted lower (46.5 → 44.5/45.5)
I might be retarded..... Ok Ok I AM retarded, but still. It looks to me like public and sharp money were on the Eagles early, leading to a few key moves toward Philly and a compressed total — strong early signal on favorite defense.
🔢 1) EPA per Play / EPA per Dropback (Last 4–6 Weeks)
49ers
San Francisco’s offense is top 10 in total yards and passing yards per game (351.4, 244.5) and scoring (~25.7 ppg).
Offense ranks high in efficiency but struggled in Week 18 (three points) and in certain road playoff scenarios. Does it matter? Who the hell knows? Lol.
Eagles
Slightly slower offensive production (22.3 ppg, 311.2 total yards).
Eagles defense yields lower EPA/play than the Niners offense, but overall Philly’s defense is elite at limiting success and scoring.
Sharp take: Niners offense EPA is strong; Eagles defense EPA allowed is also strong. Philly’s defensive efficiency may suppress SF’s production more than raw EPA suggests. But who the hell knows? Ha.
📈 2) Success Rate Differential
49ers
Niners have incredible success on third downs (best in league percentage). That's always huge.
Defensive success is mediocre historically vs elite teams after losses of key defenders.
Eagles
Eagles defense finished top 5 in success rate allowed.
The Philly offense has pretty descent red zone efficiency (70.5%).
Sharp take: Philly’s success rate differential (especially defense) MIGHT outperform published box score stats, particularly in playoff environments where the birds lock in.
3) Adjusted Line Yards vs Pressure Rate
The splits I see
49ers
Offensive line MAY be compromised by Trent Williams’ questionable status. Niners pass rush generation metrics suck league wide
Eagles
Birds rush defense and front support historically strong; recent personnel returns boost this.
Lane Johnson’s return to practice is a big plus for run/pass blocking.
Sharp take: Eagles front likely wins the line yards / pressure matchup, and Philly’s pressure environment may tilt efficiency downward for Purdy/49ers.
🧠 4) Cluster Injury Multipliers
49ers
LT Trent Williams questionable with hamstring — huge protector and run-lane creator. Not great for Niners.
Other questionables include Ricky Pearsall (WR), Dee Winters & others — indicates cluster risk.
Eagles
Lane Johnson is returning to practice — huge hedge to O-line cluster issues.
Defensive stars and contributors are definitely healthier relative to 49ers injuries.
Sharp take: Eagles have a notable cluster injury advantage here; 49ers injuries especially at LT and on defense are meaningful and worth ~+1.5–2 points in my sharp model.
⏱ 5) Net Rest / Travel Handicap
Neutral:
Both teams had adequate rest.
No short-week/long travel issues besides the standard cross-country trip for SF — but that’s baked into the spread mostly.
Sharp take: 0 adjustment.
🔄 6) Turnover Regression / Fumble Luck
49ers
Niners ~20 turnovers; middle of league.
Defensive takeaways somewhat varied; not a big edge.
Eagles
Eagles ~15 turnovers; not elite but solid.
Neither team is extreme here; regression risk is slight and neutral.
👨⚖️ 7) Referee Tendencies
Historical data suggests home teams have fared well in games refereed by Eck (e.g., Eagles 8–1 in his games overall, 3–0 as head ref).
The 49ers had a significant advantage over the Eagles in the # of penalties they drew during the 2025 NFL season. 83 flags. 2nd best in the NFL
The Eagles had the 10th-most flags against them this year, with 117.
It will be interesting to see if this plays a role in their Wild Card round matchup, where everything becomes much more crucial.
🔑 8) Key Number / Closing Line Value (CLV) & Reverse Line Movement
Market Data
Line opened ~Eagles -3 → moved toward Eagles -5/-5.5 with late bets and big money support.
Total has drifted down (46.5 → ~44.5), classic sign of money fading combined scoring expectations.
Reverse Line Movement
Line moving toward the public side (Eagles) suggests sharp alignment with home favorite.
No drift toward 49ers despite market exposure — books not seeing heavy contrarian pressure.
Sharp signal: Eagles money is strong in this spot (classic reverse movement with handle pushing spread heavier), a reliable pro indicator.
🔍 TRUE LINE vs MARKET CONSENSUS
| Metric | Eagles Advantage | 49ers Advantage |
|---|---|---|
| EPA/play (Offense vs Defense) | Small (Eagles def) | Small (49ers offense) |
| Success Rate Differential | Yes (Eagles def) | Yes (49ers offense) |
| Pressure/Line Yards | Yes (Eagles OL/Front) | No |
| Cluster Injuries | Yes (Eagles healthier) | No |
| Rest / Travel | Neutral | Neutral |
| Turnover Regression | Neutral | Neutral |
| Referee | Neutral | Neutral |
| CLV / RLM | Strong (Eagles) | None |
True Line Estimate: Eagles −5 to −6
Market Line: Eagles ~−5 to −5.5
🔎 Conclusion: The market spread for this game is very close to a sharp “true line”. Eagles get the edge from defense, injuries, and stadium/home, and that’s showing up in reverse line movement where big handle money pushes toward Philly. There’s no glaring inefficiency to take against the market number — if anything, the sharp model confirms it.
SHARP TAKEAWAYS
Sharp Alignment (Agree with Market)
✅ Eagles −5.5 (or −6) aligns with a true valuation, especially given Philly’s defensive strength and Niners injuries. Predictem.com Sports Picks
✅ Reverse Line Movement toward Eagles indicates pro money support. Predictem.com Sports Picks
✅ Total leaning lower (Under ~44.5) reflects defensive success and playoff tempo tightening. Sportsbook Review
Potential Sharp Plays
✔ Eagles −5 / −5.5
✔ Under 44.5–45 (connected to defensive strength)
✔ Alternate spreads focusing on Eagles defensive props
Risk / Variance Considerations
⚠ 49ers offensive talent (McCaffrey, Purdy) can score in chunks — if Philly’s front collapses or weather/wind significantly hampers run/pass balance, deviating scripts can inflate totals.
Then again I lose 40-45% of the time so who knows right? GL GL GL JACKERS!
