The short, strange era of human civilization would appear to be drawing to a close.

ChrryBlstr

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It is not pleasant to contemplate the thoughts that must be passing through the mind of the Owl of Minerva as the dusk falls and she undertakes the task of interpreting the era of human civilization, which may now be approaching its inglorious end.

The era opened almost 10,000 years ago in the Fertile Crescent, stretching from the lands of the Tigris and Euphrates, through Phoenicia on the eastern coast of the Mediterranean to the Nile Valley, and from there to Greece and beyond. What is happening in this region provides painful lessons on the depths to which the species can descend.

The land of the Tigris and Euphrates has been the scene of unspeakable horrors in recent years. The George W. Bush-Tony Blair aggression in 2003, which many Iraqis compared to the Mongol invasions of the 13th century, was yet another lethal blow. It destroyed much of what survived the Bill Clinton-driven U.N. sanctions on Iraq, condemned as ?genocidal? by the distinguished diplomats Denis Halliday and Hans von Sponeck, who administered them before resigning in protest. Halliday and von Sponeck's devastating reports received the usual treatment accorded to unwanted facts.

One dreadful consequence of the U.S.-U.K. invasion is depicted in a New York Times ?visual guide to the crisis in Iraq and Syria?: the radical change of Baghdad from mixed neighborhoods in 2003 to today's sectarian enclaves trapped in bitter hatred. The conflicts ignited by the invasion have spread beyond and are now tearing the entire region to shreds.

Much of the Tigris-Euphrates area is in the hands of ISIS and its self-proclaimed Islamic State, a grim caricature of the extremist form of radical Islam that has its home in Saudi Arabia. Patrick Cockburn, a Middle East correspondent for The Independent and one of the best-informed analysts of ISIS, describes it as ?a very horrible, in many ways fascist organization, very sectarian, kills anybody who doesn't believe in their particular rigorous brand of Islam.?

Cockburn also points out the contradiction in the Western reaction to the emergence of ISIS: efforts to stem its advance in Iraq along with others to undermine the group's major opponent in Syria, the brutal Bashar Assad regime. Meanwhile a major barrier to the spread of the ISIS plague to Lebanon is Hezbollah, a hated enemy of the U.S. and its Israeli ally. And to complicate the situation further, the U.S. and Iran now share a justified concern about the rise of the Islamic State, as do others in this highly conflicted region.

Egypt has plunged into some of its darkest days under a military dictatorship that continues to receive U.S. support. Egypt's fate was not written in the stars. For centuries, alternative paths have been quite feasible, and not infrequently, a heavy imperial hand has barred the way.

After the renewed horrors of the past few weeks it should be unnecessary to comment on what emanates from Jerusalem, in remote history considered a moral center.

Eighty years ago, Martin Heidegger extolled Nazi Germany as providing the best hope for rescuing the glorious civilization of the Greeks from the barbarians of the East and West. Today, German bankers are crushing Greece under an economic regime designed to maintain their wealth and power.

The likely end of the era of civilization is foreshadowed in a new draft report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the generally conservative monitor of what is happening to the physical world.

The report concludes that increasing greenhouse gas emissions risk ?severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts for people and ecosystems? over the coming decades. The world is nearing the temperature when loss of the vast ice sheet over Greenland will be unstoppable. Along with melting Antarctic ice, that could raise sea levels to inundate major cities as well as coastal plains.

The era of civilization coincides closely with the geological epoch of the Holocene, beginning over 11,000 years ago. The previous Pleistocene epoch lasted 2.5 million years. Scientists now suggest that a new epoch began about 250 years ago, the Anthropocene, the period when human activity has had a dramatic impact on the physical world. The rate of change of geological epochs is hard to ignore.

One index of human impact is the extinction of species, now estimated to be at about the same rate as it was 65 million years ago when an asteroid hit the Earth. That is the presumed cause for the ending of the age of the dinosaurs, which opened the way for small mammals to proliferate, and ultimately modern humans. Today, it is humans who are the asteroid, condemning much of life to extinction.

The IPCC report reaffirms that the ?vast majority? of known fuel reserves must be left in the ground to avert intolerable risks to future generations. Meanwhile the major energy corporations make no secret of their goal of exploiting these reserves and discovering new ones.

A day before its summary of the IPCC conclusions, The New York Times reported that huge Midwestern grain stocks are rotting so that the products of the North Dakota oil boom can be shipped by rail to Asia and Europe.

One of the most feared consequences of anthropogenic global warming is the thawing of permafrost regions. A study in Science magazine warns that ?even slightly warmer temperatures [less than anticipated in coming years] could start melting permafrost, which in turn threatens to trigger the release of huge amounts of greenhouse gases trapped in ice,? with possible ?fatal consequences? for the global climate.

Arundhati Roy suggests that the ?most appropriate metaphor for the insanity of our times? is the Siachen Glacier, where Indian and Pakistani soldiers have killed each other on the highest battlefield in the world. The glacier is now melting and revealing ?thousands of empty artillery shells, empty fuel drums, ice axes, old boots, tents and every other kind of waste that thousands of warring human beings generate? in meaningless conflict. And as the glaciers melt, India and Pakistan face indescribable disaster.

Sad species. Poor Owl.

http://inthesetimes.com/article/17137/the_end_of_history
 

Duff Miver

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Homo Sapiens is a dead end species for all the reasons you state - making a general mess of the planet, overpopulation, excess consumption of resources, continuous war on each other.

Whether the end will come suddenly through global nuclear war (we already have a stockpile of weapons sufficient to wipe out all higher life forms on the planet), or via an unstoppable mutant virus, or more slowly as rising temperatures wipe out the food supply, it's too early to say.

However all is not lost. Cockroaches and a few other durable species will survive, the planet will cool back down, and a million years from now all will be in balance again. It'll be a lovely place to visit. Maybe an intelligent species from Andromeda will colonize it.
 

ChrryBlstr

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Feb 11, 2002
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Homo Sapiens is a dead end species for all the reasons you state - making a general mess of the planet, overpopulation, excess consumption of resources, continuous war on each other.

Whether the end will come suddenly through global nuclear war (we already have a stockpile of weapons sufficient to wipe out all higher life forms on the planet), or via an unstoppable mutant virus, or more slowly as rising temperatures wipe out the food supply, it's too early to say.

However all is not lost. Cockroaches and a few other durable species will survive, the planet will cool back down, and a million years from now all will be in balance again. It'll be a lovely place to visit. Maybe an intelligent species from Andromeda will colonize it.

Duffy: Perhaps sooner rather than later. And for even more good news....

The U.S. is hardly alone when it comes to drought.

A worldwide weather phenomenon threatens the future of water and food supplies, as well as the global economy, experts say. Colombia, Pakistan, Somalia, Australia, Guatemala, China and Kenya are just a few of the other countries suffering severe drought conditions.

"The effects of droughts happen over time and aren't just a single event," said Lynn Wilson, academic chair at the online school, Kaplan University, and an environmental researcher. "When it comes to food and having safe drinking water, water is not an unlimited resource, and we have to manage it better across the globe."

Will Sarni, who is director and practice leader in water strategy and sustainability at Deloitte Consulting, said the full economic effect from the current global drought is just taking shape.

"We don't hear much about how water scarcity impacts where businesses locate," he said. "Water-rich states will be able to lure manufacturing and agriculture away from water-scarce nations. That can lead to limits in economic growth."

Droughts have plagued the earth for centuries. In fact, there's some debate over whether the recent spate of drought is different from the past.

"It's not the new normal," said Frank Galgano, professor of geography at Philadelphia's Villanova University. "It's impossible to disassociate the recent droughts with so-called cyclical events."

"When it comes to food and having safe drinking water, water is not an unlimited resource, and we have to manage it better across the globe."

But what's clear to some analysts is that more severe weather episodes like drought are on the way.

"We'll see more droughts and floods in the decades to come," said LaDawn Haglund, a professor of justice and social inquiry at Arizona State University and an urban water expert. "Warming temperatures are changing when and where how much water falls from the sky."

Cost projections from the drought are hard to pin down, but the World Economic Forum (WEF) says that drought across the globe costs $6 billion to $8 billion a year from losses in agriculture and related businesses.

In California alone, the well-documented drought will cost the state $2.2 billion and put some 17,000 agricultural workers out of a job this year, according to a study from the University of California, Davis. California is easily the biggest agriculture-producing state in the United States.

The global nature of trade means that drought creates costs globally, even as trade helps to balance out shortages from one place to another. "The global drought means higher food shortage and higher prices across the board," said Will Delavan, professor of economics at Lebanon Valley College in Pennsylvania.

It's the use of groundwater supplies after surface wells have dried up that has helped keep food prices low for now. And the fact that so many economies are tied together globally has also tempered food price increases and shortages, said Josh Green, CEO of Panjiva, a supply chain research firm.

"A bad crop of, say, olives in Spain can be balanced out somewhere else in the world," Green said. "But the local impact of drought can't be ignored."

Something else that can't be ignored is the human cost of drought. The WEF reports that since 1900, global droughts have affected 2 billion people, leading to more than 11 million deaths.

With drought almost guaranteed, the issue, say experts, is how the world deals with dwindling surface and groundwater supplies. Solutions include more genetically modified organisms, or GMOs, of crops that are designed to grow in dry areas. There's also a need for better farming methods, as agriculture soaks up nearly 70 percent of all global water use.

"Some plants like corn, for example, use copious amounts of water," said Villanova's Galgano. "We need to change those crops along with using better irrigation methods."

Farmers and businesses need better tools to deal with drought, said Kenneth Cassman, professor of agronomy at the University of Nebraska. That includes better data about the weather.

Some businesses are stepping into the weather data gap. Omniearth is a company that, with its partners, uses satellites to gather a wide range of information including climate change and water use patterns.

"We have the capability to study how much water people are using," said Lars Dyrud, president and CEO of the company. "It helps business and communities plan for the future."

But what's needed most is placing a higher economic value on water, said Donald Wilhite, a professor of climate science at the University of Nebraska.

"We need to price it accordingly. When you turn on the tap and water flows, there's little recognition it's a finite resource," he said.

But getting people to realize that won't be easy, said ASU's Haglund, who just returned from Brazil, another country in a drought ? the worst in 84 years.

"I was in Sao Paulo, and I saw at least one person every day washing their sidewalk or car with a garden hose at full blast," she said. "That's with the main reservoirs not even at 13 percent of capacity."

Also, putting a higher cost on water in drought-stricken countries like Kenya, with so much poverty, would hurt those who need the resource the most, said Kaplan University's Wilson. She said that families in the countryside there are leaving for the cities in order to escape the drought and the high cost of water.

What's missing in all the drought talk is advanced planning by political leaders, said the University of Nebraska's Wilhite, who puts a lot of blame on governments around the globe for failing to think beyond the last drought. That failure could bring on national security issues and heighten conflicts over water and food in the future.

But getting there won't be easy, said Villanova's Galgano, who argued that weather models suggest places in the world that have abundant water supplies now may experience water shortages in the future.

"It does not seem likely that we can realistically slow down population growth or the demands of economic growth that comes with it," Galgano said.

First published September 6th 2014, 5:22 am

Peace! :)

http://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/global-drought-threatens-water-food-supplies-get-used-it-n196841
 
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