The Tailing Willie Experiment - update

russellk

Registered User
Forum Member
Jun 2, 2009
239
0
0
Well as we sit here with roughly 40% of the season completed, my theory is proving correct.

Simply put, Willie's goldens are money in the bank.

These plays remain by far the most successful and the most consistent picks by anyone I have ever seen in any sport. We all know how incredibly difficult it is to win at a greater than 60% clip, and yet Willie with his goldens manages it every single season. Just amazing.

His silvers and bronzes? Not so much (let me reiterate once again that I say this with all the respect in the world, Willie I know you know I have nothing but love for you but I need to say it otherwise your loyal defenders will jump down my throat :mj07: )

All I am doing is pointing out the numbers:
Golds are at an astounding 64% and 11 games above .500
Silvers right around .500, 1 game below
Bronzes at 42% and 10 games below .500

And this is basically what I have seen over the past 4 seasons (though I do expect that both silvers and bronzes will be abover .500 by season's end, though still nowhere near what the golds will do).

Overall Willie is up 7 and a half units, but his golds are up almost 29 units, while his silvers and bronzes combined are down over 21 units. Again, roughly what I would expect.

By way of comparison (remember instead of betting gold/silver/bronze at 3/2/1 units, I only bet the golds but put all 6 units on them) at this point I am 25-14 and up $6006 or over 60 units!

I swear, betting Willie's golds and nothing but is just about the surest way to make money that I have ever seen. Truly there is not another investment that you can make that has this incredibly high rate of return, with this relatively low risk.

Willie's silvers and bronzes however, are really more about enjoying having action and being able to have more than just 4 plays a week. Keep in mind I am not judging! I myself am a recovering action junkie so I know all to well the temptation, and there's nothing wrong with having some fun. I am not suggesting that Willie not play these, the only thing I am saying is that there is a big discrepancy between the success rate of the golds and of the silvers and bronzes, and there is not a corresponding discrepancy in units bet. IMO the golds are worth 10 X what the bronzes are worth, and yet units wagered are only 3 X.

To me it comes down to a business decision. Based strictly on the numbers, if one insisted on playing golds, silvers and bronzes, it seems to me that a ratio of 5/.5/.5 makes more fiscal sense then 3/2/1. You don't have to deny yourself the fun and excitement of having action daily. It would just be better if it didn't eat into the profits that the golds bring in quite so much.

Anyhow, I've already written way more than I planned so I will stop now.

Just remember! Nothing would make me happier than to see Willie make even more profit then he already is! I am sorry if I come across judgmental, but my motives are pure!

Willie, you rock. Thank you for continuing to post brother.
 

Willie the Whip

Registered User
Forum Member
Jan 13, 2002
5,314
10
0
Cleveland, Ohio
Russell,

I dont take you as judgemental, I appreciate the feedback, as you noticed im tracking the units won on gold/silver/bronze this year, so i could see it clearly and SO FAR you are right and OF COURSE I know my golds are gonna be better, these are the plays I LIKE THE MOST, so i guess i am definitely doing something right as they (knock on wood) continue to do well each year so far! I may look into changing my units BUT my Silvers are doing better than the Bronzes so I wouldnt play the same amount of units on those two but I may look at trying something different unit wise but not yet, I cant change mid-season, things are going good! Thanks again and Good Luck to Us! ;)
 

Chip Hilton

Registered User
Forum Member
Feb 14, 2008
1,070
0
0
RI
WTW

WTW

Russellk - I'm glad things are working for you on the Gold selections and it certainly carries some weight this year. However, and WTW can correct me if I'm wrong, in the two previous years I followed WTW's selections, the variance hasn't been as exagerated as it has been this year. The percentages between gold-silver-bronze of 64%, 49%, 45% or units of +29, -10, -8 certainly back your theory THIS YEAR. However, in other years, I think the variance between the three levels were much less. I think one of the two years, WTW finished between 50-60% and plus units on all three levels. I just want to point out that you are correct this year but think it's more of a matter that you picked the right year to apply this theory rather than it is any track record for WTW. I have a feeling the silver and bronze will be in the plus before long and let's all hope the gold continues successfully.
 

Willie the Whip

Registered User
Forum Member
Jan 13, 2002
5,314
10
0
Cleveland, Ohio
Chip, you are right they are usually closer, and This is the first year Im actually tracking how and where my profit comes from, I even went back and found my posted records and Im gonna post it, I found that 2007-08 my golds were only 49.4% and I only finished the year overall around even money! The others were all ahead.
 

Jaxx

Go Pokes!
Forum Member
Jan 5, 2003
7,084
88
48
FL
Chip, you are right they are usually closer, and This is the first year Im actually tracking how and where my profit comes from, I even went back and found my posted records and Im gonna post it, I found that 2007-08 my golds were only 49.4% and I only finished the year overall around even money! The others were all ahead.

This is good info fella's. I have only been playing the Golds and Cherry pick the silvers when I like. Have done real well Thanks to Willie. May rethink my stradegy for the rest of the year. It is so hard to tail most cappers that are good due to added plays, lines moves and posting times but Willie makes it easy.

Willie is the man!
Thanks
:toast:
 

russellk

Registered User
Forum Member
Jun 2, 2009
239
0
0
I may look into changing my units BUT my Silvers are doing better than the Bronzes so I wouldnt play the same amount of units on those two but I may look at trying something different unit wise but not yet, I cant change mid-season, things are going good! ;)


Willie you are 100% right. Changing anything mid-season is a recipe for disaster, especially when things are going well overall. I also agree that silvers should be more than bronzes.

So with that said, I can't wait until next season when I check your first post and see you with a 5/.75/.25 ratio! :mj07:
 
Bet on MyBookie
Top