Think I've got a solid winner here. . .

[Nickelback]

Not a system play yet, but I've looked into the Pac 10 games and this one completely jumped out at me:

Washington St. laying 5.5 over Oregon

Ducks have played only two games on the road. . . one against Arizona and a nailbiter against UCLA. Now they go up against the best team in the Pac 10 IMO on their turf AND giving up less than a TD?

Another problem for Oregon is their secondary. . . if WSU's strength was their running game, I'd lay off this completely. . . but they win by throwing the ball down the field. How will Oregon stop this attack? I just don't see it happening.

My only concern:

There might be rain in the forecast for the game on Saturday afternoon. . . therefore, I'll lay off this game until I have a better idea of the conditions. If they are reasonable for Gesser and WSU to throw the ball, then I'll definitely be on them.

Just can't see a reason besides the weather to lay off this one.

GL all. . . hopefully I'll be able to come up with a system winner to get back on track after last weekend's loss.

 

[pt1gard]

N.

N.

weather is terrible up here, rain projected for a week ... but ill keep ya up to date, med. rain been called for

 

[WAZZU]

Tough game, they always seem to get us when it matters most. Hope they win

 

[Nickelback]

Those of you in Washington, I'd really like it if you continued to update me and everyone else as to the weather up there. Also field conditions which could obvioulsy slow the game way down.

If the field conditions are decent and light rain, then I'll be all over WSU. . . guess we'll just have to wait and see

 

[gardenweasel]

wash st

wash st

seems to get dissed on a regular basis...i like `em here...so cal looked like the class of the pac10 but,wash st continues to win....gesser is a winner...

 

[pt1gard]

line dropped to 4

line dropped to 4

what gives?

no lock or anything, but i found that very interesting that suddenly line drops today a whole 1.5

comments?

 

[gardenweasel]

lack of respect?

lack of respect?

everybody and their wubby loved az st last week...nobody liked `em vs so cal....i have been winning with them this year....i just think they are consistently undervalued....still,that sudden drop is strange...

 

[Nickelback]

I think the line drop is due to the questionable weather over anything else. WSU needs to be able to throw the ball or this could be a VERY long day if they have to rely on their rushing attack.

Starting to look at the total in this one. If the weather is going to be this bad and the field in bad condition, then why not the under 59? :shrug:

Of course, I rarely play totals, but this has potential

 

[Valuist]

I'm sure someone knows of a game or two that's gone over when played in the rain this year but I cannot think of one. Also, it looks like there will be a bit of wind tomorrow which should further hinder the passing and kicking games.

 

[Nickelback]

Sorry, nevermind. . . made a mistake looking at lines. . . I'll try and use this post to list some plays in a little while. Not looking good for system plays this weekend though

 

[gardenweasel]

i know washington`s famous for their rain

i know washington`s famous for their rain

but,50?...if it`s not windy,the rain can be dealt with...might even provide some opportunity for points off turnovers...i don`t see wash st not throwing on that secondary unless there`s a blizzard...west coast guys,do you think if this drops any farther there might be value?

 

[Nickelback]

At last, we have a system play:

System plays to date: 7 wins, 2 losses with 5 of those dogs winning outright.

Taking UAB +7.5 over Southern Miss

This line should fall so get on this one soon if you want. Can't see it staying above 7 or even at 7 for very long. Southern Miss is hampered by their loss of RB Nix against TCU last weekend. UAB has had two weeks to think about their close game against Army. Should come out nice and rested for this one. Also, 7.5 should be a lot of points. . . should be a low scoring game. UAB has a decent shot at winning this outright, but the points is the only way to go in this one.

Good luck all!

 

[gardenweasel]

nickel

nickel

check my thread a few pages back"obscure little dog".....same thing....usm yielding over 200 ypg rushing last 3....nix out(as you said)....uab has a history of covering usm as a dog....this is a very weak usm club...gave up 9 sacks to tcu last week...and look at the stats in their last 3 games....outstated ...finally,uab frosh runner burks coming around and uab much better than in early season.....tough at home....usm 2-11 ats last 13 as a dog....i`d play the moneyline also...g.l.

 

[Nickelback]

gardenweasel,

Glad we're on the same page bud. . . good luck this weekend!

 

[Nickelback]

Still only one system play today with UAB +7

Gonna add four more plays for the day as opinion plays:

NC State ML
Northern Illinois ML
San Jose St ML

North Texas laying 14

I'm probably a fool playing those three on the ML instead of taking the points, but what the hell! I think winning 2 out of 3 is a good possibility. . . at least 1 out of 3.

 

[Nickelback]

Line dropping ever so slightly on UAB. . . gonna play the ML +240 as well. . .

Laying off the WSU/Oregon game completely. Just not worth a play especially when we still have no idea what the weather will be like. Also the total has jumped up 2 points. GL to those of you who actually play this game. Still think WSU laying only 4 has value.

 

[Nickelback]

System plays now at 8 wins, 2 losses with UAB covering by half a point for us. Have a feeling that I may be one of few that was able to get this game at +7.5 though.

Would have been nice to cash in UAB on the ML as well, but that's the way it goes.

See you all next week.