This trend seems to keep paying off.

[yyz]

I have not done a formal study on this, but I think I might start tracking it for the rest of the season.

I mentioned a couple of weeks ago, about a friend of mine who likes to take the ML wager, when he likes a dog of about 6 points or less.

Just by looking at games that meet this criteria, it seems quite a few cover this bet. (as opposed to losing the game, and still covering the number) I mean, if your team gets pounded, the ML/spread didn't matter, right?

You get some very nice value on these plays, and let's face it...... There are not too many games falling on the number this season.

Looking at today's games, you can get Toronto at +160 rather than grab the +4' points.

They are playing at home, and that is an obvious edge to be factored into this type of wager.

If you wanted to be ballsy, and grab the Sonics tonight, they would bang out +260 at San Antonio (+6')

I am not saying that you blindly follow the dog in all of these situations, but if you do like the dog, consider taking the sweeter payoff.

(I actually like Philly today, so the Toronto bet would be a no-go.)

Just something to chew on.

 

[Dry1]

Good timing on that theory - sonics win

 

[yyz]

The theory has been solid for years, actually, acording to my friend.

I did not take either dog, so I made nothing, but it is a very solid tool.

 

[Nick Douglas]

I have been using this angle for the last couple of years with somewhat mixed results. In 2000-2001, I made a relatively significant amount of extra money playing moneylines rather than pointspreads on dogs between 1 and 6 1/2. Last season, I made less money playing moneylines than I would have playing pointspreads. Overall, the money I made in 2000-2001 was more than the amount I lost out on in 2001-2002, so I guess I would say that moneylines is the way to go in most cases. The only caveats I would give are:

1) If you are going to lose betting spreads, betting the moneyline isn't going to make you turn a profit. That means you should learn to find value and post a winning record betting spreads on dogs, then try to bet moneylines when the spread falls in a certain range.

2) This angle is streaky. I have noticed that when it rains, it really, really pours when you bet like this. In my experience I have gone through times where up to 3 or 4 would-be wins in a row will end up covering and losing the game straight up. It is painful when that happens and it can absolutely kill your bankroll. If you hit a stretch where you should be hitting, say, 4 of 10 ATS and then 3 of those 4 wins are negated because you bet the moneyline instead of the spread on dogs, that 1-9 stretch can kill a lot of players. You have to play extra conservative because the losing streaks are far worse when you play your dogs on the moneyline.