This week

[TheShrimp]

Last week: 6-5 +1 (Hitting the KC ML helped pay off the vig on the other games)

this week's plays:
NYG +12.5 <- I got a piece at 13.5, but that's unavailable now
TENN -3 <- makes me feel like such a sucker, but. . .
BUFF +5
DET +3
NO +2.5

I really like buff and det. I love what both did in the off-season. I saw a lot to build on from BOTH teams last season. Of course I went 0-2 with them last week. Maybe I'm being stubborn. I sort of chose them pre-season as two teams I thought would have value. Maybe with the high-profile Bledsoe pick-up buff is getting TOO much credit, though.

I'm holding out for a better number than +180 on BUFF SU. If I can get 2-1, I'll probably bite.

Good back-n-forth in Nicks' thread on the ravens games. They're still interesting even if they aren't as good as the past. Billick and Ray Lewis are such winners and competitors. They're just not a team that's going to be out of games, UNLESS....Redman kills them....which he will (with all these ... I'm starting to feel like gardenweasel).

Redman is so untrustworthy and the Bucs have such great interception guys with Lynch and Barber. I wouldn't be surprised if Redman throws 3 picks this week.

I still like their O-line, and I think they can sustain a drive, but the threat of the pick is always going to loom with this guy even if he gets good protection, which will be tough this week. Is Sapp fading? Don't know. He had a sack last week, but only had 6 all last year. Back from the dead?

I'll probably end up with something on the ravens, but for now, I'm steering clear.

 

[gardenweasel]

shrimp

shrimp

if you like the ravens,you might wanna` wait...i`d be shocked if this dropped...if the bucs lose this week,you can stick a fork in them.....if they can`t beat the ravens,they aren`t beating the rams next week..and if they start 0-3,they may have trouble righting the ship.....i think they know how important this game is......but,i`m not trying to shade your opinion,just letting you know that i think a 4 may be out there at some point....waiting for your take on vargas-de la hoya....g.l.




p.s.-why isn`t the dallas line moving?....from what i`m reading,everybody and their brother is all over tennessee...i`m waiting for a 3.5(and hopefully a 4)before jumping on the cowboys....i see an extreme over-reaction against the teams that lost games they were supposed to win last sunday....gives us value...g.l.

 

[TheShrimp]

Yeah, it seems like everyone's on Tenn. Maybe they want it that way. That just seems like such a sucker line, and I totally bit.

I thought that line should have been 4-4.5, but I thought the books would post it around 5.5-6. It really jumped out at me. I'm not usually off by that much.

I don't know if we'll see the Ravens move to +4. They're still getting public props for having a good D and good defense at home doesn't usually get 4. That's a pretty sketchy O they're going up against this week. Tough one.

I'll do a bit of a write-up in "off the wall" about the fight. I don't think I have much to add, though, to what's been said. I'm gonna be up in NYC this weekend and I'll miss it if I can't find a place to watch it near my hotel. I'm going to miss football on Saturday and Sunday, too.

TheShrimp

 

[TheShrimp]

Adding :
NE +1.5

Little write-up:
There are 4 home dogs this week (GB@NO, TENN@DALL, TB@BAL, PHI@WASH).

In week 1, home dogs were 6-1 ATS, and 4-3 SU. The one who DIDN't cover was Buffalo who were getting 3 and that one went into overtime. Covering were JAX, DEN, NE, HOU, NYG, CARO.

Do any of those games from last week look like any from this week?

Well, two of those home dogs were NE and DEN (2-0 ATS), two teams expected to be decent this year. None of the home dogs this week were really expected to do much, except maybe WASH.

The other 5 were BUFF, JAX, HOU, NYG, CARO, none of whom were expected to be much this year.

Buff, Jax, NYG (2-1 ATS) were all playing a team that maybe was expected to be a playoff team this year (although NYJ and IND are pretty iffy).

All of the home dogs this week are playing teams with pre-season expectations of the playoffs. None of the home dogs had play-off expectations. That kind of talk can really shade the lines.

Anyway, what's this all add up to? Home field advantage is still a big factor in the NFL and pre-season hype, and last year's results can really hold a lot of sway over the spreads (always keep in mind Joe Public). With the parity that's been evident in the NFL recently, one or two player losses on PHI and one or two pick-ups on WASH (or whoever) can really change the relative strength of the teams. Or at least get them closer to even. . .now put them on the other team's field early in the year, and give me the home team with points. Don't be fooled by talk that isn't based on any on-field performance. Look for those home doggies.

One more thing, 7 games last week were decided by 4 or less, and two of the games decided by 6 were OT games, which easily could have been 3 pt. games.

Don't bet 'em blindly, but keep an eye on those doggies, especially these home doggies w/o any playoff expectations.

 

[freelancc]

does anyone have a reason why Dallas has maintained the +3 all these days??

are the casinos expecting Troy Aikman to return to the field?

 

[gardenweasel]

lancc

lancc

that is the $64,000 question...if what i`m seeing isn`t a bunch of guys blowin` smoke,this line should be 4 already.....that should be a concern to tennessee bettors....i always thought money doesn`t always move the line....i think the linesmakers have other considerations....by the way,i got new england +3 when it first came out at olympic....i always take the jets on the road...play against at home...shows a profit the last few years....g.l.

 

[TheShrimp]

Adding: Redskins +3. (I like the +125 on the ML, too.)

This week: 4-2 +1.8
Season: 10-7 +2.8

Never played Buff SU.

Ya know, the one that really bothers me is that Dallas play.

Betting pro football lines completely against my better judgement has been good to me for so long. Its my bread-n-butter, and there I go, just taking the bait on this one.

That said, the square play was on FSU against UM this weekend too, and that cashed...so I can't complain.

I probably have to reconsider my pre-season thoughts on detroit. That's two road games to start the season though, so maybe they'll be getting too many when they return home. I love cashing bets on sucky teams so I'll probably stick with 'em.

TheShrimp

 

[TheShrimp]

This week: 4-3 +.7
YTD : 10-8 +1.7

Wrong side of that one last night.

Made a small play on over 44.5, went to bed at half thinking it was money in the bank. BAH!