***BEST BET
Detroit over NY Jets* by 11 (Friday)
Hi, my name is Joey Harrington, #1 QB for the Detroit Lions, and my regular-season record as a starter since my head coach Steve Mariucci got stuck with me is about 38% wins. During this off-season, my coach went out and signed Jeff Garcia, the quarterback who helped him have a relatively successful run of playoff seasons in San Francisco? I guess coach brought in ?his guy? as something to motivate me to get off my overpaid, underachieving butt. I sure hope we call a lot of pass plays so I can show him a thing or two. I mean, the situation is pretty ripe for me, us, with our usual strong pass protection, to exploit some of the new personnel in the Jets? secondary with my fleet-footed wideouts. Since the Jets? quick pass rusher John Abraham is out, we?ll have ample time, right? Do you think coach will give this Jeff guy every opportunity to beat me out, put him positions to make good plays and stuff? You BET he will. Do you think that this Jeff guy knows how to run Mariucci?s offense better than me? You BET he does. Is the New York quarterback, Chad Pennington, coming off shoulder surgery? You BET he is. Will he see much action? You BET he won?t. Do my Lions teammates consistently bring some of the best special teams play? You BET they do. Are the Jets working on new offensive stuff that they aren?t familiar with yet? You BET they are! Have they encountered some offensive line issues since last year? You BET! Can their back-up QBs Fiedler and Bollinger carry Jeff?s jock? No way, man. DETROIT, 21-10.
***BEST BET
Cleveland* over NY Giants by 12 (Saturday)
Last season, the Giants opened Year One of the Tom Coughlin regime as a losing team from the prior year, with a boatload of new free agents in new systems with new coaches, on their home field vs. the ?superior? Kansas City Chiefs. Yet is was the veteran-laden Chiefs were whistled for 14 penalties to only six for the Giants. The Giants won and covered. In this spot, the Giants are in the Chiefs? role from that opening game a year ago. Cleveland is the Giants from last year: A host coming off a horrible season, in Year One of a new coaching regime. Romeo Crennel has coached under both Bill Belichick and Bill Parcells, guys who force their players to take pre-season games seriously. Coughlin does, too, but he was targeted for the red carpet game LAST season. For this, any ushering down the aisle belongs to Romeo and the Browns. They take their football seriously in Cleveland, where the owner who inherited the team from his recently-deceased father is intent on restoring respectability and accountability. Trent Dilfer is the new starting QB and is backed up by local favorites Charlie Frye and Josh Harris, rookies who played their college ball at Akron and Bowling Green. Now, wouldn?t it be nice if these kids made some plays against a roster that New York turned over once again, to kick off a feel-good attitude in Cleveland? These things tend to happen. Meanwhile, a New York offense that doesn?t feature Tiki Barber (it?s Week 1 on the road, why would it?) is a New York offense that figures to operate in sputter mode. CLEVELAND, 24-12.
Buffalo over Indianapolis* by 3 (Saturday)
The amateurs will pull out the Game Under the Belt theory for this one, landing on Indy because the Colts had a game in Tokyo to supposedly work out the kinks. The linemakers have already anticipated it by opening the Colts at ?7 (now down to ?6). But you will say, ?Who would want to lay a TD in the pre-season with a team coming off a trip to Japan?? The linemakers didn?t set it high because he thinks the Colts will cover. He set it high because he knows all about sheep following herds who look at black-and-white numbers without analyzing the factors behind their creation. The Bills are working a new #1 QB into the offense, which means that J.P. Losman (and veteran Kelly Holcomb, a former Colt!) will get to operate a large portion of ?real? plays against a soft defensive unit that gives up passing yardage. Last week, the Indianapolis defense sat back and allowed the #2 Schaub kid on Atlanta, who completed only 45% of his throws last year, to complete 11 of 13 passes. Buffalo has some of the best defensive talent and depth in the NFL, so their second unit should be able to outplay the Colts? twos when either Jim Sorgi or Travis Brown is leading the Indy offense. BUFFALO, 24-21.
San Francisco* over Oakland by 7 (Saturday)
New head coach, first home game, with San Francisco and Mike Nolan. The 49ers are a home dog because of their 2-12 SU record last season. No other reason, really. Maybe the presence of Randy Moss on the Raiders has created an extra point or two in their rating for this game. Sure, the Raiders could come out and throw a quick TD pass to Moss. But this is the NFL, where talent gaps are minimal. After Moss exits, all the karma still belongs to the 49ers, where last season?s record was achieved by an injured roster playing for inferior coaches (Dennis Erickson? Ted Tollner? Yow!) It?s Week 1 of the pre-season, and they will not be any healthier than when they step out on the field for the opening kickoff. San Francisco QB Tim Rattay, for example, is in a completely different situation now than he was at this time a year ago, when he was the designated #1 who had the handicap of missing all of mini-camp and lots of summer workouts while re-habbing a sore groin. This time around, he comes in fighting to keep the #1 job, while in much better physical condition. Big difference in his production potential! No surprise if the guy accounts for two San Francisco scoring drives. SAN FRANCISCO, 28-21.
Green Bay* over San Diego by 2 (Thursday)
Chargers? head coach Marty Schottenheimer is on the short list of NFL coaches who do not take pre-season games seriously, so the ?1 line in front of San Diego?s name is a yellow caution flag. The Chargers have better personnel overall, but immersing Philip Rivers into the offense to prepare him for a #2 role behind Drew Brees, with no more Doug Flutie available to do funky stuff that produces points, would seem to put Chargers backers in a precarious position. West Coast-based teams will frequently keep some of the best players home when they make long trips like this one. GREEN BAY, 19-17.
Cincinnati* over New England by 4 (Friday)
The Pats are in a first game with two new offensive and defensive coordinators, more free agent discards and pick-ups than most other teams. The teams met last season in Week 13, when the Patriots could clinch a playoff spot. The Bengals moved the ball well and were hurt by three bad turnovers, two in New England territory, one in the end zone. QBs Palmer and Kitna are entrenched in the Bengals? system and work with excellent depth at WR. Prior to the game last season, Belichick had reason to be afraid: "They're very aggressive going for the ball. Palmer throws it up there high and the receivers go up high and get it and they come down with it and they're tough after the catch too." CINCINNATI, 27-23.
St. Louis* over Chicago by 4 (Friday)
Put away the phony angle that assumes that Bears head coach Lovie Smith will want to go in and beat the Rams, whose defense he coordinated only two seasons ago. He already did that in his first pre-season game LAST year, 13-10 on his home field, when St. Louis #1 QB Marc Bulger threw only 6 passes for the Rams, who gave then-rookie Jeff Smoker and vegetable Chris Chandler the majority of the snaps. RB Steven Jackson, was seeing the first action of his NFL career for St. Louis. The Rams were just 2-for-9 on third down and ?2 in TO Ratio. With Smoker and Jackson having a better idea of their assignments, and the Bears needing to work on all facets of their NFC-worst offensive game, the switch to home field puts the Rams in position to make it a higher scoring game than last season?s. ST. LOUIS, 24-20.
Minnesota* over Kansas City by 5 (Friday)
This is pre-season, where, on Week 1 last year, the Chiefs were on the road and were whistled for 14 penalties in Giants Stadium. A home team with new ownership (Vikings) always needs to keep some positive energy flowing for as long as possible until the roof caves in. New blood on the Minnesota defense will be flying to the football, making plays by accident in some instances against a more veteran team whose new, free agent defensive imports are virtually assured of starting jobs when the regular season bell rings. MINNESOTA, 27-22.
Tampa Bay over Tennessee* by 1 (Friday)
The way each team is being set up this season, OVER seems like a reasonable way to go. The Bucs got quicker on offense, at both RB and WR, and their QBs have one more year of Jon Gruden?s playbook under their belts. Gruden seems wary of his aging defense and is intent on putting more punch in the offense now that he has kicked slug Brad Johnson out of the QB picture. From the Tennessee perspective, there will be many moments when young defensive personnel has no clue what is happening out there. They?ll be looking at this game as a way to get mistakes out of the way early. Meanwhile, their offense is looking to play faster under new coordinator Norm Chow. Wing it, guys! TAMPA BAY, 31-30.
Detroit over NY Jets* by 11 (Friday)
Hi, my name is Joey Harrington, #1 QB for the Detroit Lions, and my regular-season record as a starter since my head coach Steve Mariucci got stuck with me is about 38% wins. During this off-season, my coach went out and signed Jeff Garcia, the quarterback who helped him have a relatively successful run of playoff seasons in San Francisco? I guess coach brought in ?his guy? as something to motivate me to get off my overpaid, underachieving butt. I sure hope we call a lot of pass plays so I can show him a thing or two. I mean, the situation is pretty ripe for me, us, with our usual strong pass protection, to exploit some of the new personnel in the Jets? secondary with my fleet-footed wideouts. Since the Jets? quick pass rusher John Abraham is out, we?ll have ample time, right? Do you think coach will give this Jeff guy every opportunity to beat me out, put him positions to make good plays and stuff? You BET he will. Do you think that this Jeff guy knows how to run Mariucci?s offense better than me? You BET he does. Is the New York quarterback, Chad Pennington, coming off shoulder surgery? You BET he is. Will he see much action? You BET he won?t. Do my Lions teammates consistently bring some of the best special teams play? You BET they do. Are the Jets working on new offensive stuff that they aren?t familiar with yet? You BET they are! Have they encountered some offensive line issues since last year? You BET! Can their back-up QBs Fiedler and Bollinger carry Jeff?s jock? No way, man. DETROIT, 21-10.
***BEST BET
Cleveland* over NY Giants by 12 (Saturday)
Last season, the Giants opened Year One of the Tom Coughlin regime as a losing team from the prior year, with a boatload of new free agents in new systems with new coaches, on their home field vs. the ?superior? Kansas City Chiefs. Yet is was the veteran-laden Chiefs were whistled for 14 penalties to only six for the Giants. The Giants won and covered. In this spot, the Giants are in the Chiefs? role from that opening game a year ago. Cleveland is the Giants from last year: A host coming off a horrible season, in Year One of a new coaching regime. Romeo Crennel has coached under both Bill Belichick and Bill Parcells, guys who force their players to take pre-season games seriously. Coughlin does, too, but he was targeted for the red carpet game LAST season. For this, any ushering down the aisle belongs to Romeo and the Browns. They take their football seriously in Cleveland, where the owner who inherited the team from his recently-deceased father is intent on restoring respectability and accountability. Trent Dilfer is the new starting QB and is backed up by local favorites Charlie Frye and Josh Harris, rookies who played their college ball at Akron and Bowling Green. Now, wouldn?t it be nice if these kids made some plays against a roster that New York turned over once again, to kick off a feel-good attitude in Cleveland? These things tend to happen. Meanwhile, a New York offense that doesn?t feature Tiki Barber (it?s Week 1 on the road, why would it?) is a New York offense that figures to operate in sputter mode. CLEVELAND, 24-12.
Buffalo over Indianapolis* by 3 (Saturday)
The amateurs will pull out the Game Under the Belt theory for this one, landing on Indy because the Colts had a game in Tokyo to supposedly work out the kinks. The linemakers have already anticipated it by opening the Colts at ?7 (now down to ?6). But you will say, ?Who would want to lay a TD in the pre-season with a team coming off a trip to Japan?? The linemakers didn?t set it high because he thinks the Colts will cover. He set it high because he knows all about sheep following herds who look at black-and-white numbers without analyzing the factors behind their creation. The Bills are working a new #1 QB into the offense, which means that J.P. Losman (and veteran Kelly Holcomb, a former Colt!) will get to operate a large portion of ?real? plays against a soft defensive unit that gives up passing yardage. Last week, the Indianapolis defense sat back and allowed the #2 Schaub kid on Atlanta, who completed only 45% of his throws last year, to complete 11 of 13 passes. Buffalo has some of the best defensive talent and depth in the NFL, so their second unit should be able to outplay the Colts? twos when either Jim Sorgi or Travis Brown is leading the Indy offense. BUFFALO, 24-21.
San Francisco* over Oakland by 7 (Saturday)
New head coach, first home game, with San Francisco and Mike Nolan. The 49ers are a home dog because of their 2-12 SU record last season. No other reason, really. Maybe the presence of Randy Moss on the Raiders has created an extra point or two in their rating for this game. Sure, the Raiders could come out and throw a quick TD pass to Moss. But this is the NFL, where talent gaps are minimal. After Moss exits, all the karma still belongs to the 49ers, where last season?s record was achieved by an injured roster playing for inferior coaches (Dennis Erickson? Ted Tollner? Yow!) It?s Week 1 of the pre-season, and they will not be any healthier than when they step out on the field for the opening kickoff. San Francisco QB Tim Rattay, for example, is in a completely different situation now than he was at this time a year ago, when he was the designated #1 who had the handicap of missing all of mini-camp and lots of summer workouts while re-habbing a sore groin. This time around, he comes in fighting to keep the #1 job, while in much better physical condition. Big difference in his production potential! No surprise if the guy accounts for two San Francisco scoring drives. SAN FRANCISCO, 28-21.
Green Bay* over San Diego by 2 (Thursday)
Chargers? head coach Marty Schottenheimer is on the short list of NFL coaches who do not take pre-season games seriously, so the ?1 line in front of San Diego?s name is a yellow caution flag. The Chargers have better personnel overall, but immersing Philip Rivers into the offense to prepare him for a #2 role behind Drew Brees, with no more Doug Flutie available to do funky stuff that produces points, would seem to put Chargers backers in a precarious position. West Coast-based teams will frequently keep some of the best players home when they make long trips like this one. GREEN BAY, 19-17.
Cincinnati* over New England by 4 (Friday)
The Pats are in a first game with two new offensive and defensive coordinators, more free agent discards and pick-ups than most other teams. The teams met last season in Week 13, when the Patriots could clinch a playoff spot. The Bengals moved the ball well and were hurt by three bad turnovers, two in New England territory, one in the end zone. QBs Palmer and Kitna are entrenched in the Bengals? system and work with excellent depth at WR. Prior to the game last season, Belichick had reason to be afraid: "They're very aggressive going for the ball. Palmer throws it up there high and the receivers go up high and get it and they come down with it and they're tough after the catch too." CINCINNATI, 27-23.
St. Louis* over Chicago by 4 (Friday)
Put away the phony angle that assumes that Bears head coach Lovie Smith will want to go in and beat the Rams, whose defense he coordinated only two seasons ago. He already did that in his first pre-season game LAST year, 13-10 on his home field, when St. Louis #1 QB Marc Bulger threw only 6 passes for the Rams, who gave then-rookie Jeff Smoker and vegetable Chris Chandler the majority of the snaps. RB Steven Jackson, was seeing the first action of his NFL career for St. Louis. The Rams were just 2-for-9 on third down and ?2 in TO Ratio. With Smoker and Jackson having a better idea of their assignments, and the Bears needing to work on all facets of their NFC-worst offensive game, the switch to home field puts the Rams in position to make it a higher scoring game than last season?s. ST. LOUIS, 24-20.
Minnesota* over Kansas City by 5 (Friday)
This is pre-season, where, on Week 1 last year, the Chiefs were on the road and were whistled for 14 penalties in Giants Stadium. A home team with new ownership (Vikings) always needs to keep some positive energy flowing for as long as possible until the roof caves in. New blood on the Minnesota defense will be flying to the football, making plays by accident in some instances against a more veteran team whose new, free agent defensive imports are virtually assured of starting jobs when the regular season bell rings. MINNESOTA, 27-22.
Tampa Bay over Tennessee* by 1 (Friday)
The way each team is being set up this season, OVER seems like a reasonable way to go. The Bucs got quicker on offense, at both RB and WR, and their QBs have one more year of Jon Gruden?s playbook under their belts. Gruden seems wary of his aging defense and is intent on putting more punch in the offense now that he has kicked slug Brad Johnson out of the QB picture. From the Tennessee perspective, there will be many moments when young defensive personnel has no clue what is happening out there. They?ll be looking at this game as a way to get mistakes out of the way early. Meanwhile, their offense is looking to play faster under new coordinator Norm Chow. Wing it, guys! TAMPA BAY, 31-30.
