This week's selections

[TheShrimp]

Someone tell me how a guy who picks about 95% dogs goes 3-5 on a weekend when dogs go 11-5? Especially after hitting my one favorite. I think I was on every dog who didn't cover except GB.

I'm getting back to some home dogs this weekend. These all fit nicely into something Nolan has been talking about -- home teams getting points against teams coming off SU wins.
CIN +130 (1 -> 1.3)
MIN +3.5 (1.1 -> 1)
BUFF +2.5 (1.05 -> 1)
DALL +1.5 (1.1 -> 1)
DET +6.5 (1.1 -> 1)
JAX +3 (1.15 -> 1)

I will also be on
NYJ +6, but I'm waiting for this to go up.

Notes (briefly):
CIN. really see an evenly matched game here. Lewis is out for good. Stokely is out for good. Dillon has had good days against the ravens before. CIN is playing better and comes back home after playing a tough team on the road last week. Sometimes Ravens really phone it in on the road, and I think that might be coming this week. Too many distractions with Ray Ray, and the whole Ozzie Newsome thing. CIN gets their second win, easily.

MIN. Almost entirely just one of those I view as anti-public. But, they've been playing better, especially at home. I set this line like at 6, and was going to pound MINN if that's what it was. Was really surprised to see the 3.5, but I'll still take it.

BUFF. With a win already over MIA and MIA heading to the north in late November, I just love this. BUFF gets back on track and takes this one. MIA was a 4 point fave vs. BUFF at home in week 7, lost outright, and is now a 2.5 point fave on the road. hmmmm.

DALL. 10 in a row. They play real tough D at home and will be in this the whole game. Give me the 1.5, but if the ML goes better than +100, I'm on it.

DET +6.5. NE still has problems. Beating MINNY by a TD at home didn't solve them. They haven't been a stellar road team losing at SD, MIA, OAK, and almost at CHI. DET has been in it at home, with the win over CHI, the cover over GB, the win over DALL. Gimme the 6 and a hook.

JAX. Maybe a better team than PITT if Stewart's at the helm. A tough place to win, a very tough place to win by a lot. Is JAX ever out of it against ANY team at home? If they lose, its by less than a TD. They've already played PHI and IND well at home, and have had probs with HOU and a weak performance at DALL last week, but I think they win this one outright.

---
38-40-1 -3.25 on the year.

 

[TheShrimp]

This weekend: 3-3 -.2
Year: 41-43-1 -3.45

---

I suppose I got lucky in the jacksonville game, but that MINNY game just slays me. Same deal with BUFF vs. NYJ in week 1.

Boy, I tell ya, I would patronize ANY book that had the option of having 60 minutes decide the total and side outcomes. You know, you make a wager for 60 mins, and see them go down the drain like that. A wager you would have won had the underdog scored FEWER points in regulation.

And, the CIN game, they're going in for that TD before the half with a 13-6 lead. I'm looking at 20-6, 16-6 at WORSE and 10 seconds later its 14-13. But, that's what you get for betting on shitty teams with shitty QBs. I did get lucky with a half time bet in that one, though, when a pretty suspicious penalty allowed the bengals to take a second try at the FG.

Also on the GIANTs yesterday. 9 point lead with almost no time left. If the refs call that TD no catch NO WAY it gets overturned on replay. I'm still not sure it was a catch.

But, it was a good day, it just could have been awesome.

Might be posting more picks this week. I had more money on MINN than any other team but I was also on KC, NO (from Goldman), PHI and INDY yesterday. First good Sunday in a while and I'm right back to around even on the year between online and real-life action. I even had leans on KC and SEA but didn't play them.

Feeling good again and hope to start hitting.

Jets are up to 6.5. I don't know if we'll see 7. I think they're the trendy pick right now but that doesn't make them the wrong pick. Lots of early cash on the opening 7.5 apparently.