Thoughts on Public Money Trends

[Hersh24]

Hey fellas,

I don't too often post on here, but I always enjoy reading insights of some very talented cappers on the sight, for that I am eternally grateful to you guys.

I was looking at betting trends at a certain book on the % of public money on sides and was wondering if anybody had any hard evidence to back up my belief that when the public really hammers a number, and the line moves in the opposite direction or stays the same (IE 80% on Team A at -7 and the line drops to -6.5) how often Team B covers?

I have been looking at it some this season but I'm not sure if it's just the money at that book getting hit so hard or if there was an overall theme here.

This week on there I was looking and saw 83% of the money on Arizona at -3 OPEN, and currently still at -3.

Same goes for Philly with a -7 OPEN and 91% money on that side yet the line dropped to 6.5?

Just something I thought we might be able to discuss and think about for future ways to hammer our books.

As always, GL guys and enjoy being part of the MJ crew.

Cheers,
HERSH
:toast:

 

[MrChristo]

Personally, I think there's a lot in it. :toast:

Not sure about some of your numbers, but yeah, if I see >70% on a side/total, yet the line holds or moves the other way, I tend to get alarm bells.

I wasn't on it a couple of weeks back, but watched the game...was it somehow "obvious" to everyone that Seattle would score on the last drive to cover @ Tampa? kurby

(Not advocating "fix" one little bit. :nono: ...but funny how it goes sometimes. )

 

[bryanz]

what does your site say about nyg/dallas ? looks like the money is on the dog and the line is moving in the wrong direction ....

 

[Hersh24]

That's one game that I keep hearing public money is on the Cowboys but there it opened at NYG -7 and now is at NYG-8.5 but it says 60% is on NYG so that number made sense to me.

May have to go through several other books just to check what numbers they have, if you guys have any ideas of what books that would be welcome, hope MJ Admin would be ok with posting those?

 

[Hersh24]

Another one which should sound alarms as MrC might say, is the total in GB/Ten

Open at 42.5 with 89% public on the over total drops to now 41. :shrug: :bsflag

 

[bryanz]

That's one game that I keep hearing public money is on the Cowboys but there it opened at NYG -7 and now is at NYG-8.5 but it says 60% is on NYG so that number made sense to me.

May have to go through several other books just to check what numbers they have, if you guys have any ideas of what books that would be welcome, hope MJ Admin would be ok with posting those?

I think "public "money is a hard thing to determine...I use a site were people are posting plays for contest... I think it gives me a better angle of the public perception.... In my JUST ONE thread, going againt the money on this site has been one of the factors that has led to a 3-0 run.... looking to make it 4-0 with the GIANTS ! ...........What is the total # of bets in this gm ? thanks...

 

[Hersh24]

Not sure of that either, still working to crunch the numbers, I was gonna avoid that Dal/NYG game altogether but I wish you luck.

 

[MrChristo]

4:15 PM Dallas +9.5 1578 56.40% N.Y. Giants -9.5 1220 43.60%

Dallas 86 +7 N.Y. Giants 161 -7
(65% NYG)

...that's from a site I know Jack doesn't like...

So, no, not really worried about that game...seems pretty balanced between 7 and 9...

That same site has 59.6% (1024-694) on the GB/Tenn over. :shrug: [41]

The only one over 70% is on Phill @ -7, then -6.5... :SIB

 

[bryanz]

looks like the money loves atl/ok (U) on 3 sites I look at.....could be an over play ....

 

[el JB]

concerned

concerned

about Arizona -3:scared
got 1k on this and Minny as parlay:scared

NOT!!!:mj07:

 

[BadAngel]

Good stuff Hersh. You should post more often.

BA

 

[REDSKIN]

Hersh, I follow those reverse line moves pretty close. The system seems to be tailing off a little bit from how it started. I think it was 2 weeks ago when the Jets had 71% of the money vs Oaklands 29%. The line never moved from Oakland +3. It was a close game but Oakland got the su win. Last week we had the same situation with Buffalo/Miami. Buffalo had all the money but the line went the other way. Miami had a pretty easy day. It looks like the reverse moves for the week would be GB, NYG, OAK, SEA, and INDY. Of the 5, it looks like GB seems to be the strongest. Proceed with caution though, this system is still in the black this year but it went down hard yesterday. I need to add all of the guys from UL LAF to my Christmas card list.

 

[THUNDER]

NUMBER OF WAGERS NOT DOLLAR AMOUNTS IS WHAT IS POSTED ON THESE SITES-HEAVIES OR SHARPS PLAY BIG AND HIT DIFFERENT BOOKS USUALLY WITHIN HOURS IF EACH OTHER YOU MAY HAVE 80 PERCENT OF WAGERS COMING IN AT LETS SAY A MILLION DOLLARS BUT THE THE OTHER 20 PERCENT MAY BE 1.5 MILLION OR EVEN 1 MILLION BUT THE BOOKS KNOW WHERE THE SHARPS ARE COMING IN BECAUSE OF THE AMOUNTS-GL