ATL/NYM
Wheeler kept the Braves completely off balance yesterday and it might not get much better for them today. RHP Corey Oswalt takes the mound for the Mets and he doesn't give up many base runners, the problem is that when he does they seem to come in bunches. For a guy with .99 WHIP over his 6 starts it odd to see an ERA over 5??? The Braves are worse against RHP than LHP so he will have that going for him.
Julio Teheran goes for the Braves today and his WHIP has climbed in recent games, but is still decent at 1.37, the problem is this is against a lot of teams (Balt, SD, MIA,) that don't hit RHP well so even against teams he should do well against he's just average. The Mets don't hit RHP well so it's OK to expect Teheran to have a good outing here, right?
This one offers a total of 8.5 and I'm inclined to say it goes UNDER the number. Teheran will induce a lot of ground balls and Oswalt will throw a decent number of scoreless innings, let's just hope the inning ATL gets to him it isn't for a lot. -140 is just too much to lay on the Braves away from home against a RHP.
CWS/Tampa
No line on the game as of now, but the listed pitching matchup I see is Shields v Woods. Shields comes into the game, well, not good. His WHIP is still respectable, but considering his recent three losses were against two teams that don't hit RHP all that well and the one team he faced that does (LAA) lit him up for 6 runs in 4 innings. Tampa isn't stellar against RHP, but I don't think you need to be to knock this guy around the yard.
Hunter Wood is also not going to be confused with Cy Young anytime soon (or ever), his stats are dismal but he is facing a team in the bottom third against RHP. I don't think that will be enough to save him today.
Neither starter in this one is a guy you would back. Chicago is awful on the road and TB solid at home. Price pending, TB is the only option here. Let's see where the line ends up, I'm hoping to get this one around -160, maybe? It will probably be higher, though.
LAA/CLE
Deck McGuire hasn't shown anything in his handful of starts to make me believe he can shut down Cleveland who mashes RHP. He's been, ok, if just barely, but again, Cleveland is not a team to pick on with a RHP. Cleveland runs out Shane Bieber who is no gas can, but not a guy you'd turn to start a must win game. This isn't a must win game, and I still don't think I'd start him. Against teams who hit RHP well (like LAA) he's been getting knocked around more than my senior prom date by everyone (but me).
This one should soar past the total of 9.5 in a 7-5 type game, which team gets the 7 and which gets the 5 is anyone's guess.
CIN/WAS
Luis Castillo has steadily improved for the Reds, but it may be due to the competition he's faced. He's not faced a real good RHP team recently and my numbers have Washington as at least above average against RHP. Castillo has only faced one team in the top half of the league against RHP (Cubs) recently and gave up and gave up 3 runs in 4 innings. The Reds got him a ND that game so it masks his stat line a bit.
Washington starts RHP Tanner Roark who can give up runs. Against the Mets (awful against RHP) and Milwaukee (mid pack) he gave up only 1 run in 15 IP which is probably keeping the line low enough for us to play it today. Against teams in the top half of MLB against RHP he's given up, well, significantly more.
Another high total of 9.5, but one we can safely play the OVER. 8-5 type of game here with Washington likely the winner.
MIA/PHI
Not much to talk about here, it's just whether or not you can lay the price of -260. Philly has much the better pitcher going today and much the better offense. Philly is at home where they dominate and MIA (while not good at home either) isn't worth backing on a road game at any price here.
Throw Philly in the chalk parlay today and feel good about it.
STL/PIT
Fuck Clint Hurdle all the way to hell and back. This may be the stupidest guy to hold a job in MLB. If he ever has the nutsack to make a decision to pull a pitcher when it's obvious he doesn't have it not only will I be shocked, but this team might be a playoff contender. Fuck Clint Hurdle straight to hell and back (not bitter about the loss yesterday at all).
With that out of the way, Trevor Williams takes the mound for the Pirates today against a bottom third team hitting RHP. Williams has been just ok for the Pirates but seems to get them a win when they need it most. They need one today to keep nursing those dismal wildcard hopes the town has conjured up since trading for Chris Archer. He's beaten Washington and Cleveland recently giving up zero earned runs in 11 IP. I'll take that.
STL sends out Jack Flaherty to face a Pirates team the hits RHP in the top third of MLB. A good outing against the Cubs last time out, but against a couple mid pack RHP hitting teams he gave up 7 runs in 10 IP.
If Clint Hurdle gets sick and can't manage the game today I'm betting the Pirates with both hands at -110, with Hurdle on the bench it's just a normal size wager but either way I'm taking the Pirates here.
Fuck Clint Hurdle.
COL/MIL
I'm getting smashed in this series so tread with caution. Colorado sends out John Gray whom I trust to get the job done today. MIL is slightly better than mid pack against RHP but Gray shut down a solid RHP hitting team in Houston two starts ago allowing only one hit in seven IP. Seattle last time out (lower mid pack against RHP) didn't fare much better, they did get 5 hits, but only one run on 7.1 IP.
Wade Miley has improved recently (it would have been hard to get worse) and shutout the LAD twice in his last three starts over 13 IP. Don't let that fool you, the LAD are a bottom third team against LHP and Colorado isn't. I have COL as the second best team against LHP in MLB and this is a guy they should knock this guy around the park. -110 is more than fair.
Lay the wood to Colorado just like the football team did to my senior prom date.
KC/MIN
Danny Duffy goes for KC today and he's another guy who's recent "improvement" is based on the competition he's faced not being able to hit LHP, but good news for him, today he finds another team that struggle against LHP in MIN. I've got MIN near the bottom of the league against LHP with the likes of the Marlins and Mets, it's that bad.
MIN sends out Ervin Santana who is the king of the no decision. His two starts this year were ND's along with several to close out last year. Against CLE and TOR he's gotten lit up, MIN has just been able to outscore his pitching problems. KC just doesn't hit RHP well enough for me to pull the trigger here and with KC so bad on the road and MIN good at home this game is a pass all the way around.
I do like to bet games where I feel I'm getting the better pitcher and plus vig which is the case here today. Hard to do it, though. UNDER 9 looks appealing.
SD/Cubs
SD gives you hope here to back a dog given they hit LHP much better than RHP, though it would be difficult to be worse than dead ass last in the league like they are against RHP. They are facing Jon Lester today who ERA and WHIP has ballooned recently with a 6.06 ERA and 1.7 WHIP, but let's not let the stats fool us here, that was against solid LHP hitting teams in Ari, Pit, Cin. Jon Lester is still Jon Lester and shouldn't have trouble against this lineup at home.
SD runs Joey Lucchesi to the mound and I have the Cubs as a top 10 team against LHP. He's given up 4 runs in 9 IP against LAD and NYM, two awful LHP hitting teams.
-200 is a fair price when you get the better pitcher, better hitters and get them at home.
More in a bit.....
Wheeler kept the Braves completely off balance yesterday and it might not get much better for them today. RHP Corey Oswalt takes the mound for the Mets and he doesn't give up many base runners, the problem is that when he does they seem to come in bunches. For a guy with .99 WHIP over his 6 starts it odd to see an ERA over 5??? The Braves are worse against RHP than LHP so he will have that going for him.
Julio Teheran goes for the Braves today and his WHIP has climbed in recent games, but is still decent at 1.37, the problem is this is against a lot of teams (Balt, SD, MIA,) that don't hit RHP well so even against teams he should do well against he's just average. The Mets don't hit RHP well so it's OK to expect Teheran to have a good outing here, right?
This one offers a total of 8.5 and I'm inclined to say it goes UNDER the number. Teheran will induce a lot of ground balls and Oswalt will throw a decent number of scoreless innings, let's just hope the inning ATL gets to him it isn't for a lot. -140 is just too much to lay on the Braves away from home against a RHP.
CWS/Tampa
No line on the game as of now, but the listed pitching matchup I see is Shields v Woods. Shields comes into the game, well, not good. His WHIP is still respectable, but considering his recent three losses were against two teams that don't hit RHP all that well and the one team he faced that does (LAA) lit him up for 6 runs in 4 innings. Tampa isn't stellar against RHP, but I don't think you need to be to knock this guy around the yard.
Hunter Wood is also not going to be confused with Cy Young anytime soon (or ever), his stats are dismal but he is facing a team in the bottom third against RHP. I don't think that will be enough to save him today.
Neither starter in this one is a guy you would back. Chicago is awful on the road and TB solid at home. Price pending, TB is the only option here. Let's see where the line ends up, I'm hoping to get this one around -160, maybe? It will probably be higher, though.
LAA/CLE
Deck McGuire hasn't shown anything in his handful of starts to make me believe he can shut down Cleveland who mashes RHP. He's been, ok, if just barely, but again, Cleveland is not a team to pick on with a RHP. Cleveland runs out Shane Bieber who is no gas can, but not a guy you'd turn to start a must win game. This isn't a must win game, and I still don't think I'd start him. Against teams who hit RHP well (like LAA) he's been getting knocked around more than my senior prom date by everyone (but me).
This one should soar past the total of 9.5 in a 7-5 type game, which team gets the 7 and which gets the 5 is anyone's guess.
CIN/WAS
Luis Castillo has steadily improved for the Reds, but it may be due to the competition he's faced. He's not faced a real good RHP team recently and my numbers have Washington as at least above average against RHP. Castillo has only faced one team in the top half of the league against RHP (Cubs) recently and gave up and gave up 3 runs in 4 innings. The Reds got him a ND that game so it masks his stat line a bit.
Washington starts RHP Tanner Roark who can give up runs. Against the Mets (awful against RHP) and Milwaukee (mid pack) he gave up only 1 run in 15 IP which is probably keeping the line low enough for us to play it today. Against teams in the top half of MLB against RHP he's given up, well, significantly more.
Another high total of 9.5, but one we can safely play the OVER. 8-5 type of game here with Washington likely the winner.
MIA/PHI
Not much to talk about here, it's just whether or not you can lay the price of -260. Philly has much the better pitcher going today and much the better offense. Philly is at home where they dominate and MIA (while not good at home either) isn't worth backing on a road game at any price here.
Throw Philly in the chalk parlay today and feel good about it.
STL/PIT
Fuck Clint Hurdle all the way to hell and back. This may be the stupidest guy to hold a job in MLB. If he ever has the nutsack to make a decision to pull a pitcher when it's obvious he doesn't have it not only will I be shocked, but this team might be a playoff contender. Fuck Clint Hurdle straight to hell and back (not bitter about the loss yesterday at all).
With that out of the way, Trevor Williams takes the mound for the Pirates today against a bottom third team hitting RHP. Williams has been just ok for the Pirates but seems to get them a win when they need it most. They need one today to keep nursing those dismal wildcard hopes the town has conjured up since trading for Chris Archer. He's beaten Washington and Cleveland recently giving up zero earned runs in 11 IP. I'll take that.
STL sends out Jack Flaherty to face a Pirates team the hits RHP in the top third of MLB. A good outing against the Cubs last time out, but against a couple mid pack RHP hitting teams he gave up 7 runs in 10 IP.
If Clint Hurdle gets sick and can't manage the game today I'm betting the Pirates with both hands at -110, with Hurdle on the bench it's just a normal size wager but either way I'm taking the Pirates here.
Fuck Clint Hurdle.
COL/MIL
I'm getting smashed in this series so tread with caution. Colorado sends out John Gray whom I trust to get the job done today. MIL is slightly better than mid pack against RHP but Gray shut down a solid RHP hitting team in Houston two starts ago allowing only one hit in seven IP. Seattle last time out (lower mid pack against RHP) didn't fare much better, they did get 5 hits, but only one run on 7.1 IP.
Wade Miley has improved recently (it would have been hard to get worse) and shutout the LAD twice in his last three starts over 13 IP. Don't let that fool you, the LAD are a bottom third team against LHP and Colorado isn't. I have COL as the second best team against LHP in MLB and this is a guy they should knock this guy around the park. -110 is more than fair.
Lay the wood to Colorado just like the football team did to my senior prom date.
KC/MIN
Danny Duffy goes for KC today and he's another guy who's recent "improvement" is based on the competition he's faced not being able to hit LHP, but good news for him, today he finds another team that struggle against LHP in MIN. I've got MIN near the bottom of the league against LHP with the likes of the Marlins and Mets, it's that bad.
MIN sends out Ervin Santana who is the king of the no decision. His two starts this year were ND's along with several to close out last year. Against CLE and TOR he's gotten lit up, MIN has just been able to outscore his pitching problems. KC just doesn't hit RHP well enough for me to pull the trigger here and with KC so bad on the road and MIN good at home this game is a pass all the way around.
I do like to bet games where I feel I'm getting the better pitcher and plus vig which is the case here today. Hard to do it, though. UNDER 9 looks appealing.
SD/Cubs
SD gives you hope here to back a dog given they hit LHP much better than RHP, though it would be difficult to be worse than dead ass last in the league like they are against RHP. They are facing Jon Lester today who ERA and WHIP has ballooned recently with a 6.06 ERA and 1.7 WHIP, but let's not let the stats fool us here, that was against solid LHP hitting teams in Ari, Pit, Cin. Jon Lester is still Jon Lester and shouldn't have trouble against this lineup at home.
SD runs Joey Lucchesi to the mound and I have the Cubs as a top 10 team against LHP. He's given up 4 runs in 9 IP against LAD and NYM, two awful LHP hitting teams.
-200 is a fair price when you get the better pitcher, better hitters and get them at home.
More in a bit.....
