Thurs games

[gsp]

WLA went 4-4 yesterday. I go 2-1. Today, there are several game 4s which means the umps might be changed. Most of the time when they do that, the game still goes the way it was supposed to. Here are the ones I consider worth looking at today.

Fav
CC - 160
Cin - 110
Cle - 150

Totals
Pit o 7'
SD o 8'
SF o 9'
Cle u 9
Fla u 9'
Atl o 8'

I wish I was smart enough to know a "weak" play from a strong play. Yesterday, I dropped 3 "weak" plays from the WLA list. Ari, over in Tex and over in Tor were all winners. WLA should have been 7-4. Day before yesterday I went 11-1 counting the NBA. If you asked me my strongest play, it would have been the loser. That's the reason I play the same money on every play and will keep doing so until I develope a grading system that works. Back after a while with the real stuff.

 

[Innavation]

gsp--when i'm determining weak plays from strong plays---i check my list of handicapping tools----line movement--elements of science--such as wind--humidity---weather--tendecies some teams have.---etc... Most importantly remember Baseball is a mental game--and that is where the game is won..----The most determining factor i use for distinguishin weak plays from strong plays is feel---feel of where a team is at and how they are feeling---are they confident---what does their body language look like. FOr Ex.----Tampa Bay---a young team---guys competing for spots---have been shuffling guys around---well this may be team to play the next few weeks--i know if i was on a team and i seen a few non-established (talented players) getting sent down--It would bring my concentration level up--- Just a few thouhgts good Luck

 

[Innavation]

In short--What i mean is that yes it is easy to look at the card everyday and have opinions on each game----and some that you decide to stay away from will win and some will lose--but the important thing is do you trust your judgement.. Win or Lose know why you made your descision to play or not to play... and trust you did the right thing no matter the outcome.

 

[Nick Douglas]

I agree with you, Innavation. One of the things I know I struggle with at times is looking at past plays. You have to do it to learn but it is tough to trust that you make the right decision when you hit a stretch where it seems like a lot of close decisions go against you.

I also agree that the only way to judge large or small plays over the long haul is feel. I just think there are certain games where every handicapping factor I use may be in favor of a play but something feels off and it is best to play smaller. Other times the handicapping factors may only be so-so but there is a certain feel to a team's mental state that may make them a larger play. Generally I do play the same amount or roughly the same amount on each play but I am trying to get better at selecting smaller and bigger plays.

 

[gsp]

Thanks to Innavation and Nick for your replies. I am looking for a grading system that is consistant. I don't cap by feel and think I am pretty consistant getting winners. I hate to go 3-1 and break even or lose money. I'll come up with something solid and start using it. Until then I'll just hang in with what works for me.

If you have noticed, WLA is 2-0 for today. I started to post this on Ray's thread when I saw he was going with Pit this morning but the game had started and I didn't what to jinx my buddy. Here's a little of what you were up against in that game.

With Hollowell behind the plate all my signals came together on the over. Keep that in mind because it is importand to the rest of what I am going to say. The rest of the Hollowell stats look like this.

Going into today the fav was 10-0 last 10-. Now 11-0
Pit was 0-3 and now 0-4. Chi wasn't much better at 1-2.

Some other little tidbits were that Chi is hitting righties at 254 in their last 10 (some of them were pretty good) and facing Anderson with a 4 era. Anderson has been going 6 innings which should be plenty of time for Hollowell to get this game to go over. Woods is sporting a .73 whip. Now, knowing all of this and being pretty sure the game is going over who would you play? Still, the Cubs stinking bull-pen almost gave it away. The reaso for posting this is to give you a little insite into what is behind a WLA play.

 

[Nickster]

Pardon my ignorance...

Pardon my ignorance...

but what does WLA mean?

Thanks

 

[ron808]

Worth Looking At

 

[gsp]

Going with

Cin - 105
Cle - 160
u 9
Fla u 9'
Atl o 8'

Good luck everyone