07:10 PM [954] TOTAL u8.5 +105 (WAS NATIONALS vrs NY METS) ( L GIOLITO -R / B COLON -R )
08:40 PM [955] TOTAL o12.5 -115 (PHI PHILLIES vrs COL ROCKIES) ( A MORGAN -L / C BETTIS -R )
10:10 PM [958] TOTAL u7-115 (SDG PADRES vrs LA DODGERS) ( D POMERANZ -L / H RYU -L )
07:10 PM [964] CLE INDIANS -145 ( ACTION )
08:05 PM [965] TOTAL o11-104 (MIN TWINS vrs TEX RANGERS) ( T DUFFEY -R / C GONZALES -R )
08:05 PM [971] ATL BRAVES +220 ( ACTION )
1 unit bet pays 75 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 10-100, -22.24 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
:0074
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Over is 19-7 in MIN last 26 games following a win.
Over is 44-17-3 in MIN last 64 overall.
Justin Verlander has been an asset at times this season, but Thursday is a time when I'm steering clear..A trip to Toronto to face the Blue Jays is one of the toughest spots in the game. Not only does the Rogers Centre inflate homers for both right- and left-handed batters, but the Jays mash there, putting up a .339 wOBA this season. They also do plenty of damage against right-handed pitching (.331 wOBA).
Harrell received an unexpected promotion on Saturday and delivered six strong innings against the Marlins. The veteran, who hadn?t pitched in the Majors since 2014, has recently gained more confidence in his cutter.
Lucas Harrell is a 31-year-old former 4th round pick from the 2004 draft who debuted in 2010. In 407.2 career major league innings, he has posted a 4.79 career ERA. To summarize his career in a few words: He issues a lot of walks.
Harrell hasn't pitched much in the majors since 2013, when he led the league in walks (88) despite pitching just 153.2 innings. In 2014 he started 3 games (14 R in 12.1 IP), and he did not pitch at any level last year. He has started once this year, against Miami, and actually pitched OK, walking just one batter.
Harrell actually has decent velocity, throwing a four-seam and sinker around 93 mph. He also throws a cutter (88), a curve, and a change, but far and away uses the hard stuff more often. Can you name a Cubs pitcher with a similar repertoire...? If you said Jon Lester, you're right! But we all know that Lester's stuff plays up due to his elite command, whereas I just told you Harrell walks many dudes.
It would behoove the Cubs to be patient with Harrell, and let him beat himself, even if he does get ahead in some counts.
---------
Say what you want about Bartolo Colon..But the guy just keeps getting it done. Although he still doesn't miss many bats (6.0 K/9), his control continues to be outstanding (1.6 BB/9). A home tilt against the Nationals, who are below average against righty pitching...
Lucas Giolito had his first big league start shortened by rain, but he tossed four scoreless innings of one-hit ball against the Mets before he left. He gets another crack at the Mets, and this time the weather forecast looks much more promising. One of baseball's top pitching prospects, Giolito whiffed just one batter in his first outing, but he showcased plenty of K potential in the minors and matches up well with a Mets team that's fanning 23 percent of the time.
With a 3.66 ERA this season, Fister could be a solid second starter when he works at home against an A's lineup that ranks 28th in the Majors with a .693 OPS against righties....Doug Fister is not what you'd call exciting. He whiffs less than six batters per nine, after all. He has, however, allowed more than three earned runs just twice in his last 14 starts, giving him a solid floor. And his home matchup against the A's is prime. The A's have been the worst team in the AL against righties this season, sporting an 85 wRC+. .... [let's hope the command problems he's had in last few games have been figured out]
Rich Hill is another lefty who finds himself in a promising spot, particularly in terms of strikeout potential. The Astros whiff at a 24 percent clip against southpaws, and Hill does a fine job making batters miss, as his 10.3 K/9 would rank top-three in AL if he qualified. And despite featuring a lineup that contains plenty of right-handed power, the Astros have been well below average against lefty pitching in 2016.
Since the beginning of June, spanning seven outings, Trevor Bauer owns a 1.81 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. He'll look to continue that stretch of dominance against the Yankees, who have not fared well against righty pitching this season (88 wRC+). Bauer's K upside is a bit limited in this one considering the Yanks make so much contact, but he's showcased a nice floor this year. Only once in 12 starts has he allowed more than three runs.
The day's only elite option is Drew Pomeranz, who earns a 61 Game Score with a road matchup against the Dodgers. The left-hander has been terrific this season, even away from Petco Park (2.66 ERA), and he's set up very well against a Dodgers team that's been dreadful against southpaws this season (79 wRC+). The Dodgers are middle-of-the-road in terms of whiffs, but Pomeranz combats that with a 10.3 K/9 that ranks top-10 in baseball. He's also shown a nice floor, fanning six or more in seven straight starts.
The Under is 10-2 in Pomeranz?s last 12 starts overall
The Under is 16-5 in Dodgers last 21 home games vs. a team with a losing road record
Ryu will pitch from an MLB mound for the first time since the 2014 playoffs, a span of 640 days. The Korean southpaw had shoulder surgery on May 21, 2015. In his final rehab outing, Friday for Rancho Cucamonga, Ryu allowed two runs on five hits in six innings and struck out three while issuing no walks. He threw 84 pitches and averaged 86 mph on his fastball, which reached 90 mph.
"What I have accomplished as far as my rehab goals, gaining all my pitches in quite a few outings, I think I'm pretty much ready to go," Ryu said
Atlanta vs. Chicago
Play: Atlanta +248
It's not often you can get better than 2-to-1 odds fading a team that is 5-12 in their last 17 games and has lost the last five times with their scheduled starting pitcher while backing a pitcher who has a career 0.57 ERA versus that team.
But that's the case with the Braves against the Cubs and 33-year-old Jason Hammel, who surrendered 10 runs and five homers in four plus innings during his last start this past Friday.
Hammel is 2-5 career-wise versus the Braves in 10 starts with a 5.77 ERA. Hammel is the weakest of the Cubs' five main starting pitchers.
Of course the reason for such a high price is Atlanta, the worst team in the majors. The Braves aren't playing well either having lost four in a row, including just having gotten swept three games on the road by the Phillies.
The Braves have scored the fewest runs, own the lowest batting average and also rank last in homers. They are pitching unheralded Lucas Harrell.
Hence, the big lay price on the Cubs. Harrell will be making his second start for the Braves. His first outing was highly successful - a 9-1 win over the Marlins and Jose Fernandez this past Saturday at home. Harrell allowed just one run on three hits in six innings with one walk and five strikeouts. That was his first big-league start in two years.
Harrell has experience pitching at Wrigley Field when he pitched for the Astros. He's made two starts there and holds an 0.57 ERA and a 2-0 record in four appearances versus the Cubs.
The Cubs sure can't be too excited about this game. It was supposed to be a day off for the Cubs today, but this is a makeup game. The Cubs have a bigger series looming Friday-Sunday when they play the Pirates in Pittsburgh.
This also marks the Cubs' 21st straight day of playing. Chicago is 1-6 in its last seven games so fatigue may be taking a toll so close to next week's All-Star break.
I know the Braves are a tough sell even at a nice value price like this. But I sure wouldn't be laying this kind of price on the Cubs right now, especially in this game.
San Diego +123 over LOS ANGELES
Lots of moving parts here. First there is Drew Pomeranz and his 2.65 ERA to go along with 109 strikeouts in 95 innings. Pomeranz has struggled with his control for most of the season (39 walks), which has caused him to have bouts of ineffectiveness. A closer look tells us that all of his control problems are happening when he pitches from a full windup (5.8 BB?s/9). His control rebounds and his skills become dominant with guys on base: 10.2 K?s/9, 2.9 BB?s/9, 50% groundballs. There are worse things. He's someone whose overall control could improve with a mechanical adjustment or why not just remove the full windup from his arsenal? It?s probably because unless the Padres are reading this, they have no idea. In any event, Pomeranz has been elite this season.
Then there?s Hyun-Jin Ryu. There are plenty of questions that remain about Ryu?s ability to hold up after missing almost two seasons of MLB action, particularly given reports that his velocity is hovering in the mid/high 80?s. But he tossed six innings of two-run ball ? his longest rehab outing yet ? at High-A Rancho Cucamonga over the weekend, and has apparently emerged healthy. We?ll give him a marginal chance for success. If Ryu can come anywhere close to the effort from Brandon McCarthy over this past weekend, the Dodgers may not have to revert back to inexperienced names such as Ross Stripling and Brock Stewart but that?s a big if. To be continued......for now, Ryu cannot be favored over Pomeranz because the former is way more likely to get crushed.
Seattle at Kansas City
Play: Seattle +125
The Mariners James Paxton may not have impressive stats this season but he?s only given up 3 homers in his 40+ innings of work on the season and he has been registering nearly 100 mph with his fastball. The Royals will face some high heat in this one and they have lost four consecutive games as well as 10 of their last 15. Kansas City has been a very streaky team this season and we expect that to continue tonight. The Royals are 4-9 this season when they on a streak of 3 or more consecutive losses. The wind will be blowing out at Kauffman Stadium this evening so this game could come down to who does a better job of keeping the ball in the yard. The Royals will have Danny Duffy toeing the rubber this evening and he has allowed 7 homers in his 5 home starts this season. While Paxton is giving up only about 1 homer every FOURTEEN innings this season, Duffy is allowing about 1 homer every FOUR innings in his home starts. The Mariners will be looking to erase the bitter taste of a 3-game sweep at Houston and we feel strongly that they will do just that as they had won 7 of their 9 games prior to the series with the Astros. We?ll take the value with the road dog Mariners on the money line Thursday evening.
Kansas City Royals -134
The Kansas City Royals come into this series with the Seattle Mariners highly motivated for a victory. They have lost five of their last six coming in. They want to go into the All-Star Break on a positive note. The Royals are a sensational 27-11 at home this season.
Danny Duffy is one of the most underrated starters in the big leagues. He has gone 4-1 with a 3.14 ERA and 0.994 WHIP over 10 starts with 66 K's in 57 1/3 innings. Duffy has posted a 1.88 ERA in three career starts against Seattle, giving up just three earned runs in 14 1/3 innings.
James Paxton has taken the place of the injured Felix Hernandez in Seattle's rotation. It hasn't gone very well as Paxton is 2-3 with a 4.24 ERA and 1.710 WHIP in seven starts. He has been at his worst on the road, going 1-2 with a 5.19 ERA and 1.961 WHIP in three starts away from home.
Duffy is 17-4 (+11.5 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -110 or higher over the last three seasons. The Royals are 37-14 in their last 51 home games overall. The Mariners are 2-14 in their last 16 home games.
Biggest OVER run: Padres (4-0, last four, 7-1 last eight)
The Diamondbacks have seen the 'over' prevail in their last seven games, but they're off tonight. That bumps up the mighty Padres, who picked up a 13-6 win at Arizona to score a third series victory in four chances. Since June 15, the 'over' has gone 15-4 in games involving San Diego, with factors including inexperienced starters, a slumping bullpen and the sizzling bat of All-Star Wil Myers. Teammates Yangervis Solarte and rookie Ryan Schimpf has gotten into the act, with the latter hitting two home runs in Phoenix to increase his total to four, all coming this month. Ace Drew Pomeranz (7-7, 2.65) may keep this total down since he's allowed just one run in his last 14 innings and held the Dodgers to a single run on three hits over seven frames last time he pitched in L.A. (May 1) The Dodgers are sending Korean righty Hyun-Jin Ryu to the mound for his first start since Game 3 of the 2014 NLDS. Ryu has been out with shoulder trouble since, but has looked promising in rehab, last allowing two runs over six innings at Class-A Rancho Cucamonga. He hit 90 on the radar gun. Ryu is 28-15 with a 3.17 ERA over 56 major-league regular-season starts.
Derrick Lewis +120 over Roy Nelson
The #10 and #12 ranked heavyweights meet up in the co-main event on the July 7th Fight Night card. The 40-year Nelson comes into this fight fresh off of a win over Jared Rosholt in February, while the 31-year-old Lewis enters off an impressive three-fight win streak with the most recent being a win over Gabriel Gonzaga in April. Nelson comes in as a slight favourite over Lewis while the over/under total rounds is heavily favouring under 1? rounds (-185). That heavy vigor on the under strongly suggests this isn't going the distance.
Derrick Lewis (#12) is turning into a knockout king in the heavyweight division by finishing two of his last three opponents off in the first round via KO and the other by 3rd round KO. Lewis has a career record of 15-4 with 14 KO's, and is 6-2 in the UFC with all eight of those fights ending in a knockout. Lewis is 6' 3" with a 79" reach, and weighs in at around 260 lbs. This stature makes him one of the most lethal heavyweights in the division, as he is able to stay at a distance and unload with power. Relatively young for the division, Lewis hasn't taken the damage that most other fighters have. He also has a strong chin that hasn't been rattled too often in his two UFC losses.
Nelson (#10) comes into this fight after winning a three-round decision over Rosholt in an extremely boring fight where both men danced in circles and threw jabs for 15 minutes with Nelson apparently getting the better of Rosholt. This style may have been Rosholt's doing, as he appeared to be the tentative one, not wanting to engage with Nelson in the pocket. However, maybe he should have been willing to take a few chances. Looking at Nelson's recent stretch shows an overall record of 2-7, with the two wins coming against Rosholt and Mintaro Nogueria. The win against Big Nog, was the last time Nelson was able to knock someone out and that happened over two years ago. That fight featured Nogueria on the fringe of retirement, due to injuries and a notorious glass jaw. Nogueria's last win came in 2012 vs. David Herman. This is the type of opponent that Nelson has been able to beat recently. Before this, Nelson's most recent knockout came vs. the now retired Chieck Kongo in 2013. Nelson is now a FORMER knockout artist. He is very slow, and undersized in this matchup. While equalling Lewis in weight, Nelson gives up three inches of height and a significant six inches in reach and it appears that the KO power that made Nelson so effective over three years ago has disappeared.
Lewis is the bigger, faster, more powerful, and more durable fighter here. Nelson is currently favoured because of the resume of opponents he has faced, taking on the UFC's best heavyweights for the past seven years. While accumulating victories over top talent in 2007-2013, his form as of late has been depressing, as it is clear that one of the most beloved characters in the UFC is nearing the end of his very entertaining career. In the past few years, Nelson has ran up a UFC record of 2-7, while Lewis has been climbing the ladder going 6-2 in the same time frame. While the group of opponents that Lewis has beaten does not compare to Nelson's, he can only beat who he is matched up against, and its clear that he is on the rise as a young heavyweight that may be on the verge of entering title contention as early as next year.
Following Derrick Lewis' viscous KO of Gonzaga in April, he demanded this matchup with Nelson. This is a very intelligent move for Lewis, as he sees the current state of Nelson, and can use a victory over a big named legend to vault himself into the top 10 and assert himself into title contention. He is showing the confidence, intelligence and current form to take Nelson out. He also has the physical advantage on most levels, making this price a great buy. When considering that the oddsmakers are expecting an early knockout, it is far more likely that Lewis accomplishes this than Nelson. This line will be moving towards even, and it wouldn't surprise us to see it flip completely before July 7. It is for that reason, we are posting it so early.
TORONTO AT BC
PLAY: BC -6
I played this game on Tuesday, and got a better number than this, but I still feel pretty good about the prospects of the Lions getting the win and cover at home.
There?s no value to be had here. BC was a dog in each of its first two games, and now they?re suddenly spotting nearly a touchdown. But the Lions have looked good out of the gate, and they should have loads of momentum heading into this battle.
I?m not impressed with what I?ve seen from the visiting Argonauts. Toronto managed to split its first two outings, but there has been plenty to find fault with. They definitely benefited from an early case of the jitters by Saskatchewan last week. The Roughriders were the team with the opening week bye, and let?s just say they were pretty bad at the start of their season debut against a team that already had a game under their belts.
I like the scheduling dynamics here. You?d think there would be a way to avoid this in a nine-ten league, but this is the second straight long trip west for Toronto, and that could definitely be aa disadvantage for the Argonauts.
Toronto made a deal this week to bolster their pass rush, and I expect them to put some pressure on BC QB Jonathan Jennings. I?ll admit I?ve got some concerns about the home team?s ability to get TD?s in this game, but Jennings has avoided mistakes in the early going. If he avoids turnovers tonight, he should be okay.
On the flip side, the Lions are looking good on defense. They?ll need to be sharp here as old pro Ricky Ray is off to a pretty efficient start and has already launched four touchdown passes.
I see this as a fairly even matchup on paper. But there?s no question the Lions are off to the better start and back to back long trips west for Toronto are a key factor for me. The number on this game is getting a bit on the high side, but I decided to go ahead and fire on BC minus the points.
08:40 PM [955] TOTAL o12.5 -115 (PHI PHILLIES vrs COL ROCKIES) ( A MORGAN -L / C BETTIS -R )
10:10 PM [958] TOTAL u7-115 (SDG PADRES vrs LA DODGERS) ( D POMERANZ -L / H RYU -L )
07:10 PM [964] CLE INDIANS -145 ( ACTION )
08:05 PM [965] TOTAL o11-104 (MIN TWINS vrs TEX RANGERS) ( T DUFFEY -R / C GONZALES -R )
08:05 PM [971] ATL BRAVES +220 ( ACTION )
1 unit bet pays 75 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 10-100, -22.24 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Over is 19-7 in MIN last 26 games following a win.
Over is 44-17-3 in MIN last 64 overall.
Justin Verlander has been an asset at times this season, but Thursday is a time when I'm steering clear..A trip to Toronto to face the Blue Jays is one of the toughest spots in the game. Not only does the Rogers Centre inflate homers for both right- and left-handed batters, but the Jays mash there, putting up a .339 wOBA this season. They also do plenty of damage against right-handed pitching (.331 wOBA).
Harrell received an unexpected promotion on Saturday and delivered six strong innings against the Marlins. The veteran, who hadn?t pitched in the Majors since 2014, has recently gained more confidence in his cutter.
Lucas Harrell is a 31-year-old former 4th round pick from the 2004 draft who debuted in 2010. In 407.2 career major league innings, he has posted a 4.79 career ERA. To summarize his career in a few words: He issues a lot of walks.
Harrell hasn't pitched much in the majors since 2013, when he led the league in walks (88) despite pitching just 153.2 innings. In 2014 he started 3 games (14 R in 12.1 IP), and he did not pitch at any level last year. He has started once this year, against Miami, and actually pitched OK, walking just one batter.
Harrell actually has decent velocity, throwing a four-seam and sinker around 93 mph. He also throws a cutter (88), a curve, and a change, but far and away uses the hard stuff more often. Can you name a Cubs pitcher with a similar repertoire...? If you said Jon Lester, you're right! But we all know that Lester's stuff plays up due to his elite command, whereas I just told you Harrell walks many dudes.
It would behoove the Cubs to be patient with Harrell, and let him beat himself, even if he does get ahead in some counts.
---------
Say what you want about Bartolo Colon..But the guy just keeps getting it done. Although he still doesn't miss many bats (6.0 K/9), his control continues to be outstanding (1.6 BB/9). A home tilt against the Nationals, who are below average against righty pitching...
Lucas Giolito had his first big league start shortened by rain, but he tossed four scoreless innings of one-hit ball against the Mets before he left. He gets another crack at the Mets, and this time the weather forecast looks much more promising. One of baseball's top pitching prospects, Giolito whiffed just one batter in his first outing, but he showcased plenty of K potential in the minors and matches up well with a Mets team that's fanning 23 percent of the time.
With a 3.66 ERA this season, Fister could be a solid second starter when he works at home against an A's lineup that ranks 28th in the Majors with a .693 OPS against righties....Doug Fister is not what you'd call exciting. He whiffs less than six batters per nine, after all. He has, however, allowed more than three earned runs just twice in his last 14 starts, giving him a solid floor. And his home matchup against the A's is prime. The A's have been the worst team in the AL against righties this season, sporting an 85 wRC+. .... [let's hope the command problems he's had in last few games have been figured out]
Rich Hill is another lefty who finds himself in a promising spot, particularly in terms of strikeout potential. The Astros whiff at a 24 percent clip against southpaws, and Hill does a fine job making batters miss, as his 10.3 K/9 would rank top-three in AL if he qualified. And despite featuring a lineup that contains plenty of right-handed power, the Astros have been well below average against lefty pitching in 2016.
Since the beginning of June, spanning seven outings, Trevor Bauer owns a 1.81 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. He'll look to continue that stretch of dominance against the Yankees, who have not fared well against righty pitching this season (88 wRC+). Bauer's K upside is a bit limited in this one considering the Yanks make so much contact, but he's showcased a nice floor this year. Only once in 12 starts has he allowed more than three runs.
The day's only elite option is Drew Pomeranz, who earns a 61 Game Score with a road matchup against the Dodgers. The left-hander has been terrific this season, even away from Petco Park (2.66 ERA), and he's set up very well against a Dodgers team that's been dreadful against southpaws this season (79 wRC+). The Dodgers are middle-of-the-road in terms of whiffs, but Pomeranz combats that with a 10.3 K/9 that ranks top-10 in baseball. He's also shown a nice floor, fanning six or more in seven straight starts.
The Under is 10-2 in Pomeranz?s last 12 starts overall
The Under is 16-5 in Dodgers last 21 home games vs. a team with a losing road record
Ryu will pitch from an MLB mound for the first time since the 2014 playoffs, a span of 640 days. The Korean southpaw had shoulder surgery on May 21, 2015. In his final rehab outing, Friday for Rancho Cucamonga, Ryu allowed two runs on five hits in six innings and struck out three while issuing no walks. He threw 84 pitches and averaged 86 mph on his fastball, which reached 90 mph.
"What I have accomplished as far as my rehab goals, gaining all my pitches in quite a few outings, I think I'm pretty much ready to go," Ryu said
Atlanta vs. Chicago
Play: Atlanta +248
It's not often you can get better than 2-to-1 odds fading a team that is 5-12 in their last 17 games and has lost the last five times with their scheduled starting pitcher while backing a pitcher who has a career 0.57 ERA versus that team.
But that's the case with the Braves against the Cubs and 33-year-old Jason Hammel, who surrendered 10 runs and five homers in four plus innings during his last start this past Friday.
Hammel is 2-5 career-wise versus the Braves in 10 starts with a 5.77 ERA. Hammel is the weakest of the Cubs' five main starting pitchers.
Of course the reason for such a high price is Atlanta, the worst team in the majors. The Braves aren't playing well either having lost four in a row, including just having gotten swept three games on the road by the Phillies.
The Braves have scored the fewest runs, own the lowest batting average and also rank last in homers. They are pitching unheralded Lucas Harrell.
Hence, the big lay price on the Cubs. Harrell will be making his second start for the Braves. His first outing was highly successful - a 9-1 win over the Marlins and Jose Fernandez this past Saturday at home. Harrell allowed just one run on three hits in six innings with one walk and five strikeouts. That was his first big-league start in two years.
Harrell has experience pitching at Wrigley Field when he pitched for the Astros. He's made two starts there and holds an 0.57 ERA and a 2-0 record in four appearances versus the Cubs.
The Cubs sure can't be too excited about this game. It was supposed to be a day off for the Cubs today, but this is a makeup game. The Cubs have a bigger series looming Friday-Sunday when they play the Pirates in Pittsburgh.
This also marks the Cubs' 21st straight day of playing. Chicago is 1-6 in its last seven games so fatigue may be taking a toll so close to next week's All-Star break.
I know the Braves are a tough sell even at a nice value price like this. But I sure wouldn't be laying this kind of price on the Cubs right now, especially in this game.
San Diego +123 over LOS ANGELES
Lots of moving parts here. First there is Drew Pomeranz and his 2.65 ERA to go along with 109 strikeouts in 95 innings. Pomeranz has struggled with his control for most of the season (39 walks), which has caused him to have bouts of ineffectiveness. A closer look tells us that all of his control problems are happening when he pitches from a full windup (5.8 BB?s/9). His control rebounds and his skills become dominant with guys on base: 10.2 K?s/9, 2.9 BB?s/9, 50% groundballs. There are worse things. He's someone whose overall control could improve with a mechanical adjustment or why not just remove the full windup from his arsenal? It?s probably because unless the Padres are reading this, they have no idea. In any event, Pomeranz has been elite this season.
Then there?s Hyun-Jin Ryu. There are plenty of questions that remain about Ryu?s ability to hold up after missing almost two seasons of MLB action, particularly given reports that his velocity is hovering in the mid/high 80?s. But he tossed six innings of two-run ball ? his longest rehab outing yet ? at High-A Rancho Cucamonga over the weekend, and has apparently emerged healthy. We?ll give him a marginal chance for success. If Ryu can come anywhere close to the effort from Brandon McCarthy over this past weekend, the Dodgers may not have to revert back to inexperienced names such as Ross Stripling and Brock Stewart but that?s a big if. To be continued......for now, Ryu cannot be favored over Pomeranz because the former is way more likely to get crushed.
Seattle at Kansas City
Play: Seattle +125
The Mariners James Paxton may not have impressive stats this season but he?s only given up 3 homers in his 40+ innings of work on the season and he has been registering nearly 100 mph with his fastball. The Royals will face some high heat in this one and they have lost four consecutive games as well as 10 of their last 15. Kansas City has been a very streaky team this season and we expect that to continue tonight. The Royals are 4-9 this season when they on a streak of 3 or more consecutive losses. The wind will be blowing out at Kauffman Stadium this evening so this game could come down to who does a better job of keeping the ball in the yard. The Royals will have Danny Duffy toeing the rubber this evening and he has allowed 7 homers in his 5 home starts this season. While Paxton is giving up only about 1 homer every FOURTEEN innings this season, Duffy is allowing about 1 homer every FOUR innings in his home starts. The Mariners will be looking to erase the bitter taste of a 3-game sweep at Houston and we feel strongly that they will do just that as they had won 7 of their 9 games prior to the series with the Astros. We?ll take the value with the road dog Mariners on the money line Thursday evening.
Kansas City Royals -134
The Kansas City Royals come into this series with the Seattle Mariners highly motivated for a victory. They have lost five of their last six coming in. They want to go into the All-Star Break on a positive note. The Royals are a sensational 27-11 at home this season.
Danny Duffy is one of the most underrated starters in the big leagues. He has gone 4-1 with a 3.14 ERA and 0.994 WHIP over 10 starts with 66 K's in 57 1/3 innings. Duffy has posted a 1.88 ERA in three career starts against Seattle, giving up just three earned runs in 14 1/3 innings.
James Paxton has taken the place of the injured Felix Hernandez in Seattle's rotation. It hasn't gone very well as Paxton is 2-3 with a 4.24 ERA and 1.710 WHIP in seven starts. He has been at his worst on the road, going 1-2 with a 5.19 ERA and 1.961 WHIP in three starts away from home.
Duffy is 17-4 (+11.5 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -110 or higher over the last three seasons. The Royals are 37-14 in their last 51 home games overall. The Mariners are 2-14 in their last 16 home games.
Biggest OVER run: Padres (4-0, last four, 7-1 last eight)
The Diamondbacks have seen the 'over' prevail in their last seven games, but they're off tonight. That bumps up the mighty Padres, who picked up a 13-6 win at Arizona to score a third series victory in four chances. Since June 15, the 'over' has gone 15-4 in games involving San Diego, with factors including inexperienced starters, a slumping bullpen and the sizzling bat of All-Star Wil Myers. Teammates Yangervis Solarte and rookie Ryan Schimpf has gotten into the act, with the latter hitting two home runs in Phoenix to increase his total to four, all coming this month. Ace Drew Pomeranz (7-7, 2.65) may keep this total down since he's allowed just one run in his last 14 innings and held the Dodgers to a single run on three hits over seven frames last time he pitched in L.A. (May 1) The Dodgers are sending Korean righty Hyun-Jin Ryu to the mound for his first start since Game 3 of the 2014 NLDS. Ryu has been out with shoulder trouble since, but has looked promising in rehab, last allowing two runs over six innings at Class-A Rancho Cucamonga. He hit 90 on the radar gun. Ryu is 28-15 with a 3.17 ERA over 56 major-league regular-season starts.
Derrick Lewis +120 over Roy Nelson
The #10 and #12 ranked heavyweights meet up in the co-main event on the July 7th Fight Night card. The 40-year Nelson comes into this fight fresh off of a win over Jared Rosholt in February, while the 31-year-old Lewis enters off an impressive three-fight win streak with the most recent being a win over Gabriel Gonzaga in April. Nelson comes in as a slight favourite over Lewis while the over/under total rounds is heavily favouring under 1? rounds (-185). That heavy vigor on the under strongly suggests this isn't going the distance.
Derrick Lewis (#12) is turning into a knockout king in the heavyweight division by finishing two of his last three opponents off in the first round via KO and the other by 3rd round KO. Lewis has a career record of 15-4 with 14 KO's, and is 6-2 in the UFC with all eight of those fights ending in a knockout. Lewis is 6' 3" with a 79" reach, and weighs in at around 260 lbs. This stature makes him one of the most lethal heavyweights in the division, as he is able to stay at a distance and unload with power. Relatively young for the division, Lewis hasn't taken the damage that most other fighters have. He also has a strong chin that hasn't been rattled too often in his two UFC losses.
Nelson (#10) comes into this fight after winning a three-round decision over Rosholt in an extremely boring fight where both men danced in circles and threw jabs for 15 minutes with Nelson apparently getting the better of Rosholt. This style may have been Rosholt's doing, as he appeared to be the tentative one, not wanting to engage with Nelson in the pocket. However, maybe he should have been willing to take a few chances. Looking at Nelson's recent stretch shows an overall record of 2-7, with the two wins coming against Rosholt and Mintaro Nogueria. The win against Big Nog, was the last time Nelson was able to knock someone out and that happened over two years ago. That fight featured Nogueria on the fringe of retirement, due to injuries and a notorious glass jaw. Nogueria's last win came in 2012 vs. David Herman. This is the type of opponent that Nelson has been able to beat recently. Before this, Nelson's most recent knockout came vs. the now retired Chieck Kongo in 2013. Nelson is now a FORMER knockout artist. He is very slow, and undersized in this matchup. While equalling Lewis in weight, Nelson gives up three inches of height and a significant six inches in reach and it appears that the KO power that made Nelson so effective over three years ago has disappeared.
Lewis is the bigger, faster, more powerful, and more durable fighter here. Nelson is currently favoured because of the resume of opponents he has faced, taking on the UFC's best heavyweights for the past seven years. While accumulating victories over top talent in 2007-2013, his form as of late has been depressing, as it is clear that one of the most beloved characters in the UFC is nearing the end of his very entertaining career. In the past few years, Nelson has ran up a UFC record of 2-7, while Lewis has been climbing the ladder going 6-2 in the same time frame. While the group of opponents that Lewis has beaten does not compare to Nelson's, he can only beat who he is matched up against, and its clear that he is on the rise as a young heavyweight that may be on the verge of entering title contention as early as next year.
Following Derrick Lewis' viscous KO of Gonzaga in April, he demanded this matchup with Nelson. This is a very intelligent move for Lewis, as he sees the current state of Nelson, and can use a victory over a big named legend to vault himself into the top 10 and assert himself into title contention. He is showing the confidence, intelligence and current form to take Nelson out. He also has the physical advantage on most levels, making this price a great buy. When considering that the oddsmakers are expecting an early knockout, it is far more likely that Lewis accomplishes this than Nelson. This line will be moving towards even, and it wouldn't surprise us to see it flip completely before July 7. It is for that reason, we are posting it so early.
TORONTO AT BC
PLAY: BC -6
I played this game on Tuesday, and got a better number than this, but I still feel pretty good about the prospects of the Lions getting the win and cover at home.
There?s no value to be had here. BC was a dog in each of its first two games, and now they?re suddenly spotting nearly a touchdown. But the Lions have looked good out of the gate, and they should have loads of momentum heading into this battle.
I?m not impressed with what I?ve seen from the visiting Argonauts. Toronto managed to split its first two outings, but there has been plenty to find fault with. They definitely benefited from an early case of the jitters by Saskatchewan last week. The Roughriders were the team with the opening week bye, and let?s just say they were pretty bad at the start of their season debut against a team that already had a game under their belts.
I like the scheduling dynamics here. You?d think there would be a way to avoid this in a nine-ten league, but this is the second straight long trip west for Toronto, and that could definitely be aa disadvantage for the Argonauts.
Toronto made a deal this week to bolster their pass rush, and I expect them to put some pressure on BC QB Jonathan Jennings. I?ll admit I?ve got some concerns about the home team?s ability to get TD?s in this game, but Jennings has avoided mistakes in the early going. If he avoids turnovers tonight, he should be okay.
On the flip side, the Lions are looking good on defense. They?ll need to be sharp here as old pro Ricky Ray is off to a pretty efficient start and has already launched four touchdown passes.
I see this as a fairly even matchup on paper. But there?s no question the Lions are off to the better start and back to back long trips west for Toronto are a key factor for me. The number on this game is getting a bit on the high side, but I decided to go ahead and fire on BC minus the points.
