12:35 PM MLB [904] PIT PIRATES -1.5 -105 ( C FRIEDRICH -L / J TAILLON -R )
2:10 PM MLB [905] TOTAL o9.5 -110 (ATL BRAVES vrs MIL BREWERS) ( R HERNANDEZ -R / M GARZA -R )
8:05 PM MLB [908] CHI CUBS -156 ( C MARTINEZ -R / J LESTER -L )
3:35 PM MLB [911] BAL ORIOLES -143 ( C TILLMAN -R / A TRIGGS -R )
7:10 PM MLB [916] CLE INDIANS -1.5 -115 ( J CHACIN -R / C KLUBER -R )
8:15 PM MLB [918] KC ROYALS -160 ( M GONZALEZ -R / D DUFFY -L )
12:10 PM MLB [1902] TOTAL u4-120 (1H ARI DBACKS vrs 1H NY METS) ( B SHIPLEY -R / N SYNDERGAARD -R )
7:30 PM NFL [257] CAR PANTHERS +2-110
1 unit bet pays 109 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 11-130, -35.24 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....and another long dry spell, hit five teamer on July 23rd...
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
:0074
-----------
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Y'all know I have my crushes. The biggest one might be Mr. Noah Syndergaard who I wrote a Breakdown for in the off-season because I was just so in love with his Fastball. Then he showed up on the scene in 2016 and became the dominating force I dreamed of. But suddenly, the bone spur discussion and the feared 93/91 happened leading to yesterday's 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks line. He now holds a 4.06 ERA with a 1.53 WHIP over his last eight starts during which his walks are up to 3.05 per nine, holding an atrocious .405 BABIP and 72.6% LOB rate in that time. You've been scared for a while - I know this because I have been too. What can we expect from the almighty Thor moving forward? Well, there are two things I've noticed over this poor span. First, his Slider velocity is now around 89 mph, where it was about 91/92 earlier in the season. His Fastball velocity is actually still up there, so it's a bit odd to see him slow down the slide piece a little. But the major issue isn't his Slider's effectiveness, it's his Changeup, which is actually registering a negative pitch value this season. He gets a ton of whiffs on the pitch (23.6%!), which tells me the likely suspect is its location, and it's pretty apparent. Before June 22nd, Thor was burying the pitch below the strikezone more often than not, rarely hinting at the middle part of the zone. Since June 22nd, the pitch is sneaking into the wheelhouse for right-handers: middle-inside corner. Batters are hitting .462 off it in those eight games, with an ISO of .539. Holy bejesus. Hopefully he can fix his command of the pitch and take a step in the right direction moving forward.
Based on the combination of skill and matchup, rookie Jameson Taillon is one of the day's most intriguing options. The right-hander has delivered five straight quality starts with a 2.40 ERA across them. He also has 28 K's and just one walk in those five outings. Better yet, Thursday's matchup pits him against the Padres, who strike out 24 percent of the time versus righties and have one of the weakest lineups in baseball. Taillon has pitched more than six innings just once in nine starts and has yet to strike out more than seven. However, if there were a time for a breakout performance, this is it.
Houston Astros are: 7-1 in Fister?s last 8 road starts....13-5 in Fister?s last 18 starts.
Fister continues to reel off quality starts, as he now has 15 of them in 22 chances this year. However, the right-hander has struggled from a fielding-independent standpoint (4.49 FIP, 4.76 xFIP) and may be hard-pressed to keep his ERA under 3.75 by season's end.
COLORADO ROCKIES VS TEXAS RANGERS
PLAY: COLORADO ROCKIES 1ST HALF
The first three games of the Rockies-Rangers series have been a nightmore for the team from Colorado. The Rockies have held a late lead in each game, but weren?t able to close any of them out. Charge that to some bad bullpen work and the relentless determination on the Texas side. The Rangers are not built at all the same way, but they?re showing those same late game tendencies we all kept seeing from the eventual champion Royals last season. I?m not saying Texas will win it all, but there?s a bit of deja vu taking place here.
As for today?s series windup, I?ll play the edge on paper that?s owned by Chad Bettis against Lucas Harrell. There?s a clear advantage on the numbers for Bettis. He?s not by any stretch a top of the rotation starting pitcher. But the fact remains Bettis has been doing a reasonably good job lately. Harrell is strictly a barrel scraper. His true ERA, which I base on an average of three key metrics, is 4.99, and that?s bascially a guy who shouldn?t be serious chalk unles he?s matched up with someone even worse.
There?s likely to be plenty of sweat here as the Colorado bullpen is very untrustworthy right now and the Rangers refuse to believe they?re ever out of a game. At the current tag, I can make the case the Rockies are worth backing on value. However, with the key being the Bettis-Harrell comparison and the two bullpens sure to be involved for what figures to be multiple innings, I?ll just go with the first half play on the Rockies.
Garza has recorded a 3.12 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP over his past three starts (2-0), but he still owns a 5.03 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP on the year. While he is due for positive regression with his 63 percent strand rate and his 53 percent ground-ball rate helps him limit damage,
Hernandez put up a 4.60 ERA in the Minors this season, and I doubt he goes deep in this game, giving the Brewers a shot at the Braves bullpen.
Angels vs. Indians
Play: Over 8
The Cleveland Indians look to strengthen their division lead when they host the faltering Anaheim Angels. Corey Kluber and the Tribe are a huge favorite over the Angels and Jhoulys Chacin. The total is eight.
The Angels (49-64, 23-34 road) are coming off a four-game sweep at the hands of the Chicago Cubs. They managed just four hits and two walks against Jason Hammel and remain in last place in the Western Division.
The Indians (63-48, 31-20 home) have beaten the Angels in five of the past six meetings. They continue to set the pace in the American League Central Division and begin play with a three-game lead over the second-place Tigers. If Cleveland is going to extend its lead over Detroit, it?s likely to happen during its 11-game homestand which begins today.
Chacin (2-5, 5.22 ERA) has rejoined the starting rotation replacing Tim Linecum in the rotation, after the former Cy Young winner was designated for assignment on Saturday. Today?s start will be Chacin's first since July 1.
Kluber (11-8, 3.22 ERA)is coming off a solid start on Sunday in New York, when he held the Yankees to two runs and five hits in eight innings of a 5-2 Indians victory. In his last five starts, Kluber is 3-0 with a 1.46 ERA while holding opposing batters to a .202 batting average. In his last start vs. the Angels on June 10, he twirled a three-hit complete game 6-2 victory.
The Angels are 7-1 in their last eight vs. the Central Division but are 0-5 in their past five road games. The Halos are 1-5 in Chacin?s past six outings.
The Indians are 4-0 in their last four vs. the AL West and 19-8 in their last 27 home games. The Tribe is 4-0 in Kluber?s last five starts.
The on-going battle that we go through each day is to attempt to have an ?Edge vs. Market Price? in every bet that gets placed. It is not an exercise of exactitude; the reality is that it may not be possible to ever get above the level of making ?educated guesses?. But over time the survivor learns patience, even if it is the hard way ? if you are betting what you think are sound handicapping principles, and not making money, it is a way of telling you that the markets are also using many of those same factors.
I bring it up this morning because you could make one of the most convincing baseball arguments to be made perhaps all season ? a weary Arizona team off of not just a rain delay last night, but also a 4:03 game afterwards, should struggle to get to Noah Syndergaard in today?s early start in Queens, a game that begins at 10:10 AM on the Diamondbacks body clocks. As will usually be the case, there will be no batting practice for an early start on a travel day, creating an even more difficult contrast for the hitters as they go from Bartolo Colon to Thor.
Sounds promising, doesn?t it? But there may not be a damn thing to do with it. The slumping Mets are overpriced at -230, those edges already being factored into the line. The Total offers no value because both bullpens carry major fatigue ratings, especially for the closers (back-to-back for Jake Barrett, and 38 pitchers over two full innings from Jeurys Familia last night). And in particular note what that means in terms of a Syndergaard start, since he has not gone beyond the 6th inning in over a month.
There could be a lot of flailing in the breeze from the Arizona hitters this afternoon, but the guys setting the odds, and the first ones to the window, are well aware of it. So you pass and move on to the next game.
At least we can bet some Thursday football?
In the Sights, NFL?
You can quickly understand how the pre-season is an entirely different ballgame when you note that Carolina is mostly -2.5 at Denver for the opener on September 8, yet +2 at Baltimore tonight. In this case the incongruity means value, because the usual reasons for the Ravens being favored in this setting don?t add up. So it will be #257 Carolina (7:30 Eastern) in play, and this one works at +1or better.
No, there is not any sense of urgency for the Panthers to get a scoreboard ?W?, but this is a deep roster without all that much change from 2015, and in particular the depth in the DL can matter in these games. In this instance it is not so much calling for them to play well, but rather a lack of reasons why they would play poorly. Cam Newton and the first-team offense is projected to see action, and behind Newton there is an able rotation of Derek Anderson and Joe Webb. Even Webb is in his third Panther training camp now so he knows the system well, and his mobility makes him one of the most dangerous #3 QBs in the league in the pre-season.
Contrast that QB rotation with a Baltimore trio of Ryan Mallett, Josh Johnson and Jerrod Johnson, all in their first Ravens training camp (though Mallett did play in two games last year after coming on-board late). Joe Flacco is not going to play tonight, and neither are stalwarts Steve Smith, Terrell Suggs or Elvis Dumervil. As such the scoreboard is not a major issue for John Harbaugh, and fter injuries riddled his team last year the focus will be even more on keeping his key cogs healthy through this camp cycle.
week
Colorado @ TEXAS
Colorado +128 over TEXAS
We often discuss starting pitchers that cannot be favoured in a certain price range and Lucas Harrell of the Rangers fits that bill. This career minor-leaguer is priced like he?s been winning games at this level for years when in fact, he?s been losing games and getting whacked in the minors for years. Harrell has appeared in minor league games every year since 2004. He has close to 1000 minor-league innings under his belt, not to mention a year in the Korean League last season in which he went 10-11 with a 4.93 ERA. Prior to this season, Harrell had pitched a grand total of three MLB innings since 2013. Harrell's MLB history doesn't provide much comfort for chalk bettors either, as he has a career xERA of 4.81. The Rangers were and are still desperate for starters with both Derek Holland and Colby Lewis out, which is the only reason that Harrell is in.
Meanwhile, Chad Bettis is being ignored, which is no surprise given his rough 5.31 ERA and 1.47 WHIP. However, Bettis pitches in a park that is unforgiving to everyone so his ERA is meaningless. Fact is, there are some components of his skill foundation worth buying. Bettis has outstanding command with just 38 walks issued in 133 innings. He keeps the ball on the ground with an elite 52% groundball rate. He also has 103 K?s in those 133 frames with the support of his 10% swing and miss rate and 93 MPH heat with life. Bettis ended the season last year with eight consecutive dominant starts before an elbow injury put an end to it. He?s on that same course this season and he?s also one of the best undervalued starters on today?s card.
N.Y. Yankees @ BOSTON
N.Y. Yankees +121 over BOSTON
If you think the Yankees are dead, think again. New York got rid of some dead weight at the deadline, they?re getting rid of more dead weight on Friday and catcher Brian McCann has been moved aside in favor of rookie phenom Gary Sanchez, a player that the Yankees signed out of the Dominican Republic when he was just 16-years-old. The media is suggesting that the Bombers waved the white flag at the deadline but what we see is a bunch of hungry and talented kids ready to step up and we also see the best pitching staff in the AL East. These Yanks are suddenly a lot more attractive than they were a month ago by a wide margin.
Part of that great pitching staff gets the start today. Michael Pineda is 6-10 with a 5.17 ERA after 22 starts. Just like some pitchers are very lucky, others can get unlucky too for an extended period of time and that applies to Pineda. That his ERA is one of the highest among AL starters with 100 innings or more is ludicrous. Michael Pineda continues to be saddled with a trifecta of bad luck with a high 36% hit rate, low 65% strand rate and high 18% hr/f rate. He has been called a head case by some with little chance at improvement but that prognosis is also ludicrous. Pineda has filthy stuff. He has 149 K?s in 125 frames with just 36 walks issued. He also has a 16% swing and miss rate, which is in Clayton Kershaw territory. Pineda also owns better skills with runners on base than any starter in MLB not named Kershaw with 10 K?s/9, 0.8 BB?s/9 and 45% groundballs. Again, he has been victimized by a crazy trifecta of terrible luck in that situation with a 38% hit rate and 8% (!) strand rate. With a 2.89 xERA and 1.02 xWHIP, Pineda is the premier buy-low starting pitcher in baseball. He has Cy Young winner stuff, period.
Then there?s Eduardo Rodriguez, who comes in with a 5.58 ERA after 58 innings but the difference between he and Pineda is that the numbers are all legit regarding Rodriguez. Rodriguez has great potential but he?s just not there yet. His xERA of 4.99 tells the story of a pitcher that has a big fly-ball lean profile. Rodriguez?s 31% groundball rate is the lowest among today?s starters and is also one of the lowest in the majors.
Lastly, Joe Girardi managed last night?s game like it was the seventh game of the World Series after his starter, Nathan Eovaldi was injured and removed early in the game. Girardi maneuvered through reliever after reliever and making a change whenever he smelled trouble. The Yanks would go on to rally late and run away 9-4 and now they?re just 4? games back of a Wild Card spot. Don?t sell the Yanks short like the media is. With all that dead weight, New York was overpriced daily but now with an influx of enthusiastic youngsters getting a chance, they are underpriced daily and we?re buyers.
2:10 PM MLB [905] TOTAL o9.5 -110 (ATL BRAVES vrs MIL BREWERS) ( R HERNANDEZ -R / M GARZA -R )
8:05 PM MLB [908] CHI CUBS -156 ( C MARTINEZ -R / J LESTER -L )
3:35 PM MLB [911] BAL ORIOLES -143 ( C TILLMAN -R / A TRIGGS -R )
7:10 PM MLB [916] CLE INDIANS -1.5 -115 ( J CHACIN -R / C KLUBER -R )
8:15 PM MLB [918] KC ROYALS -160 ( M GONZALEZ -R / D DUFFY -L )
12:10 PM MLB [1902] TOTAL u4-120 (1H ARI DBACKS vrs 1H NY METS) ( B SHIPLEY -R / N SYNDERGAARD -R )
7:30 PM NFL [257] CAR PANTHERS +2-110
1 unit bet pays 109 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 11-130, -35.24 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....and another long dry spell, hit five teamer on July 23rd...
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
-----------
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Y'all know I have my crushes. The biggest one might be Mr. Noah Syndergaard who I wrote a Breakdown for in the off-season because I was just so in love with his Fastball. Then he showed up on the scene in 2016 and became the dominating force I dreamed of. But suddenly, the bone spur discussion and the feared 93/91 happened leading to yesterday's 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks line. He now holds a 4.06 ERA with a 1.53 WHIP over his last eight starts during which his walks are up to 3.05 per nine, holding an atrocious .405 BABIP and 72.6% LOB rate in that time. You've been scared for a while - I know this because I have been too. What can we expect from the almighty Thor moving forward? Well, there are two things I've noticed over this poor span. First, his Slider velocity is now around 89 mph, where it was about 91/92 earlier in the season. His Fastball velocity is actually still up there, so it's a bit odd to see him slow down the slide piece a little. But the major issue isn't his Slider's effectiveness, it's his Changeup, which is actually registering a negative pitch value this season. He gets a ton of whiffs on the pitch (23.6%!), which tells me the likely suspect is its location, and it's pretty apparent. Before June 22nd, Thor was burying the pitch below the strikezone more often than not, rarely hinting at the middle part of the zone. Since June 22nd, the pitch is sneaking into the wheelhouse for right-handers: middle-inside corner. Batters are hitting .462 off it in those eight games, with an ISO of .539. Holy bejesus. Hopefully he can fix his command of the pitch and take a step in the right direction moving forward.
Based on the combination of skill and matchup, rookie Jameson Taillon is one of the day's most intriguing options. The right-hander has delivered five straight quality starts with a 2.40 ERA across them. He also has 28 K's and just one walk in those five outings. Better yet, Thursday's matchup pits him against the Padres, who strike out 24 percent of the time versus righties and have one of the weakest lineups in baseball. Taillon has pitched more than six innings just once in nine starts and has yet to strike out more than seven. However, if there were a time for a breakout performance, this is it.
Houston Astros are: 7-1 in Fister?s last 8 road starts....13-5 in Fister?s last 18 starts.
Fister continues to reel off quality starts, as he now has 15 of them in 22 chances this year. However, the right-hander has struggled from a fielding-independent standpoint (4.49 FIP, 4.76 xFIP) and may be hard-pressed to keep his ERA under 3.75 by season's end.
COLORADO ROCKIES VS TEXAS RANGERS
PLAY: COLORADO ROCKIES 1ST HALF
The first three games of the Rockies-Rangers series have been a nightmore for the team from Colorado. The Rockies have held a late lead in each game, but weren?t able to close any of them out. Charge that to some bad bullpen work and the relentless determination on the Texas side. The Rangers are not built at all the same way, but they?re showing those same late game tendencies we all kept seeing from the eventual champion Royals last season. I?m not saying Texas will win it all, but there?s a bit of deja vu taking place here.
As for today?s series windup, I?ll play the edge on paper that?s owned by Chad Bettis against Lucas Harrell. There?s a clear advantage on the numbers for Bettis. He?s not by any stretch a top of the rotation starting pitcher. But the fact remains Bettis has been doing a reasonably good job lately. Harrell is strictly a barrel scraper. His true ERA, which I base on an average of three key metrics, is 4.99, and that?s bascially a guy who shouldn?t be serious chalk unles he?s matched up with someone even worse.
There?s likely to be plenty of sweat here as the Colorado bullpen is very untrustworthy right now and the Rangers refuse to believe they?re ever out of a game. At the current tag, I can make the case the Rockies are worth backing on value. However, with the key being the Bettis-Harrell comparison and the two bullpens sure to be involved for what figures to be multiple innings, I?ll just go with the first half play on the Rockies.
Garza has recorded a 3.12 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP over his past three starts (2-0), but he still owns a 5.03 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP on the year. While he is due for positive regression with his 63 percent strand rate and his 53 percent ground-ball rate helps him limit damage,
Hernandez put up a 4.60 ERA in the Minors this season, and I doubt he goes deep in this game, giving the Brewers a shot at the Braves bullpen.
Angels vs. Indians
Play: Over 8
The Cleveland Indians look to strengthen their division lead when they host the faltering Anaheim Angels. Corey Kluber and the Tribe are a huge favorite over the Angels and Jhoulys Chacin. The total is eight.
The Angels (49-64, 23-34 road) are coming off a four-game sweep at the hands of the Chicago Cubs. They managed just four hits and two walks against Jason Hammel and remain in last place in the Western Division.
The Indians (63-48, 31-20 home) have beaten the Angels in five of the past six meetings. They continue to set the pace in the American League Central Division and begin play with a three-game lead over the second-place Tigers. If Cleveland is going to extend its lead over Detroit, it?s likely to happen during its 11-game homestand which begins today.
Chacin (2-5, 5.22 ERA) has rejoined the starting rotation replacing Tim Linecum in the rotation, after the former Cy Young winner was designated for assignment on Saturday. Today?s start will be Chacin's first since July 1.
Kluber (11-8, 3.22 ERA)is coming off a solid start on Sunday in New York, when he held the Yankees to two runs and five hits in eight innings of a 5-2 Indians victory. In his last five starts, Kluber is 3-0 with a 1.46 ERA while holding opposing batters to a .202 batting average. In his last start vs. the Angels on June 10, he twirled a three-hit complete game 6-2 victory.
The Angels are 7-1 in their last eight vs. the Central Division but are 0-5 in their past five road games. The Halos are 1-5 in Chacin?s past six outings.
The Indians are 4-0 in their last four vs. the AL West and 19-8 in their last 27 home games. The Tribe is 4-0 in Kluber?s last five starts.
The on-going battle that we go through each day is to attempt to have an ?Edge vs. Market Price? in every bet that gets placed. It is not an exercise of exactitude; the reality is that it may not be possible to ever get above the level of making ?educated guesses?. But over time the survivor learns patience, even if it is the hard way ? if you are betting what you think are sound handicapping principles, and not making money, it is a way of telling you that the markets are also using many of those same factors.
I bring it up this morning because you could make one of the most convincing baseball arguments to be made perhaps all season ? a weary Arizona team off of not just a rain delay last night, but also a 4:03 game afterwards, should struggle to get to Noah Syndergaard in today?s early start in Queens, a game that begins at 10:10 AM on the Diamondbacks body clocks. As will usually be the case, there will be no batting practice for an early start on a travel day, creating an even more difficult contrast for the hitters as they go from Bartolo Colon to Thor.
Sounds promising, doesn?t it? But there may not be a damn thing to do with it. The slumping Mets are overpriced at -230, those edges already being factored into the line. The Total offers no value because both bullpens carry major fatigue ratings, especially for the closers (back-to-back for Jake Barrett, and 38 pitchers over two full innings from Jeurys Familia last night). And in particular note what that means in terms of a Syndergaard start, since he has not gone beyond the 6th inning in over a month.
There could be a lot of flailing in the breeze from the Arizona hitters this afternoon, but the guys setting the odds, and the first ones to the window, are well aware of it. So you pass and move on to the next game.
At least we can bet some Thursday football?
In the Sights, NFL?
You can quickly understand how the pre-season is an entirely different ballgame when you note that Carolina is mostly -2.5 at Denver for the opener on September 8, yet +2 at Baltimore tonight. In this case the incongruity means value, because the usual reasons for the Ravens being favored in this setting don?t add up. So it will be #257 Carolina (7:30 Eastern) in play, and this one works at +1or better.
No, there is not any sense of urgency for the Panthers to get a scoreboard ?W?, but this is a deep roster without all that much change from 2015, and in particular the depth in the DL can matter in these games. In this instance it is not so much calling for them to play well, but rather a lack of reasons why they would play poorly. Cam Newton and the first-team offense is projected to see action, and behind Newton there is an able rotation of Derek Anderson and Joe Webb. Even Webb is in his third Panther training camp now so he knows the system well, and his mobility makes him one of the most dangerous #3 QBs in the league in the pre-season.
Contrast that QB rotation with a Baltimore trio of Ryan Mallett, Josh Johnson and Jerrod Johnson, all in their first Ravens training camp (though Mallett did play in two games last year after coming on-board late). Joe Flacco is not going to play tonight, and neither are stalwarts Steve Smith, Terrell Suggs or Elvis Dumervil. As such the scoreboard is not a major issue for John Harbaugh, and fter injuries riddled his team last year the focus will be even more on keeping his key cogs healthy through this camp cycle.
week
Colorado @ TEXAS
Colorado +128 over TEXAS
We often discuss starting pitchers that cannot be favoured in a certain price range and Lucas Harrell of the Rangers fits that bill. This career minor-leaguer is priced like he?s been winning games at this level for years when in fact, he?s been losing games and getting whacked in the minors for years. Harrell has appeared in minor league games every year since 2004. He has close to 1000 minor-league innings under his belt, not to mention a year in the Korean League last season in which he went 10-11 with a 4.93 ERA. Prior to this season, Harrell had pitched a grand total of three MLB innings since 2013. Harrell's MLB history doesn't provide much comfort for chalk bettors either, as he has a career xERA of 4.81. The Rangers were and are still desperate for starters with both Derek Holland and Colby Lewis out, which is the only reason that Harrell is in.
Meanwhile, Chad Bettis is being ignored, which is no surprise given his rough 5.31 ERA and 1.47 WHIP. However, Bettis pitches in a park that is unforgiving to everyone so his ERA is meaningless. Fact is, there are some components of his skill foundation worth buying. Bettis has outstanding command with just 38 walks issued in 133 innings. He keeps the ball on the ground with an elite 52% groundball rate. He also has 103 K?s in those 133 frames with the support of his 10% swing and miss rate and 93 MPH heat with life. Bettis ended the season last year with eight consecutive dominant starts before an elbow injury put an end to it. He?s on that same course this season and he?s also one of the best undervalued starters on today?s card.
N.Y. Yankees @ BOSTON
N.Y. Yankees +121 over BOSTON
If you think the Yankees are dead, think again. New York got rid of some dead weight at the deadline, they?re getting rid of more dead weight on Friday and catcher Brian McCann has been moved aside in favor of rookie phenom Gary Sanchez, a player that the Yankees signed out of the Dominican Republic when he was just 16-years-old. The media is suggesting that the Bombers waved the white flag at the deadline but what we see is a bunch of hungry and talented kids ready to step up and we also see the best pitching staff in the AL East. These Yanks are suddenly a lot more attractive than they were a month ago by a wide margin.
Part of that great pitching staff gets the start today. Michael Pineda is 6-10 with a 5.17 ERA after 22 starts. Just like some pitchers are very lucky, others can get unlucky too for an extended period of time and that applies to Pineda. That his ERA is one of the highest among AL starters with 100 innings or more is ludicrous. Michael Pineda continues to be saddled with a trifecta of bad luck with a high 36% hit rate, low 65% strand rate and high 18% hr/f rate. He has been called a head case by some with little chance at improvement but that prognosis is also ludicrous. Pineda has filthy stuff. He has 149 K?s in 125 frames with just 36 walks issued. He also has a 16% swing and miss rate, which is in Clayton Kershaw territory. Pineda also owns better skills with runners on base than any starter in MLB not named Kershaw with 10 K?s/9, 0.8 BB?s/9 and 45% groundballs. Again, he has been victimized by a crazy trifecta of terrible luck in that situation with a 38% hit rate and 8% (!) strand rate. With a 2.89 xERA and 1.02 xWHIP, Pineda is the premier buy-low starting pitcher in baseball. He has Cy Young winner stuff, period.
Then there?s Eduardo Rodriguez, who comes in with a 5.58 ERA after 58 innings but the difference between he and Pineda is that the numbers are all legit regarding Rodriguez. Rodriguez has great potential but he?s just not there yet. His xERA of 4.99 tells the story of a pitcher that has a big fly-ball lean profile. Rodriguez?s 31% groundball rate is the lowest among today?s starters and is also one of the lowest in the majors.
Lastly, Joe Girardi managed last night?s game like it was the seventh game of the World Series after his starter, Nathan Eovaldi was injured and removed early in the game. Girardi maneuvered through reliever after reliever and making a change whenever he smelled trouble. The Yanks would go on to rally late and run away 9-4 and now they?re just 4? games back of a Wild Card spot. Don?t sell the Yanks short like the media is. With all that dead weight, New York was overpriced daily but now with an influx of enthusiastic youngsters getting a chance, they are underpriced daily and we?re buyers.
