08:10 PM MLB [10958] Minnesota Twins +2.5 -260 ( J Quintana/Santana)
08:00 PM NFL [118] TOTAL u36.5 -110 (Green Bay Packers vrs Kansas City Chiefs)
08:00 PM CFB [142] TOTAL u41.5 -110 (SOUTH CAROLINA vrs VANDERBILT)
07:30 PM CFB [189] APPALACHIAN ST +21-110
04:30 PM SOC [53856] Colombia -270 - WC QUALIFIERS - SOUTHAMERICA - soccer
07:00 PM NBA [602] TOTAL u156-110 (New York Liberty vrs Indiana Fever)
08:30 PM MU [8166] J Del Potro -280 (S Johnson vrs J Del Potro) ATP Tennis
1 unit bet pays 33 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 14-146, -34.49 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....and another long dry spell, hit five teamer on July 23rd....yet another long dry spell, hit four teamer on Aug 17...hit nice daytime five teamer on Aug 18....won small daytime three teamer on Aug 24..
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
:0074
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
New York Mets are 5-2 in deGrom?s last 7 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
DeGrom's last start was skipped so he could work on a mechanical issue, which likely contributed to his recent poor performance (13 runs allowed over his last two starts), so the hope is that he's ready to right the ship. The Marlins are below average against right-handed pitching (94 wRC+) and posted an MLB-worst 82 wRC+ in August, so the matchup is definitely favorable. Add in the fact that deGrom is much better at Citi Field (1.89 ERA vs. 4.16 ERA on the road) and owns a 2.80 ERA and 10.2 K/9 over seven career starts against Miami,
The decision to skip deGrom was made after he spoke with Mets manager Terry Collins and GM Sandy Alderson.
Collins said Friday that rest in-season has done deGrom well during the last two seasons.
Alderson noted that deGrom?s pitches aren?t moving the way they usually do.
Alderson noted he doesn?t believe it?s a health issue for deGrom, and suggested it could be a mechanical issue.
DeGrom, who said after his start on Wednesday that most of his pitches were drifting over the middle of the plate, said he?ll stay on his regular routine.
Just get ready to pitch, go through same routine as if I would pitch my next start. Follow that routine staying what I have been doing.
He added that he thinks the mechanical glitch could be fixed quickly, but understands why time off can be beneficial.
I feel like I would be able to fix it (the glitch) in between, but like they said when I had rest I come back better from it. It?s a long season, of course I want to be our there. We decided this is in my best interest
DeGrom?s velocity has been fine during his last two starts, but as he mentioned, his location has been terrible.
Ervin Santana was roughed up by the Blue Jays in Toronto his last time out (6 ER in 6 2/3 IP). He'd been on a roll prior to that, however, allowing two or fewer runs in 10 of 11 starts, culminating in a 1.79 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in that timeframe. On Thursday, he matches up well with a White Sox club that's struggled against righty pitching (87 wRC+). They don't strike out a ton, but whiffs aren't a big part of Santana's game, anyway.
Chicago @ MINNESOTA
MINNESOTA +105 over Chicago
When we last faded Jose Quintana, we deemed him "ill-equipped" to maintain a sub-3.00 ERA and questioned his ace status despite a 1.98 ERA at the time. Quintana has continued to dominate, as he's posted a sub-2.65 ERA each month except June (5.51). He comes into this start with a 2.77 ERA after 26 starts but these are the same skills he's posted in previous seasons. Quintana's surface ERA has been driven by some good fortune, as hit % and strand % haven't been this favorable at any point in his career. His xERA of 3.90 further suggests a correction is coming. Quintana?s K-rate and control are right in line with recent seasons. Quintana's groundball rate has plummeted despite using his sinker more often (career-high 24% usage in 2016). Despite the career-best ERA, little has changed for Quintana from a pure skills standpoint. He?s reliable and he?ll eat innings but at the end of the day, he?s as average as he?s always been.
When we last looked at Ervin Santana toward the end of June, he had 4.64 ERA. However, a 1.75 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in 57 second half innings is reason enough for another assessment. Is Santana likely to finish the 2016 season strong? Very good skills and some good fortune have combined to enhance his second half results but it is all legit. Santana has enough velocity and induces sufficient swinging strikes to support a K-rate somewhere between 7 and 8K?s/9. His slider is working beautifully in the second half with a 21% swing and miss rate. Over his last five starts, Santana has whiffed 28 batters in 27 frames with an elite 13% swing and miss rate. Certainly he has a chance to thrive here but let?s put aside the starters for a minute and focus on the situation.
The Twinkies have lost 13 in a row. While we are not usually in favor of backing such a cold team, we?re pretty sure that the Twins focus will be sharp in an attempt to snap the ugly funk they?re in. Santana is a seasoned vet that has seen it all so he may be the perfect starter to snap it. Meanwhile, the South Side is coming off a series against Detroit with the opportunity to play spoiler. They failed miserably by getting swept. They now go from that important series to this meaningless one. Playing the spoiler role is one that is exciting and motivating, especially against a rival like Detroit. After getting swept, the South Side will limp into this series with likely far less intensity. We are seeing a similar scenario play out in Atlanta the past couple of days. San Diego went into Miami last weekend and took two of three from the playoff contending Marlins. After that series they went into Atlanta, as a non-contender playing a non-contender, and were outscored 15-4 in losing the first two games of that series. We expect a similar mindset from the South Side here.
---
San Francisco vs. Chicago
Play: San Francisco F5
Jeff Samardzija heads back to his old Wrigley stomping grounds here. He?s coming in on a warm roll, with four consecutive good starts. I don?t think there?s any question that this coincides with Samardzija resurrecting his curveball, which had been in mothballs for years. This is a nice add to his arsenal, as it finally gives Samardzija a true off speed offering. I think one of his problems has been that he doesn?t have a changeup, and the variance between his fastball and his other pitches just wasn?t particularly dramatic. Now he?s got about a 15MPH gap between the fastball and an 80MPH curve. It doesn?t even have to be a great pitch, if it gets the hitters timing messed up a little bit, it becomes a valuable weapon. Whether or not this is anything more that a short term fluke remains to be be seen, but at least for right now the curveball has clearly been a plus for Samardzija overall.
Mike Montgomery will go for the Cubs, and he?s not likely to go much past five innings. The lefty has made four starts, two of which were quite good, the other two were not. It?s all about control for Montgomery. When he?s getting ahead of hitters, he?s tough. When he?s not, he becomes hittable and walks can also be an issue.
I mulled over playing this full game at what will be a better price than a 1H wager. But given the Cubs amazing record at home and the inconsistency of the SF bullpen, I decided that the F5 looks like a better option, so I?ll play the Giants that way here.
White Sox vs. Twins
Pick: Twins
The Minnesota Twins have owned one of MLB's worst records for most of the 2016 season but as the calendar turns to September 1, the Twins are in their worst funk in a longtime. Minnesota went 15-11 in July but followed that with a 9-19 August by losing their final 13 games of the month. The 13-game losing streak is one shy of the franchise mark set in 1982 and the team's current slide is tied with the 1961 club for the second-longest streak in team history. Minnesota now owns MLB's worst record (49-84) and opens the new month with a four-game series against the 63-69 Chicago White Sox at Target Field. Chicago is coming off getting swept in a three-game series against the Tigers at Comerica Park, with that three-game skid dropping the White Sox to 8 1/2 games out of the second wild card spot and a whopping 13 games back of division-leading Cleveland.
Jose Quintana (11-9, 2.77 ERA) gets the ball for Chicago on Thursday, opposed by Minnesota's Ervin Santana (6-10, 3.54 ERA). Santana deserves better than his record, as playing for the now MLB-worst Twins, leaves him 7-17 in team starts (minus-$1031) despite his solid 3.54 ERA. However, Chicago's Quintana knows all too well the feeling of not getting what one deserves. The Chicago lefty has posted ERAs of 3.76, 3.51, 3.32 and 3.36 from 2012 through 2015. His ERA is 2.77 in 2016, after posting a 1.81 ERA and in eight starts since the All-Star break.
However, the White Sox are just 14-12 (minus-$44) in his 26 starts this year and going back to the beginning of his career (2012), his W-L record stands at 44-43, despite a 3.33 ERA. More noteworthy is his 67-78 record in team starts, going minus-$1352 vs the moneyline. The bet here is that 13 losses in a row is enough. Take Santana and the Twins.
NCAA Time: Getting Assistance from Assistants?For BYU/Arizona, it really is what?s up front that counts?
The College Football season gets into gear this evening, a sport that provides some of the biggest edges of all because there are many factors that are difficult for the oddsmakers to build into the line. That means time to deal with both general handicapping technique, and also get into some specifics on this week?s NCAA board, across a key but often neglected handicapping aspect ? the impact of new assistant coaches, especially early in the season.
Item: Some teams may have an edge in game planning this week
Noel Mazzone was the offensive coordinator at UCLA last year. Now he holds that position at Teas A&M, which takes on the Bruins this week. Dave Aranda was the defensive coordinator at Wisconsin. This week he coaches against the Badgers. Shannon Dawson is the new offensive coordinator at Southern Miss, and will be looking across the sidelines at the Kentucky team where he had been the OC. That means some unique plot twists in this week?s matchups, and the kind of ?game inside the game? story lines that can also mean edges.
What the new assistants do is bring two advantages ? not just an understanding of the personnel of the unit that they coached at the previous school, but also the unit they are matching up against as well. It wasn?t just that Mazzone was the one helping to develop Josh Rosen and the UCLA offense, but the fact that he was also going up against the Bruin defense in practice. Aranda does not just know the Wisconsin defenders well, but also much of the Paul Chryst playbook, since he was lining his defenders up against it. And of course the same can be said for Dawson, and note that with him there may also be a little chip on the shoulder as well ? Mazzone and Aranda voluntarily left for their new positions; Dawson was fired by Mark Stoops at Kentucky.
Before getting too excited note that there is a flip side ? the opposing team also knows the ins and outs of the coach, and his preferred way of doing things. Dawson focused on that this week, when asked if Kentucky would likely change many things up because of him - "They?re not going to sit here and change their whole defensive scheme. I have a little knowledge about them and they have a little knowledge about me. Ultimately, the team that executes the best will win. Hopefully, our question marks will be better than theirs."
There was this from UCLA DT Eddie Vanderdoes, on facing Mazzone - ?He?s a smart guy, so he?s not going to call the same stuff that we?ve been seeing for four years in practice. He knows better than that.?
As Wisconsin/LSU at Lambeau field nears, Chryst opted for diplomacy - ?We?re going to be different than what we were last year. What LSU will do will be different than what we did last year. It?ll have an impact, but I don?t know if anyone has the upper hand on it.?
What are the practical applications? I give the edge to the coaches in terms of their knowledge of the opposing players, rather than vice-versa, though it is not something that we can be exact with in terms of a point value. But there are some specifics to dig into, not just for this week but the season ahead.
I believe the LSU defense will be special, a combination of talent and tactics, with Aranda getting the opportunity to coach better personnel than he had at Wisconsin. Considering that the Badgers were #1 in the nation in scoring defense, and #2 in total defense, in 2015 that says something (although an * is required because some of that statistical success was schedule-driven).
The Texas A&M offense has a chance to be much better after under-achieving significantly in 2015, much of those struggles looking like schemes that were not maximizing the talents of the players (there is a question as to how much upside Trevor Knight brings at QB, so perhaps he biggest improvements are a season away). But in terms of matching the talent to the playbook, one plot twist that I expect to see is that the Kentucky offense may be better without Dawson. His ?Air Raid? attack is well-designed, but was not going to fit the kind of skill players being recruited to Lexington, with the new pro-style schemes a better deployment for the kind of talent that will be recruited there.
In a moment it will be time to look at a coaching change that we can put into play immediately, and I will go into deeper detail on this one to focus in on the general concepts involved. But first time to update something that was a prime topic yesterday, and is worth following?
About Last Night?
The Reds have now drawn two walks in 133 trips to the plate over the last four games, and were the enablers for Ricky Nolasco to throw a complete-game shutout at only 94 pitches. Nolasco had not won a game since July 9, and entered Wednesday at 4-12/5.24. That is a rather hideous display of a lack of patience at the batter?s box, and the sort of thing that can happen to a losing team on the road vs. a non-division opponent this late in the season.
In the Sights, Saturday NCAA?
The particular execution is a ticket on #205 BYU (10:30 Eastern), with +1.5 available in some key precincts, and value extending to -1. But there are general concepts at play here that lead to it, and they are worthy of a deeper dive.
There are some significant changes taking place at BYU, with alum Kalani Sitake taking over as HC, and fellow alum and former Heisman Trophy winner Ty Detmer returning to campus to be the OC. I believe they will be good fits, and part of the handicapping key is to note that there are changes being made from the get-go.
Sitake and DC Ilaisa Tuiaki are changing Bronco Mendenhall?s 3-4 schemes into a 4-3, and the personnel on hand allows for a relatively smooth transition. It is more drastic on offense, where the Cougars played at one of the fastest paces in the nation under Robert Anae in recent years, but are now slowing down into more of a pro-set under Detmer.
I will past something that was in an earlier thread on that front, how BYU starting center Parker Dawe explains it ? ?Last year with Anae we had the up tempo go fast go hard offense so we were all about go, go, go. There wasn?t any emphasis on clock management or situational stuff. It was just like we were going to smash people in the mouth regardless of the situation. We were just going to attack. That was the mindset. This year, first of all, coach Detmer is really smart and he understands the game really, really well so his focus in fall camp is execution [of] everything; [creating] the ability to run one play with 10 different looks and execute it perfectly. It is taking time over the ball; getting everyone to have a chance to think of what they are doing and where they are going. It?s about taking time and managing the game.?
What that does for the OL also leads to an interesting take by Dawe ?
?The progression for the offensive line has been awesome. In Anae?s offense, we were in attack mode all the time. Now coach (Mike) Empey is on us every play about our technique, making sure we take the right steps, get to the right spot, move to position. We could go to the right people (to block) but if we do it the wrong way, he?s on us about it. Before, we were like ?just go, don?t think, just go.? So you?ll see the offensive line playing more fundamentally sound under Detmer and Empey.
?I think this year, I would say we are better because we are way more physical. We are becoming technicians. We aren?t just going to go. Last year there wasn?t a ton of footwork. We are big, strong, we?re technical and we are very aggressive, even on the ground. We are shoving all the way to the end of the play. That wasn?t something that was ingrained in us.?
There is also some more to it?
Item: Why I believe that matters this week
I see a major mismatch at the line of scrimmage in this game, enough to be a deciding factor in what the markets are pricing as an even affair. It isn?t just about technique with the BYU OL, but also getting stronger, and I will let Sitake take the lead on that front ?
?That?s why we hit the weight room harder than we?ve ever done before. We felt like we needed to get that edge on the line of scrimmage and we did some unique things to get our guys ready. If you ask our players, we squatted more than any team. I can tell you confidently, we squatted more than any team in the country and we ran more stairs than them. So that built a lot of strength. We lifted every day. We did the same thing in camp. If you want to get bigger, stronger and have confidence, the weight room is the best place to do it.?
Note that part of why it is so important is that the Cougars literally have men in their OL, not boys. While the school does not show the birth dates of the players on their roster, there are starters older than NFL players at three of the positions, with graduate transfers in Andrew Ede and Keyan Norman, who have both already done their Mormon missions, while Dawe is a senior that has done his mission as well. That seasoned group now takes on an Arizona defense trying to rebuild under four new assistant coaches, including DC Marcel Yates, and look at the starting DL in their 3-3-5 alignment -
Justin Belknap 6-2/247
Parker Zellers 6-1/247
Sani Fuimaono 6-1/271
That may well be the smallest starting group in the nation, and in terms of confidence they are coming off of a season in which they allowed 35.8 points per game, that coming despite the fact that the Wildcats faced one of the weakest non-conference schedules of any team.
I believe the Cougars control this one in an old school fashion, with a terrific physical RB tandem in Jamaal Williams and Algernon Brown (at 245, Brown nearly weighs as much as two of the starting Arizona DL), and a healthy Taysom Hill being one of the better running QBs in the land. Arizona will make some plays with speed on offense to keep it close, but the fundamentals of this matchup point to BYU being able to command the line of scrimmage, in front of what I expect to be close to a neutral crowd, with this from Sitake something of interest on that front - "We have fans all over the world. It was evident when we went and did our firesides throughout the country at the destinations we will be playing. We?re going to have fans at every game wherever we play. Arizona happens to be a place where we have a lot of fans and we?re looking forward to them making a lot of noise. We have to give them reason to rise and shout."
South Carolina vs. Vanderbilt
Play: Under 42?
This is obviously already a low total at 42.5 at just over 6 touch downs, but I think we still have some value here when you look at the strengths of each teams which is their defenses. I actually would lean towards South Carolina on the side, I don't think there is much difference between these two schools, but I just can't get too pumped about the hiring of Will Muschamp or backing a team coached by him.
South Carolina was 120th in pace last year averaging just 66 plays per game, and I don't expect much to change when they break in 7 first time offensive starters. This offense is having to replace 3 starters on the offensive line and they are going up against Vanderbilt, a team whose defense returns 83% of their production. A team defense that's good enough to win the SEC East. Vanderbilt held conference opponents to 33% TD percentage in the red zone. They also held conference opponents to 25% third down conversions. I think this is a struggle for South Carolina, and I don't think they will try to do too much here on offense.
Vanderbilt on the other hand also has a poor offense that is unlikely to improve with just 59% of their production returning. This offense was 25th in time of possession, so expect them to run the ball (56% of the time), which falls into the strength of South Carolina's front 7. The front 7 of South Carolina should be much improved and they have attacking linebackers that should set up Vanderbilt in third and long. Vanderbilt has to replace two starters on the offensive line and while that does not sound like much they replace a total of 75 starts from Pulley and Bernstein. Not exciting news for a team that was 102nd in yards per carry a season ago. I think this is poised to be a very boring low scoring game and South Carolina could be in position to pull the upset.
Rice @ W. KENTUCKY
Rice +16? -106 over W. KENTUCKY
Western Kentucky boasted a top-three offense in scoring and top-10 accolades in both passing and total offense in 2015. However, the Hilltoppers will now have to replicate these numbers without one of the most prolific passers in NCAA history, Brandon Doughty. While Coach Jeff Brohm has the prowess and expertise to power up this typically potent offense, he will likely have his work cut out for him in the first game of the post-Brandon Doughty era. Enter Mike White, a transfer from South Florida, who was named as starter less than a week ago after beating out senior Tyler Ferguson and sophomore Drew Eckels for the job.
Western Kentucky enters 2016 with a reputation and a Conference-USA Championship to defend so like many other teams in this scenario, the price to pay to back WKU is an inflated one. Western Kentucky may have had the offensive accolades but their defense had the luxury of knowing their better halves scored over 40 points in 10 of their 14 outings last season. Now this proficiency may take a step backward and the Hilltoppers defense will have to do their part to keep WKU afloat. This same WKU defensive unit returns only one starter from a unit that surrendered 28 points or more in 10 of their 14 contests last year.
Rice had one of the best rushing attacks in 2015 within the Conference-USA, compiling over 177 yards per game on the ground. With respect to the fact both WKU?s offense and defense are both question marks in this affair, there is no reason the Owls cannot swoop in and malinger late in to the fourth quarter, keeping this one closer than the line projects. Let us make one allusion to WKU?s efforts with Doughty at the helm in 2015 when the Hilltoppers kicked off their season at Vanderbilt where they won 14-12. The Hilltoppers could have easily been blown out but the Commodores failed to put them away by blowing numerous scoring chances. It is just a reminder that there is often rust to shake off after a seven-month layoff so when you are spotting a tag like this with a weak defense, you better be sure that outfit will be sharp. Rice isn?t going to wow anyone but what they will attempt to do is run the ball in an attempt to limit WKU?s possessions. Western Kentucky ripped the Owls apart last season with a 49-10 victory and as Rice Coach, David Bailiff said, ?There is power in failure?. Catching WKU in the opener is likely to have some benefits for Rice, who figures to be much better prepped this time around.
08:00 PM NFL [118] TOTAL u36.5 -110 (Green Bay Packers vrs Kansas City Chiefs)
08:00 PM CFB [142] TOTAL u41.5 -110 (SOUTH CAROLINA vrs VANDERBILT)
07:30 PM CFB [189] APPALACHIAN ST +21-110
04:30 PM SOC [53856] Colombia -270 - WC QUALIFIERS - SOUTHAMERICA - soccer
07:00 PM NBA [602] TOTAL u156-110 (New York Liberty vrs Indiana Fever)
08:30 PM MU [8166] J Del Potro -280 (S Johnson vrs J Del Potro) ATP Tennis
1 unit bet pays 33 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 14-146, -34.49 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....and another long dry spell, hit five teamer on July 23rd....yet another long dry spell, hit four teamer on Aug 17...hit nice daytime five teamer on Aug 18....won small daytime three teamer on Aug 24..
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
New York Mets are 5-2 in deGrom?s last 7 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
DeGrom's last start was skipped so he could work on a mechanical issue, which likely contributed to his recent poor performance (13 runs allowed over his last two starts), so the hope is that he's ready to right the ship. The Marlins are below average against right-handed pitching (94 wRC+) and posted an MLB-worst 82 wRC+ in August, so the matchup is definitely favorable. Add in the fact that deGrom is much better at Citi Field (1.89 ERA vs. 4.16 ERA on the road) and owns a 2.80 ERA and 10.2 K/9 over seven career starts against Miami,
The decision to skip deGrom was made after he spoke with Mets manager Terry Collins and GM Sandy Alderson.
Collins said Friday that rest in-season has done deGrom well during the last two seasons.
Alderson noted that deGrom?s pitches aren?t moving the way they usually do.
Alderson noted he doesn?t believe it?s a health issue for deGrom, and suggested it could be a mechanical issue.
DeGrom, who said after his start on Wednesday that most of his pitches were drifting over the middle of the plate, said he?ll stay on his regular routine.
Just get ready to pitch, go through same routine as if I would pitch my next start. Follow that routine staying what I have been doing.
He added that he thinks the mechanical glitch could be fixed quickly, but understands why time off can be beneficial.
I feel like I would be able to fix it (the glitch) in between, but like they said when I had rest I come back better from it. It?s a long season, of course I want to be our there. We decided this is in my best interest
DeGrom?s velocity has been fine during his last two starts, but as he mentioned, his location has been terrible.
Ervin Santana was roughed up by the Blue Jays in Toronto his last time out (6 ER in 6 2/3 IP). He'd been on a roll prior to that, however, allowing two or fewer runs in 10 of 11 starts, culminating in a 1.79 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in that timeframe. On Thursday, he matches up well with a White Sox club that's struggled against righty pitching (87 wRC+). They don't strike out a ton, but whiffs aren't a big part of Santana's game, anyway.
Chicago @ MINNESOTA
MINNESOTA +105 over Chicago
When we last faded Jose Quintana, we deemed him "ill-equipped" to maintain a sub-3.00 ERA and questioned his ace status despite a 1.98 ERA at the time. Quintana has continued to dominate, as he's posted a sub-2.65 ERA each month except June (5.51). He comes into this start with a 2.77 ERA after 26 starts but these are the same skills he's posted in previous seasons. Quintana's surface ERA has been driven by some good fortune, as hit % and strand % haven't been this favorable at any point in his career. His xERA of 3.90 further suggests a correction is coming. Quintana?s K-rate and control are right in line with recent seasons. Quintana's groundball rate has plummeted despite using his sinker more often (career-high 24% usage in 2016). Despite the career-best ERA, little has changed for Quintana from a pure skills standpoint. He?s reliable and he?ll eat innings but at the end of the day, he?s as average as he?s always been.
When we last looked at Ervin Santana toward the end of June, he had 4.64 ERA. However, a 1.75 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in 57 second half innings is reason enough for another assessment. Is Santana likely to finish the 2016 season strong? Very good skills and some good fortune have combined to enhance his second half results but it is all legit. Santana has enough velocity and induces sufficient swinging strikes to support a K-rate somewhere between 7 and 8K?s/9. His slider is working beautifully in the second half with a 21% swing and miss rate. Over his last five starts, Santana has whiffed 28 batters in 27 frames with an elite 13% swing and miss rate. Certainly he has a chance to thrive here but let?s put aside the starters for a minute and focus on the situation.
The Twinkies have lost 13 in a row. While we are not usually in favor of backing such a cold team, we?re pretty sure that the Twins focus will be sharp in an attempt to snap the ugly funk they?re in. Santana is a seasoned vet that has seen it all so he may be the perfect starter to snap it. Meanwhile, the South Side is coming off a series against Detroit with the opportunity to play spoiler. They failed miserably by getting swept. They now go from that important series to this meaningless one. Playing the spoiler role is one that is exciting and motivating, especially against a rival like Detroit. After getting swept, the South Side will limp into this series with likely far less intensity. We are seeing a similar scenario play out in Atlanta the past couple of days. San Diego went into Miami last weekend and took two of three from the playoff contending Marlins. After that series they went into Atlanta, as a non-contender playing a non-contender, and were outscored 15-4 in losing the first two games of that series. We expect a similar mindset from the South Side here.
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San Francisco vs. Chicago
Play: San Francisco F5
Jeff Samardzija heads back to his old Wrigley stomping grounds here. He?s coming in on a warm roll, with four consecutive good starts. I don?t think there?s any question that this coincides with Samardzija resurrecting his curveball, which had been in mothballs for years. This is a nice add to his arsenal, as it finally gives Samardzija a true off speed offering. I think one of his problems has been that he doesn?t have a changeup, and the variance between his fastball and his other pitches just wasn?t particularly dramatic. Now he?s got about a 15MPH gap between the fastball and an 80MPH curve. It doesn?t even have to be a great pitch, if it gets the hitters timing messed up a little bit, it becomes a valuable weapon. Whether or not this is anything more that a short term fluke remains to be be seen, but at least for right now the curveball has clearly been a plus for Samardzija overall.
Mike Montgomery will go for the Cubs, and he?s not likely to go much past five innings. The lefty has made four starts, two of which were quite good, the other two were not. It?s all about control for Montgomery. When he?s getting ahead of hitters, he?s tough. When he?s not, he becomes hittable and walks can also be an issue.
I mulled over playing this full game at what will be a better price than a 1H wager. But given the Cubs amazing record at home and the inconsistency of the SF bullpen, I decided that the F5 looks like a better option, so I?ll play the Giants that way here.
White Sox vs. Twins
Pick: Twins
The Minnesota Twins have owned one of MLB's worst records for most of the 2016 season but as the calendar turns to September 1, the Twins are in their worst funk in a longtime. Minnesota went 15-11 in July but followed that with a 9-19 August by losing their final 13 games of the month. The 13-game losing streak is one shy of the franchise mark set in 1982 and the team's current slide is tied with the 1961 club for the second-longest streak in team history. Minnesota now owns MLB's worst record (49-84) and opens the new month with a four-game series against the 63-69 Chicago White Sox at Target Field. Chicago is coming off getting swept in a three-game series against the Tigers at Comerica Park, with that three-game skid dropping the White Sox to 8 1/2 games out of the second wild card spot and a whopping 13 games back of division-leading Cleveland.
Jose Quintana (11-9, 2.77 ERA) gets the ball for Chicago on Thursday, opposed by Minnesota's Ervin Santana (6-10, 3.54 ERA). Santana deserves better than his record, as playing for the now MLB-worst Twins, leaves him 7-17 in team starts (minus-$1031) despite his solid 3.54 ERA. However, Chicago's Quintana knows all too well the feeling of not getting what one deserves. The Chicago lefty has posted ERAs of 3.76, 3.51, 3.32 and 3.36 from 2012 through 2015. His ERA is 2.77 in 2016, after posting a 1.81 ERA and in eight starts since the All-Star break.
However, the White Sox are just 14-12 (minus-$44) in his 26 starts this year and going back to the beginning of his career (2012), his W-L record stands at 44-43, despite a 3.33 ERA. More noteworthy is his 67-78 record in team starts, going minus-$1352 vs the moneyline. The bet here is that 13 losses in a row is enough. Take Santana and the Twins.
NCAA Time: Getting Assistance from Assistants?For BYU/Arizona, it really is what?s up front that counts?
The College Football season gets into gear this evening, a sport that provides some of the biggest edges of all because there are many factors that are difficult for the oddsmakers to build into the line. That means time to deal with both general handicapping technique, and also get into some specifics on this week?s NCAA board, across a key but often neglected handicapping aspect ? the impact of new assistant coaches, especially early in the season.
Item: Some teams may have an edge in game planning this week
Noel Mazzone was the offensive coordinator at UCLA last year. Now he holds that position at Teas A&M, which takes on the Bruins this week. Dave Aranda was the defensive coordinator at Wisconsin. This week he coaches against the Badgers. Shannon Dawson is the new offensive coordinator at Southern Miss, and will be looking across the sidelines at the Kentucky team where he had been the OC. That means some unique plot twists in this week?s matchups, and the kind of ?game inside the game? story lines that can also mean edges.
What the new assistants do is bring two advantages ? not just an understanding of the personnel of the unit that they coached at the previous school, but also the unit they are matching up against as well. It wasn?t just that Mazzone was the one helping to develop Josh Rosen and the UCLA offense, but the fact that he was also going up against the Bruin defense in practice. Aranda does not just know the Wisconsin defenders well, but also much of the Paul Chryst playbook, since he was lining his defenders up against it. And of course the same can be said for Dawson, and note that with him there may also be a little chip on the shoulder as well ? Mazzone and Aranda voluntarily left for their new positions; Dawson was fired by Mark Stoops at Kentucky.
Before getting too excited note that there is a flip side ? the opposing team also knows the ins and outs of the coach, and his preferred way of doing things. Dawson focused on that this week, when asked if Kentucky would likely change many things up because of him - "They?re not going to sit here and change their whole defensive scheme. I have a little knowledge about them and they have a little knowledge about me. Ultimately, the team that executes the best will win. Hopefully, our question marks will be better than theirs."
There was this from UCLA DT Eddie Vanderdoes, on facing Mazzone - ?He?s a smart guy, so he?s not going to call the same stuff that we?ve been seeing for four years in practice. He knows better than that.?
As Wisconsin/LSU at Lambeau field nears, Chryst opted for diplomacy - ?We?re going to be different than what we were last year. What LSU will do will be different than what we did last year. It?ll have an impact, but I don?t know if anyone has the upper hand on it.?
What are the practical applications? I give the edge to the coaches in terms of their knowledge of the opposing players, rather than vice-versa, though it is not something that we can be exact with in terms of a point value. But there are some specifics to dig into, not just for this week but the season ahead.
I believe the LSU defense will be special, a combination of talent and tactics, with Aranda getting the opportunity to coach better personnel than he had at Wisconsin. Considering that the Badgers were #1 in the nation in scoring defense, and #2 in total defense, in 2015 that says something (although an * is required because some of that statistical success was schedule-driven).
The Texas A&M offense has a chance to be much better after under-achieving significantly in 2015, much of those struggles looking like schemes that were not maximizing the talents of the players (there is a question as to how much upside Trevor Knight brings at QB, so perhaps he biggest improvements are a season away). But in terms of matching the talent to the playbook, one plot twist that I expect to see is that the Kentucky offense may be better without Dawson. His ?Air Raid? attack is well-designed, but was not going to fit the kind of skill players being recruited to Lexington, with the new pro-style schemes a better deployment for the kind of talent that will be recruited there.
In a moment it will be time to look at a coaching change that we can put into play immediately, and I will go into deeper detail on this one to focus in on the general concepts involved. But first time to update something that was a prime topic yesterday, and is worth following?
About Last Night?
The Reds have now drawn two walks in 133 trips to the plate over the last four games, and were the enablers for Ricky Nolasco to throw a complete-game shutout at only 94 pitches. Nolasco had not won a game since July 9, and entered Wednesday at 4-12/5.24. That is a rather hideous display of a lack of patience at the batter?s box, and the sort of thing that can happen to a losing team on the road vs. a non-division opponent this late in the season.
In the Sights, Saturday NCAA?
The particular execution is a ticket on #205 BYU (10:30 Eastern), with +1.5 available in some key precincts, and value extending to -1. But there are general concepts at play here that lead to it, and they are worthy of a deeper dive.
There are some significant changes taking place at BYU, with alum Kalani Sitake taking over as HC, and fellow alum and former Heisman Trophy winner Ty Detmer returning to campus to be the OC. I believe they will be good fits, and part of the handicapping key is to note that there are changes being made from the get-go.
Sitake and DC Ilaisa Tuiaki are changing Bronco Mendenhall?s 3-4 schemes into a 4-3, and the personnel on hand allows for a relatively smooth transition. It is more drastic on offense, where the Cougars played at one of the fastest paces in the nation under Robert Anae in recent years, but are now slowing down into more of a pro-set under Detmer.
I will past something that was in an earlier thread on that front, how BYU starting center Parker Dawe explains it ? ?Last year with Anae we had the up tempo go fast go hard offense so we were all about go, go, go. There wasn?t any emphasis on clock management or situational stuff. It was just like we were going to smash people in the mouth regardless of the situation. We were just going to attack. That was the mindset. This year, first of all, coach Detmer is really smart and he understands the game really, really well so his focus in fall camp is execution [of] everything; [creating] the ability to run one play with 10 different looks and execute it perfectly. It is taking time over the ball; getting everyone to have a chance to think of what they are doing and where they are going. It?s about taking time and managing the game.?
What that does for the OL also leads to an interesting take by Dawe ?
?The progression for the offensive line has been awesome. In Anae?s offense, we were in attack mode all the time. Now coach (Mike) Empey is on us every play about our technique, making sure we take the right steps, get to the right spot, move to position. We could go to the right people (to block) but if we do it the wrong way, he?s on us about it. Before, we were like ?just go, don?t think, just go.? So you?ll see the offensive line playing more fundamentally sound under Detmer and Empey.
?I think this year, I would say we are better because we are way more physical. We are becoming technicians. We aren?t just going to go. Last year there wasn?t a ton of footwork. We are big, strong, we?re technical and we are very aggressive, even on the ground. We are shoving all the way to the end of the play. That wasn?t something that was ingrained in us.?
There is also some more to it?
Item: Why I believe that matters this week
I see a major mismatch at the line of scrimmage in this game, enough to be a deciding factor in what the markets are pricing as an even affair. It isn?t just about technique with the BYU OL, but also getting stronger, and I will let Sitake take the lead on that front ?
?That?s why we hit the weight room harder than we?ve ever done before. We felt like we needed to get that edge on the line of scrimmage and we did some unique things to get our guys ready. If you ask our players, we squatted more than any team. I can tell you confidently, we squatted more than any team in the country and we ran more stairs than them. So that built a lot of strength. We lifted every day. We did the same thing in camp. If you want to get bigger, stronger and have confidence, the weight room is the best place to do it.?
Note that part of why it is so important is that the Cougars literally have men in their OL, not boys. While the school does not show the birth dates of the players on their roster, there are starters older than NFL players at three of the positions, with graduate transfers in Andrew Ede and Keyan Norman, who have both already done their Mormon missions, while Dawe is a senior that has done his mission as well. That seasoned group now takes on an Arizona defense trying to rebuild under four new assistant coaches, including DC Marcel Yates, and look at the starting DL in their 3-3-5 alignment -
Justin Belknap 6-2/247
Parker Zellers 6-1/247
Sani Fuimaono 6-1/271
That may well be the smallest starting group in the nation, and in terms of confidence they are coming off of a season in which they allowed 35.8 points per game, that coming despite the fact that the Wildcats faced one of the weakest non-conference schedules of any team.
I believe the Cougars control this one in an old school fashion, with a terrific physical RB tandem in Jamaal Williams and Algernon Brown (at 245, Brown nearly weighs as much as two of the starting Arizona DL), and a healthy Taysom Hill being one of the better running QBs in the land. Arizona will make some plays with speed on offense to keep it close, but the fundamentals of this matchup point to BYU being able to command the line of scrimmage, in front of what I expect to be close to a neutral crowd, with this from Sitake something of interest on that front - "We have fans all over the world. It was evident when we went and did our firesides throughout the country at the destinations we will be playing. We?re going to have fans at every game wherever we play. Arizona happens to be a place where we have a lot of fans and we?re looking forward to them making a lot of noise. We have to give them reason to rise and shout."
South Carolina vs. Vanderbilt
Play: Under 42?
This is obviously already a low total at 42.5 at just over 6 touch downs, but I think we still have some value here when you look at the strengths of each teams which is their defenses. I actually would lean towards South Carolina on the side, I don't think there is much difference between these two schools, but I just can't get too pumped about the hiring of Will Muschamp or backing a team coached by him.
South Carolina was 120th in pace last year averaging just 66 plays per game, and I don't expect much to change when they break in 7 first time offensive starters. This offense is having to replace 3 starters on the offensive line and they are going up against Vanderbilt, a team whose defense returns 83% of their production. A team defense that's good enough to win the SEC East. Vanderbilt held conference opponents to 33% TD percentage in the red zone. They also held conference opponents to 25% third down conversions. I think this is a struggle for South Carolina, and I don't think they will try to do too much here on offense.
Vanderbilt on the other hand also has a poor offense that is unlikely to improve with just 59% of their production returning. This offense was 25th in time of possession, so expect them to run the ball (56% of the time), which falls into the strength of South Carolina's front 7. The front 7 of South Carolina should be much improved and they have attacking linebackers that should set up Vanderbilt in third and long. Vanderbilt has to replace two starters on the offensive line and while that does not sound like much they replace a total of 75 starts from Pulley and Bernstein. Not exciting news for a team that was 102nd in yards per carry a season ago. I think this is poised to be a very boring low scoring game and South Carolina could be in position to pull the upset.
Rice @ W. KENTUCKY
Rice +16? -106 over W. KENTUCKY
Western Kentucky boasted a top-three offense in scoring and top-10 accolades in both passing and total offense in 2015. However, the Hilltoppers will now have to replicate these numbers without one of the most prolific passers in NCAA history, Brandon Doughty. While Coach Jeff Brohm has the prowess and expertise to power up this typically potent offense, he will likely have his work cut out for him in the first game of the post-Brandon Doughty era. Enter Mike White, a transfer from South Florida, who was named as starter less than a week ago after beating out senior Tyler Ferguson and sophomore Drew Eckels for the job.
Western Kentucky enters 2016 with a reputation and a Conference-USA Championship to defend so like many other teams in this scenario, the price to pay to back WKU is an inflated one. Western Kentucky may have had the offensive accolades but their defense had the luxury of knowing their better halves scored over 40 points in 10 of their 14 outings last season. Now this proficiency may take a step backward and the Hilltoppers defense will have to do their part to keep WKU afloat. This same WKU defensive unit returns only one starter from a unit that surrendered 28 points or more in 10 of their 14 contests last year.
Rice had one of the best rushing attacks in 2015 within the Conference-USA, compiling over 177 yards per game on the ground. With respect to the fact both WKU?s offense and defense are both question marks in this affair, there is no reason the Owls cannot swoop in and malinger late in to the fourth quarter, keeping this one closer than the line projects. Let us make one allusion to WKU?s efforts with Doughty at the helm in 2015 when the Hilltoppers kicked off their season at Vanderbilt where they won 14-12. The Hilltoppers could have easily been blown out but the Commodores failed to put them away by blowing numerous scoring chances. It is just a reminder that there is often rust to shake off after a seven-month layoff so when you are spotting a tag like this with a weak defense, you better be sure that outfit will be sharp. Rice isn?t going to wow anyone but what they will attempt to do is run the ball in an attempt to limit WKU?s possessions. Western Kentucky ripped the Owls apart last season with a 49-10 victory and as Rice Coach, David Bailiff said, ?There is power in failure?. Catching WKU in the opener is likely to have some benefits for Rice, who figures to be much better prepped this time around.
