08:30 PM NFL [451] CAR PANTHERS -3-110
07:05 PM MLB [904] Pittsburgh Pirates -162 ( D Straily - R / I Nova)
10:10 PM MLB [908] San Diego Padres -134 ( J Hoffman - R / C Richard)
10:10 PM MLB [913] Texas Rangers +108 (Holland/Walker)
07:05 PM MLB [902] Washington Nationals -220 ( A Asher - R / A Cole)
1 unit bet pays 15 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 16-153, -24.49 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....and another long dry spell, hit five teamer on July 23rd....yet another long dry spell, hit four teamer on Aug 17...hit nice daytime five teamer on Aug 18....won small daytime three teamer on Aug 24.....won daytime and evening parlays on Sept 7...yesterday!
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
:0074
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
After about two years of hanging out with the sidelines (they are super cool, alright?) Alex Cobb finally got his chance on the bump again and astounded with a line of 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks against the Jays. He had a rough first inning with Josh Donaldson getting a double after Kevin Kiermaier lost the ball in center, then locating a bad heater to Edwin Encarnacion. However, he settled down a ton and looked like classic Cobb after that. Just to refresh your memory, classic is a 2.87 ERA, 56.2% GB rate, 8.06 K/9 and 2.54 BB/9 as he limited hard contact to just 24.2% across 166.1 innings in 2014. Does this mean that I want to roll with Cobb for the foreseeable future? Yes it does. He gets the Yankees next and while I'm not loving his start in Toronto, he then gets the Yanks, White Sox and Rangers. That's three of his next four starts against favorable opponents. Sign me up.
Tampa Bay +123 over N.Y. YANKEES
After sweeping the Blue Jays to pull within a reasonable distance of making the playoffs, the Yankees stock is once again too high and that makes us instant sellers here. Meanwhile, the Rays are the only team in the AL East out of the playoff picture but the Rays are as good as any of them and they?ll have a huge impact on who gets in and who does not. Tampa is loving the impact they?re having and they?re also loving the fear they instill in the opposition. Now they?ll face C.C. Sabathia.
Sabathia has 13 quality starts in 25 attempts this season. However, at the age of 35 and with another 150 innings under his belt this year, he is not to be trusted as the chalk. In his last start, Sabathia posted a 1.50 ERA in six innings but it was all luck, as he whiffed just two batters. Most of the balls were hard hit and right at folks, which led to an xERA of 6.36. These skills aren't terrible but Sabathia's overall trajectory is still headed in the wrong direction. Sabathia knows enough about pitching to take advantage of the first pitch strike frequently but with a diminished arsenal and facing players that have seen plenty of him over the years, the risk is too high. The Yanks come in as the chalk but we?re suggesting we get the better team and starter here.
Alex Cobb returned to the mound against the Blue Jays last week after missing almost two full years with injuries. All Cobb did in his return was pitch five full innings while striking out seven Blue Jays. Cobb allowed two runs in the first inning but was near flawless afterwards with those seven K?s and inducing 67% grounders. Cobb threw 84 pitches against Toronto so there is a good chance he?ll be stretched out a bit more here. In 2014, Cobb pitched to an ERA of 2.87 in 27 starts. In 2013, he pitched to a 2.76 ERA in 22 starts. The Rays have a habit of producing aces. Next up is Alex Cobb, who was on the verge of being elite before the injuries. Back in 2014, Cobb returned from the disabled list with a vengeance. This kid has a bulldog mentality with the talent and will behind it. We are going to back him with confidence down the stretch because the window to buy low will close very quickly.
Over is 14-3-1 in TEX last 18 overall.
Over is 8-1 in SEA last 9 overall.
Over is 7-1 in SEA last 8 games following a win.
Over is 16-5 in the last 21 TX/SEA meetings.
Texas vs. Seattle
Pick: Texas
The Texas Rangers hold a comfortable 8 1/2-game lead over the Houston Astros in the AL West and also own a two-game lead over the Indians for the best overall record in the AL, which would earn them home field advantage in every postseason series (AL won this year?s All Star game, so AL winner also gets the home field edge in the Fall Classic). As for the 71-68 Seattle Mariners, they may be on the verge of looking towards the future. The Mariners are hopelessly 11 1/2 games behind the Rangers in the AL West and now sit five games behind Baltimore in the wild-card race, with the Tigers, Astros, Yankees and Royals between them and Baltimore.
Derek Holland (7-6, 4.57 ERA) takes the mound for Texas and Taijuan Walker (4-10, 4.60 ERA) for Seattle in the final contest of this four-game series at Safeco. Texas won the first two games of the series while scoring 24 runs but Seattle won last night, 8-3. Holland has won back-to-back starts and has allowed just three runs on 10 hits over 12 innings during that stretch. He now owns a 2.00 ERA in three starts since returning from a two-month absence because of a shoulder injury and historically has fared well vs Seattle, going 12-5 with a 3.56 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 24 career appearances (20 starts / team is 12-8 ).
Seattle?s Walker opened the season as one of the organization?s top prospects (as well as the team?s No. 2 starter!) but has just FOUR wins on the season, while Seattle has gone 7-13 (minus-$825) in his 20 starting assignments in 2016. What?s even more troubling is Walker serving up three HRs and getting torched for six runs (five earned) on six hits in two-thirds of an inning while losing to the Los Angeles Angels in his last outing. That leaves him 0-4 with a 9.55 ERA over his last five starts (team is 1-4) and he?s given up 23 HRs in only 103.2 innings of work this season.
DENVER +3 over Carolina
When going against public opinion in these prime time games, it is almost always recommended that you wait until later in the day to pull the trigger because inevitably, a better price will be had. The number here is 3, which is a key number that books generally don?t like to come off so instead of the line moving to +3?, the vigor will (likely) move instead in our favor. We will therefore wait to pull the trigger here until after dinner. We'll update this then.
It?s a nice way to open the season with a rematch of Super Bowl 50 that was won by the Broncos 24-10 in a defensive showing for the ages. This time around there will be no Peyton Manning and the Panthers will get back Kelvin Benjamin after he sat out the entire 2015 season. Carolina will also be seeking revenge for that embarrassing SB loss that was punctuated with the all too brief press conference appearance by Cam Newton.
What we know for sure is that Carolina was 15-0 last season prior to losing its final regular season game. We also know they destroyed the Seahawks in the playoffs before destroying the Cardinals in the NFC Championship game, 49-15. This is that same team that played in those two games save for the loss of CB Josh Norman. Combine all that with the revenge factor and we can understand the appeal the Panthers have here but we?re not buying any of it. Perhaps it was Carolina that greatly overachieved last year. Carolina had the NFL?s easiest schedule and they took advantage of it by snowballing it into a ton of momentum. This year they?ll have no such luxury and it just might be very difficult to bounce back from such a humbling Super Bowl defeat. Last season, Cam Newton had a career year in which he finished eighth in Passer Rating, but missed the top 10 in the other major passing stats including yards-per-game (16th) and completion percentage (28th) and even though he finished fifth in touchdown passes, a lot of those passes travelled less than 10 yards in the air during blowouts. Now the Panthers go from a 4-point favorite in the Super Bowl played at a neutral site to a three-point favorite in Denver. If the Broncos felt disrespected in the Super Bowl, it is likely pale in comparison to how disrespected they feel here about being a dog in their own barn after winning the Super Bowl.
Another reason and perhaps the biggest of them all that this market is having trouble backing the host is that they have made it out to be Cam Newton versus Denver QB, Trevor Siemian but let us say this. The Broncos let Brock Osweiler walk out the door. They couldn?t have cared less despite grooming him. Denver beat the Panthers in the SB by 14 points with a crippled Peyton Manning that had trouble throwing 10 yards. Mark Sanchez could not beat out Trevor Siemian for the starting role in Week 1. Siemian was a seventh round afterthought in 2015 but outplayed Sanchez during camp and here we are. Paxton Lynch, the Broncos #1 draft pick is in the on-deck circle should Siemian fail. It is hard to imagine any QB being worse than Peyton Manning was in the Super Bowl. Denver?s defense won that game and there is nothing that suggests they can?t win this one too. If it means anything, Carolina looked awful in the preseason and it could very well be them and not the Broncos that suffer a severe hangover from last year. Take the points.
Panthers -3
We waited months for this day and we get a Super Bowl rematch. The Broncos Defense is going to carry this team and really this is the last standing elite defense in the NFL. Denver is going to be just fine this year because of the play on the defensive side of the ball, but there is going to be major growing pains with a new QB and new offensive line. Last year Denver played mistake free low risk football with Manning under center. The QB position in this system is just asked to not lose the game opposed to go out and win the game for us. I am not sure that this Broncos team has the players to not make mistakes this early in the season. The Panthers front seven is nasty and should keep this Broncos Offense in check. On the offensive side of the ball for the Panthers there is no drop off this year plus they get a healthy Kelvin Benjamin back to spread the field. Cam Newton is looking for redemption and it?s kind of weird that he can do that just one game after the Super Bowl. Some QB?s never get the shot to go against the team that beat them again. I don?t expect six Carolina turnovers like in that Super Bowl. This team moved the ball well against Denver but just didn?t have the nerves to be in that spotlight and it showed. Denver partied all off season while Carolina thought about Denver all off season. If Newton can?t beat out Trevor Siemian in his first start then so be it, but Carolina is the more polished team to start this season.
In the Sights, NCAA Saturday?
Troy Calhoun?s Air Force Falcons could be interesting as hell this season. They have a run/pass QB in Nate Romine, who is healthy again and brings senior smarts; in Jacobi Owens there is a RB that should have his third-straight 1,000 yard season; and the offense gets balanced out by the best group of receivers ever at the Academy, with 6-4 Jalen Robinette having a chance to make NFL draft boards, and WR Ronald Cleveland and TE Ryan Reffit each catching 62-yard TD passes last week (Tyler Williams also caught a pass for 41 yards, but did not score on the play). Meanwhile the defense is as experienced as they come, with 10 senior starters, and a junior at the other position that is backed up by a senior. The schedule is such that there is an honest chance to be 11-0 when they host Boise State the day after Thanksgiving (how much fun would that be). Hence why I want to buy in early, and with Georgia State ripe to wilt in the second half, it is #348 Air Force (2:00 Eastern) in play this week, with -18 available in the Thursday morning trading, and value extending up to -20.
Georgia State got worn down in the second half last week, which can happen to a program of that level. The problem is that it happened vs. Ball State. The Cardinals are not a physical team, yet they pounded their way for 325 rushing yards, more than double the 153 they averaged last year, and likely double what they will average the rest of this season. The issue was two-fold, without program-turner Nick Arbuckle at QB (The Sun Belt Player of the Year in 2015, when he threw for over 4,000 yards) the Panther offense could not stay on the field, and a defense that was bending even when fresh finally broke.
HC Trent Miles was blunt about it - ?Now you are seeing what it?s like, life without Nick Arbuckle. We didn?t do anything on offense to help move the ball and protect our defense. ? They ran the ball down our throat. Our defense was out on the field for a long period of time.?
And again, that was at home vs. Ball State. Now it is the altitude of Colorado Springs and an offense that was difficult enough to defend when it was purely a run package, but now much more so because of the way the Falcons can spread the field and throw. Even with Romine injured for almost all of 2015 Air Force finished #15 in the nation in Pass Efficiency (you could win a lot of bar bets with that), and now that he is back the balance can be special, not just because of his physical abilities, but the way that his experience opens the tool box. This note, from the Colorado Springs Gazette, lays it out well - Offensive coordinator Mike Thiessen said Romine's presnap checks resulted in him putting the team in the correct play about 14 out of 15 times.
Georgia State will struggle to keep up with that offense early, but it is in the second half when this one should break open. Miles faces the awful task of having his team play this one, and then go to Wisconsin next Saturday for another physical pounding, and as such he has to spread the snaps out across his roster, likely not chasing all that hard from behind. Meanwhile Air Force is off next week, so after coasting in a sloppy opener vs. Abilene Christian, there is nothing preventing the Falcons from going hard for the full 60 minutes here.
07:05 PM MLB [904] Pittsburgh Pirates -162 ( D Straily - R / I Nova)
10:10 PM MLB [908] San Diego Padres -134 ( J Hoffman - R / C Richard)
10:10 PM MLB [913] Texas Rangers +108 (Holland/Walker)
07:05 PM MLB [902] Washington Nationals -220 ( A Asher - R / A Cole)
1 unit bet pays 15 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 16-153, -24.49 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....and another long dry spell, hit five teamer on July 23rd....yet another long dry spell, hit four teamer on Aug 17...hit nice daytime five teamer on Aug 18....won small daytime three teamer on Aug 24.....won daytime and evening parlays on Sept 7...yesterday!
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
After about two years of hanging out with the sidelines (they are super cool, alright?) Alex Cobb finally got his chance on the bump again and astounded with a line of 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks against the Jays. He had a rough first inning with Josh Donaldson getting a double after Kevin Kiermaier lost the ball in center, then locating a bad heater to Edwin Encarnacion. However, he settled down a ton and looked like classic Cobb after that. Just to refresh your memory, classic is a 2.87 ERA, 56.2% GB rate, 8.06 K/9 and 2.54 BB/9 as he limited hard contact to just 24.2% across 166.1 innings in 2014. Does this mean that I want to roll with Cobb for the foreseeable future? Yes it does. He gets the Yankees next and while I'm not loving his start in Toronto, he then gets the Yanks, White Sox and Rangers. That's three of his next four starts against favorable opponents. Sign me up.
Tampa Bay +123 over N.Y. YANKEES
After sweeping the Blue Jays to pull within a reasonable distance of making the playoffs, the Yankees stock is once again too high and that makes us instant sellers here. Meanwhile, the Rays are the only team in the AL East out of the playoff picture but the Rays are as good as any of them and they?ll have a huge impact on who gets in and who does not. Tampa is loving the impact they?re having and they?re also loving the fear they instill in the opposition. Now they?ll face C.C. Sabathia.
Sabathia has 13 quality starts in 25 attempts this season. However, at the age of 35 and with another 150 innings under his belt this year, he is not to be trusted as the chalk. In his last start, Sabathia posted a 1.50 ERA in six innings but it was all luck, as he whiffed just two batters. Most of the balls were hard hit and right at folks, which led to an xERA of 6.36. These skills aren't terrible but Sabathia's overall trajectory is still headed in the wrong direction. Sabathia knows enough about pitching to take advantage of the first pitch strike frequently but with a diminished arsenal and facing players that have seen plenty of him over the years, the risk is too high. The Yanks come in as the chalk but we?re suggesting we get the better team and starter here.
Alex Cobb returned to the mound against the Blue Jays last week after missing almost two full years with injuries. All Cobb did in his return was pitch five full innings while striking out seven Blue Jays. Cobb allowed two runs in the first inning but was near flawless afterwards with those seven K?s and inducing 67% grounders. Cobb threw 84 pitches against Toronto so there is a good chance he?ll be stretched out a bit more here. In 2014, Cobb pitched to an ERA of 2.87 in 27 starts. In 2013, he pitched to a 2.76 ERA in 22 starts. The Rays have a habit of producing aces. Next up is Alex Cobb, who was on the verge of being elite before the injuries. Back in 2014, Cobb returned from the disabled list with a vengeance. This kid has a bulldog mentality with the talent and will behind it. We are going to back him with confidence down the stretch because the window to buy low will close very quickly.
Over is 14-3-1 in TEX last 18 overall.
Over is 8-1 in SEA last 9 overall.
Over is 7-1 in SEA last 8 games following a win.
Over is 16-5 in the last 21 TX/SEA meetings.
Texas vs. Seattle
Pick: Texas
The Texas Rangers hold a comfortable 8 1/2-game lead over the Houston Astros in the AL West and also own a two-game lead over the Indians for the best overall record in the AL, which would earn them home field advantage in every postseason series (AL won this year?s All Star game, so AL winner also gets the home field edge in the Fall Classic). As for the 71-68 Seattle Mariners, they may be on the verge of looking towards the future. The Mariners are hopelessly 11 1/2 games behind the Rangers in the AL West and now sit five games behind Baltimore in the wild-card race, with the Tigers, Astros, Yankees and Royals between them and Baltimore.
Derek Holland (7-6, 4.57 ERA) takes the mound for Texas and Taijuan Walker (4-10, 4.60 ERA) for Seattle in the final contest of this four-game series at Safeco. Texas won the first two games of the series while scoring 24 runs but Seattle won last night, 8-3. Holland has won back-to-back starts and has allowed just three runs on 10 hits over 12 innings during that stretch. He now owns a 2.00 ERA in three starts since returning from a two-month absence because of a shoulder injury and historically has fared well vs Seattle, going 12-5 with a 3.56 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 24 career appearances (20 starts / team is 12-8 ).
Seattle?s Walker opened the season as one of the organization?s top prospects (as well as the team?s No. 2 starter!) but has just FOUR wins on the season, while Seattle has gone 7-13 (minus-$825) in his 20 starting assignments in 2016. What?s even more troubling is Walker serving up three HRs and getting torched for six runs (five earned) on six hits in two-thirds of an inning while losing to the Los Angeles Angels in his last outing. That leaves him 0-4 with a 9.55 ERA over his last five starts (team is 1-4) and he?s given up 23 HRs in only 103.2 innings of work this season.
DENVER +3 over Carolina
When going against public opinion in these prime time games, it is almost always recommended that you wait until later in the day to pull the trigger because inevitably, a better price will be had. The number here is 3, which is a key number that books generally don?t like to come off so instead of the line moving to +3?, the vigor will (likely) move instead in our favor. We will therefore wait to pull the trigger here until after dinner. We'll update this then.
It?s a nice way to open the season with a rematch of Super Bowl 50 that was won by the Broncos 24-10 in a defensive showing for the ages. This time around there will be no Peyton Manning and the Panthers will get back Kelvin Benjamin after he sat out the entire 2015 season. Carolina will also be seeking revenge for that embarrassing SB loss that was punctuated with the all too brief press conference appearance by Cam Newton.
What we know for sure is that Carolina was 15-0 last season prior to losing its final regular season game. We also know they destroyed the Seahawks in the playoffs before destroying the Cardinals in the NFC Championship game, 49-15. This is that same team that played in those two games save for the loss of CB Josh Norman. Combine all that with the revenge factor and we can understand the appeal the Panthers have here but we?re not buying any of it. Perhaps it was Carolina that greatly overachieved last year. Carolina had the NFL?s easiest schedule and they took advantage of it by snowballing it into a ton of momentum. This year they?ll have no such luxury and it just might be very difficult to bounce back from such a humbling Super Bowl defeat. Last season, Cam Newton had a career year in which he finished eighth in Passer Rating, but missed the top 10 in the other major passing stats including yards-per-game (16th) and completion percentage (28th) and even though he finished fifth in touchdown passes, a lot of those passes travelled less than 10 yards in the air during blowouts. Now the Panthers go from a 4-point favorite in the Super Bowl played at a neutral site to a three-point favorite in Denver. If the Broncos felt disrespected in the Super Bowl, it is likely pale in comparison to how disrespected they feel here about being a dog in their own barn after winning the Super Bowl.
Another reason and perhaps the biggest of them all that this market is having trouble backing the host is that they have made it out to be Cam Newton versus Denver QB, Trevor Siemian but let us say this. The Broncos let Brock Osweiler walk out the door. They couldn?t have cared less despite grooming him. Denver beat the Panthers in the SB by 14 points with a crippled Peyton Manning that had trouble throwing 10 yards. Mark Sanchez could not beat out Trevor Siemian for the starting role in Week 1. Siemian was a seventh round afterthought in 2015 but outplayed Sanchez during camp and here we are. Paxton Lynch, the Broncos #1 draft pick is in the on-deck circle should Siemian fail. It is hard to imagine any QB being worse than Peyton Manning was in the Super Bowl. Denver?s defense won that game and there is nothing that suggests they can?t win this one too. If it means anything, Carolina looked awful in the preseason and it could very well be them and not the Broncos that suffer a severe hangover from last year. Take the points.
Panthers -3
We waited months for this day and we get a Super Bowl rematch. The Broncos Defense is going to carry this team and really this is the last standing elite defense in the NFL. Denver is going to be just fine this year because of the play on the defensive side of the ball, but there is going to be major growing pains with a new QB and new offensive line. Last year Denver played mistake free low risk football with Manning under center. The QB position in this system is just asked to not lose the game opposed to go out and win the game for us. I am not sure that this Broncos team has the players to not make mistakes this early in the season. The Panthers front seven is nasty and should keep this Broncos Offense in check. On the offensive side of the ball for the Panthers there is no drop off this year plus they get a healthy Kelvin Benjamin back to spread the field. Cam Newton is looking for redemption and it?s kind of weird that he can do that just one game after the Super Bowl. Some QB?s never get the shot to go against the team that beat them again. I don?t expect six Carolina turnovers like in that Super Bowl. This team moved the ball well against Denver but just didn?t have the nerves to be in that spotlight and it showed. Denver partied all off season while Carolina thought about Denver all off season. If Newton can?t beat out Trevor Siemian in his first start then so be it, but Carolina is the more polished team to start this season.
In the Sights, NCAA Saturday?
Troy Calhoun?s Air Force Falcons could be interesting as hell this season. They have a run/pass QB in Nate Romine, who is healthy again and brings senior smarts; in Jacobi Owens there is a RB that should have his third-straight 1,000 yard season; and the offense gets balanced out by the best group of receivers ever at the Academy, with 6-4 Jalen Robinette having a chance to make NFL draft boards, and WR Ronald Cleveland and TE Ryan Reffit each catching 62-yard TD passes last week (Tyler Williams also caught a pass for 41 yards, but did not score on the play). Meanwhile the defense is as experienced as they come, with 10 senior starters, and a junior at the other position that is backed up by a senior. The schedule is such that there is an honest chance to be 11-0 when they host Boise State the day after Thanksgiving (how much fun would that be). Hence why I want to buy in early, and with Georgia State ripe to wilt in the second half, it is #348 Air Force (2:00 Eastern) in play this week, with -18 available in the Thursday morning trading, and value extending up to -20.
Georgia State got worn down in the second half last week, which can happen to a program of that level. The problem is that it happened vs. Ball State. The Cardinals are not a physical team, yet they pounded their way for 325 rushing yards, more than double the 153 they averaged last year, and likely double what they will average the rest of this season. The issue was two-fold, without program-turner Nick Arbuckle at QB (The Sun Belt Player of the Year in 2015, when he threw for over 4,000 yards) the Panther offense could not stay on the field, and a defense that was bending even when fresh finally broke.
HC Trent Miles was blunt about it - ?Now you are seeing what it?s like, life without Nick Arbuckle. We didn?t do anything on offense to help move the ball and protect our defense. ? They ran the ball down our throat. Our defense was out on the field for a long period of time.?
And again, that was at home vs. Ball State. Now it is the altitude of Colorado Springs and an offense that was difficult enough to defend when it was purely a run package, but now much more so because of the way the Falcons can spread the field and throw. Even with Romine injured for almost all of 2015 Air Force finished #15 in the nation in Pass Efficiency (you could win a lot of bar bets with that), and now that he is back the balance can be special, not just because of his physical abilities, but the way that his experience opens the tool box. This note, from the Colorado Springs Gazette, lays it out well - Offensive coordinator Mike Thiessen said Romine's presnap checks resulted in him putting the team in the correct play about 14 out of 15 times.
Georgia State will struggle to keep up with that offense early, but it is in the second half when this one should break open. Miles faces the awful task of having his team play this one, and then go to Wisconsin next Saturday for another physical pounding, and as such he has to spread the snaps out across his roster, likely not chasing all that hard from behind. Meanwhile Air Force is off next week, so after coasting in a sloppy opener vs. Abilene Christian, there is nothing preventing the Falcons from going hard for the full 60 minutes here.
