08:25 PM NFL [102] TOTAL u41-110 (NY JETS vrs BUF BILLS)
07:05 PM MLB [952] Philadelphia Phillies -123 ( C Kuhl - R / J Eickhoff)
08:05 PM MLB [954] Chicago Cubs -225 ( J Nelson - R / M Montgomery - L )
09:40 PM MLB [955] Los Angeles Dodgers -210 ( R Hill - L / A Bradley)
07:10 PM MLB [966] TOTAL u8-110 (New York Yankees vrs Boston Red Sox) (Tanaka/Rodriguez)
1 unit bet pays 13 ....betdsi line ... yet again, missed a (dog!) parlay yesterday by one leg..
MLB parlays: 16-158, -29.49 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....and another long dry spell, hit five teamer on July 23rd....yet another long dry spell, hit four teamer on Aug 17...hit nice daytime five teamer on Aug 18....won small daytime three teamer on Aug 24.....won daytime and evening parlays on Sept 7...
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
:0074
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Baltimore Orioles are under is 8-0 in Gallardo?s last 8 home starts, under is 21-5 in their last 26 home games...Under is 24-6 in BAL last 30 games following a win...Over is 28-10 in TB last 38 overall....TB are 2-14 in last 16 road series openers
NYY are 7-3 to the under in Tanaka's last 10 starts overall...Under is 16-5 in Rodriguezs last 21 starts overall.
Over is 38-14-1 in ARI last 53 home games...Over is 45-18-2 in ARI last 65 overall.
Under is 16-5-1 in TOR last 22 on grass...Under is 15-7 in TOR last 22 road games...Under is 19-7-1 in LAA last 27 on grass.
Under is 9-3 in SF last 12 overall.....and 7-3 last 10 STL overall, 6-0 last 6 overall...
Chicago is 21-3 in home series openers...
The Pirates skipped Kuhl's turn on Saturday following a rocky outing Monday against St. Louis (2 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 3 BB). Kuhl has logged 134 1/3 innings this year between Triple-A and the Major Leagues and may have been dealing with some fatigue.
In the Sights, Thursday MLB?
There is a major gap in enthusiasm in the way that Pittsburgh and Philadelphia are playing right now, the former having seen their Wild Card hopes expire, while the Phillies have a lot of young faces working hard to build into 2017. With Jared Eickhoff continuing to be an under-rated notion that brings solid value to get #952 Philadelphia (7:05 Eastern) into play, with -110 available in the early trading, and this one good up to -120.
Eickhoff has been written about here a few times previously, a guy not bringing sex appeal as a high-ceiling prospect, and also not exciting folks by blowing hitters away with his strikeout counts. What he has done is throw strikes, an impressive 2.1 BB/9, and his frame and delivery also bring an element that folks don?t always recognize ? his 13.4% IFFB, or pop-ups if you prefer, rates #10 in the Major?s this season. Eickhoff shows no signs of wearing down, working to a 1.50 tune across his first two September starts.
Meanwhile Chad Kuhl could struggle to find a rhythm tonight, working for the first time in 10 days, the last outing being an ugly one vs. the Cardinals in which he was removed after two innings (58 pitches). We also may not see the best Pirate lineup behind him, a rare case of a night game before traveling into a new series, and at this stage Clint Hurdle is certainly allowed to sit a key cog or two
Gallardo was given a longer layoff as the O's currently have six starters. The righty, who has a 5.44 ERA, will try to state his case to stay in the rotation in the opener against Tampa Bay.
Baltimore -134
Gallardo gets the go for Baltimore and he has stepped up his game the last two efforts...I'm not very high on him, but he gets a second look at the Rays in less then a week....He had a pretty good game last time out Vs. Tampa....He went 5 full and he gave up 5 hits and only 1ER....He should feel good that coming into this one with confidence...He also comes off a win which has been a big struggle for Gallardo...Big reason I'm backing the O's is because I'm very low on Snell for Tampa...He doesn't last long and he ends up in some bad jams at times...Walks can be an issue and his strikeouts are rather low for the amount of pitches he throws..He struggles to find the zone and that will hurt him against a deep team like Baltimore...O's haven't had a chance to see Snell yet, but I'm not to worried with his recent form and starting on the road...Baltimore needs to stay on course here as the AL WC is razor thin...Baltimore at home gets the call...I won't be shocked if this goes to near -150..
Yankees/Red Sox Under 8?
The Red Sox were held scoreless in Wednesday's 1-0 loss to the Orioles. That's now 2 straight games where the Red Sox offense has failed to produce. The Yankees were also shutout yesterday and have now scored a total of just 7 runs in their last 4 games.
I look for both offense to continue their struggles at the plate on Thursday. New York will send out their ace in Masahiro Tanaka, who is quietly having a really good season. Tanaka is 13-4 with a 3.09 ERA and 1.066 WHIP in 29 starts. He's been even better on the road than at home, posting a 2.27 ERA and 1.044 WHIP in 14 road starts. He's already faced New York twice this season and both times he dominated. In the two starts combined, he allowing 3 runs on 9 hits with 12 strikeouts in 12 2/3 innings.
Boston counters here with Eduardo Rodriguez, who comes into this one working on two really good starts. Rodriguez went 8 scoreless at Oakland on 9/4 and followed it up by allowing just 2 earned runs in 6 innings at Toronto in his last outing. Most importantly, he's owed the Yankees, going 4-1 with a 1.88 ERA and 1.096 WHIP in 6 career starts against them. He's faced them twice this season and both teams allowed just 1 run in 7 innings (only 7 hits). Rodriguez has a way of saving his best for division opponents, which is why the UNDER is 11-3 in his last 14 starts against the AL East.
N.Y. Yankees +109 over BOSTON
Yankees/Red Sox in late September with something on the line means big crowds and plenty of excitement but anytime we can take back a tag with Masahiro Tanaka you can pencil us in almost every time. Not many have been as successful pitching with a partially-torn ulnar collateral ligament as Tanaka has been since he was diagnosed in July of 2014, this perhaps due to his vast arsenal of pitches. Tanaka has filthy stuff and he catches the Red Sox after they scored just three times combined at home against Baltimore over the past two nights. Timing can sometimes be everything. Tanaka has a BB/K split of 4/32 over his past 33 innings. His swing and miss rate in his last two starts was an off-the-charts 20%. When he?s not striking out batters, he?s inducing groundballs with an elite rate of 52%. Tanaka is the straight goods but he?s not priced like it here, which makes us instant buyers against Eduardo Rodriguez.
Former top prospect Eduardo Rodriguez finished the 2015 season with a bang, throwing four consecutive dominant starts with a 2.22 ERA in September. But a dislocated kneecap kept him on the shelf until late May and then he was quickly demoted to the minors after posting an 8.59 ERA in six starts. He did well in the minors before being recalled but he?s not thriving at this level just yet. Over his last 23 innings, Rodriguez has walked 10 batters while striking out 18. His xERA of 4.70 since his recall is much more revealing than his 2.70 surface ERA over that same span. Rodriguez?s 33%/22%/45% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile is one that relies on a lot of good fortune for success. Armed with a mid-90s heater and a highly-regarded change-up, Rodriguez employs two plus pitches. However, not many starters can survive the rotation with just two reliable pitches and that?s where Rodriguez is now. Until he develops a strong third pitch that he can rely on, he?s a big risk spotting prices and he certainly does not warrant being favored over one of the best starters in the game.
New York Yankees +100 1st Half
Betances and Clippard have pitched in two straight games so let?s take the BP?s out of the equation here. Tanaka is my 25th ranked starter who is pitching at a top-10 level over the last 30-days. His 2.9 e-ERA over this span is 2 runs lower than Rodriguez? 4.8 e-ERA mark, which consequently matches his year-long number. This is my 157th ranked starter. The key for Tanaka is that his best pitch is a splitter, the only pitch that Boston?s offense struggles against (they?re bottom-10 against it). I?ll back the Yankees for the first 5 here, and hopefully Tanaka is ?on? his game once again.
Hill (3-0, 0.00 ERA) threw seven perfect innings against the Miami Marlins in his last start but was pulled by Los Angeles manager Dave Roberts for several reasons, including a familiar issue on Hill's pitching hand.
"There was heat on his index finger," Roberts said. "It was starting to get tender."
New York Jets -1
Revenge is usually a better motivator in college than in pro but this game is an exception. The Jets lost both games to the Bills last season and the 2nd one was a killer since it happened in week 17 and kept the Jets out of the playoffs. Look for a super motivated Jets team here especially off of their tough 1 point loss on Sunday missing an extra point and a short field goal.
BUFFALO -104 over N.Y. Jets
The Bills opened up as a 3-point favorite, which appeared to be a bad number, as the sharps stepped in and hammered it early. Money hasn?t stopped coming in on the Jets and we can understand why. The Jets are healthy and they looked much better against the Bengals than the Bills looked against the Ravens. The Jets opponent last week was also much tougher than Buffalo?s opponent. We also expect that the Jets will be hammered all day by this anxious market. You would be hard pressed to find one media source or person that is siding with the host tonight. That should be a huge warning flag to everyone. We also know that putting too much emphasis on one game is a costly mistake that many will fall trap to in Week 2 so let?s not get carried away here.
Truth be told, Ryan Fitzpatrick is an extremely flawed quarterback and no one knows that better than Rex Ryan. In two games against Ryan's Bills last season, Fitzpatrick averaged 187 yards per game with four passing TDs and five interceptions. In his 17 games as a starter for the Jets, Fitzpatrick has gone over 210 yards a mere six times so do you really want to back his team on the road in a short week against a team that knows him so well? We don?t. It?s not easy to bet against what your eyes are telling you. We all watched the Jets compete hard last week and nearly knock off one of the powers while the Bills could not move five yards against the Ravens. Lost in those results was that New York was torched through the air to the tune of 336 yards while the Ravens only mustered 225 yards through the air on the Bills defense and only 83 yards on 28 carries on the ground. Buffalo figures to be much better this week while the Jets do not, as they played their hearts out in a home loss last week. We?re not as optimistic as others about the Jets chances to come in here and defeat a team that has dominated this series recently. Rex Ryan?s main focus is to defeat the Jets and he?s been able to do so with outstanding efforts against them. Expect nothing less here.
Houston @ Cincinnati
Pick: Under 64.5
Will he or won?t he is the question for both Houston head coach Tom Herman and Cincinnati head coach Tommy Tuberville. The ?he? is Cougars quarterback Greg Ward Jr. who suffered a minor shoulder injury in Houston?s season-opening victory over Oklahoma. Ward did not play last week as Houston beat up on FCS opponent Lamar, 42-0. The Cougars quarterback, one of just two players to rush for over 1,000 yards and throw for more than 2,000 last season, has practiced and, for all intents and purposes, appears that he will start on Thursday night.
Tuberville and the Bearcats have faced Ward in each of the last three seasons. Last year, the Cougars beat Cincinnati 33-30 on its way to capturing the American Athletic Conference title. The previous two seasons though, it was the Bearcats that got the best of Houston. Tuberville is hoping that his squad is up to the task.
Cincinnati beat Purdue last Saturday, its first win over a Big Ten opponent on the road in 59 years. The Bearcats will have a slight advantage playing at home in Nippert Stadium. Tuberville?s offense will rely on sophomore quarterback Hayden Moore, who has thrown for 510 yards and five touchdowns in two games. The running game is solid too, with Tion Green (150 yards) and Mike Boone (113) leading the charge.
The Cougars, the first Top 10 team to visit Cincinnati since West Virginia back in 2007, are well-balanced on offense averaging 225 yards passing and 235 on the ground. What makes Houston a College Football Playoff contender is its defense, likely the best in the AAC. Cincinnati is another step in the Cougars quest to qualify for the CFP as a Group of Five representative. Any loss along the way will eliminate Herman?s squad from contention.
In the Sights, Saturday NCAA?
I noted above how unusual this Saturday board is for today?s theme because there are a multitude of games that fit the pattern. In each of these there is a favorite that will absolutely take the game seriously, and we get the bonus in all four that this time the underdog is not likely to throw their best efforts into the fray. Here is the day that many of you will have been looking for ? the chance for your store to profile you are a ?square? early in the season, just one of those recreational guys that likes to bet big chalk because they don?t really understand the nuances of handicapping.
Instead of narrowing the list, I will let them fly?
#144 Kansas State (2:30 Eastern; note the time change). The Wildcats made a good account of themselves at Stanford, the defense playing quite well after needing a couple of series to get into their flow. That unit gets a major upgrade with the return of safety Dante Barnett, much like I believe the offense benefits from the return of QB Jesse Ertz, who will be much better than he was in the opener now that he has that game vs. a tough Cardinal defense under his belt, an outing in which he was also limited by leg cramps. There is no reason for State to not bring the full focus here ? there have been two weeks off to prepare, and on deck is lowly Missouri State, a far lesser opponent than FAU. Meanwhile the Owls only show up for a paycheck ? they threw their best efforts into that regional battle vs. Miami last week, a big one for them because of how many local kids are on the roster, and instead of chasing in the second half will hold back for next week?s home game vs. Ball State, when there is a legitimate chance to win.
#160 Kentucky (4:00 Eastern; note the time change). There might not be a coach anywhere this week that needs not just a win, but a big win, more than Mark Stoops. Hence no chance of taking New Mexico State lightly, and in this instance I expect little from the Aggies. That rally to beat rival New Mexico last week used up a lot of energy and emotion, and note that they have not responded well after facing the Lobos ? the fifth-year seniors are 0-4 SU and ATS in the ensuing game, losing to the spread by 44.5 points in the process. Having beaten New Mexico last week, and with the conference opener at Troy on deck, they have little reason to show much here.
#178 N. C. State (6:00 Eastern). The Wolfpack have a chance to vent some frustrations after their loss at East Carolina, and they are entitled to do it for the full 60 minutes here, with a bye week on deck. With Dave Doeren 13-7 ATS laying double figures (6-3 at State), we can see that he does not mind going for the jugular in such a setting. Meanwhile the Monarchs are another underdog that won?t bring their best ? there is a home conference game vs. UTSA next week that they have a legitimate chance to win, so staying fresh and healthy for that one is more important than chasing this one from behind.
#212 Washington State (2:00 Eastern; note the time change). Plenty enough has been said about the expected focus from the Cougars, but consider how disinterested the Vandals could be if this breaks open early. They are in their second of three straight road games, and next week?s trip to UNLV offers them the best opportunity to win a game. Paul Petrino will likely adjust his player rotation towards that purpose, rather than getting the best possible scoreboard result here in a game his team has little chance to win.
So there we have it ? four big favorites that will take these weak opponents seriously, and in this instance a strong case can be made that none of the four underdogs will produce their best effort.
07:05 PM MLB [952] Philadelphia Phillies -123 ( C Kuhl - R / J Eickhoff)
08:05 PM MLB [954] Chicago Cubs -225 ( J Nelson - R / M Montgomery - L )
09:40 PM MLB [955] Los Angeles Dodgers -210 ( R Hill - L / A Bradley)
07:10 PM MLB [966] TOTAL u8-110 (New York Yankees vrs Boston Red Sox) (Tanaka/Rodriguez)
1 unit bet pays 13 ....betdsi line ... yet again, missed a (dog!) parlay yesterday by one leg..
MLB parlays: 16-158, -29.49 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....and another long dry spell, hit five teamer on July 23rd....yet another long dry spell, hit four teamer on Aug 17...hit nice daytime five teamer on Aug 18....won small daytime three teamer on Aug 24.....won daytime and evening parlays on Sept 7...
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Baltimore Orioles are under is 8-0 in Gallardo?s last 8 home starts, under is 21-5 in their last 26 home games...Under is 24-6 in BAL last 30 games following a win...Over is 28-10 in TB last 38 overall....TB are 2-14 in last 16 road series openers
NYY are 7-3 to the under in Tanaka's last 10 starts overall...Under is 16-5 in Rodriguezs last 21 starts overall.
Over is 38-14-1 in ARI last 53 home games...Over is 45-18-2 in ARI last 65 overall.
Under is 16-5-1 in TOR last 22 on grass...Under is 15-7 in TOR last 22 road games...Under is 19-7-1 in LAA last 27 on grass.
Under is 9-3 in SF last 12 overall.....and 7-3 last 10 STL overall, 6-0 last 6 overall...
Chicago is 21-3 in home series openers...
The Pirates skipped Kuhl's turn on Saturday following a rocky outing Monday against St. Louis (2 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 3 BB). Kuhl has logged 134 1/3 innings this year between Triple-A and the Major Leagues and may have been dealing with some fatigue.
In the Sights, Thursday MLB?
There is a major gap in enthusiasm in the way that Pittsburgh and Philadelphia are playing right now, the former having seen their Wild Card hopes expire, while the Phillies have a lot of young faces working hard to build into 2017. With Jared Eickhoff continuing to be an under-rated notion that brings solid value to get #952 Philadelphia (7:05 Eastern) into play, with -110 available in the early trading, and this one good up to -120.
Eickhoff has been written about here a few times previously, a guy not bringing sex appeal as a high-ceiling prospect, and also not exciting folks by blowing hitters away with his strikeout counts. What he has done is throw strikes, an impressive 2.1 BB/9, and his frame and delivery also bring an element that folks don?t always recognize ? his 13.4% IFFB, or pop-ups if you prefer, rates #10 in the Major?s this season. Eickhoff shows no signs of wearing down, working to a 1.50 tune across his first two September starts.
Meanwhile Chad Kuhl could struggle to find a rhythm tonight, working for the first time in 10 days, the last outing being an ugly one vs. the Cardinals in which he was removed after two innings (58 pitches). We also may not see the best Pirate lineup behind him, a rare case of a night game before traveling into a new series, and at this stage Clint Hurdle is certainly allowed to sit a key cog or two
Gallardo was given a longer layoff as the O's currently have six starters. The righty, who has a 5.44 ERA, will try to state his case to stay in the rotation in the opener against Tampa Bay.
Baltimore -134
Gallardo gets the go for Baltimore and he has stepped up his game the last two efforts...I'm not very high on him, but he gets a second look at the Rays in less then a week....He had a pretty good game last time out Vs. Tampa....He went 5 full and he gave up 5 hits and only 1ER....He should feel good that coming into this one with confidence...He also comes off a win which has been a big struggle for Gallardo...Big reason I'm backing the O's is because I'm very low on Snell for Tampa...He doesn't last long and he ends up in some bad jams at times...Walks can be an issue and his strikeouts are rather low for the amount of pitches he throws..He struggles to find the zone and that will hurt him against a deep team like Baltimore...O's haven't had a chance to see Snell yet, but I'm not to worried with his recent form and starting on the road...Baltimore needs to stay on course here as the AL WC is razor thin...Baltimore at home gets the call...I won't be shocked if this goes to near -150..
Yankees/Red Sox Under 8?
The Red Sox were held scoreless in Wednesday's 1-0 loss to the Orioles. That's now 2 straight games where the Red Sox offense has failed to produce. The Yankees were also shutout yesterday and have now scored a total of just 7 runs in their last 4 games.
I look for both offense to continue their struggles at the plate on Thursday. New York will send out their ace in Masahiro Tanaka, who is quietly having a really good season. Tanaka is 13-4 with a 3.09 ERA and 1.066 WHIP in 29 starts. He's been even better on the road than at home, posting a 2.27 ERA and 1.044 WHIP in 14 road starts. He's already faced New York twice this season and both times he dominated. In the two starts combined, he allowing 3 runs on 9 hits with 12 strikeouts in 12 2/3 innings.
Boston counters here with Eduardo Rodriguez, who comes into this one working on two really good starts. Rodriguez went 8 scoreless at Oakland on 9/4 and followed it up by allowing just 2 earned runs in 6 innings at Toronto in his last outing. Most importantly, he's owed the Yankees, going 4-1 with a 1.88 ERA and 1.096 WHIP in 6 career starts against them. He's faced them twice this season and both teams allowed just 1 run in 7 innings (only 7 hits). Rodriguez has a way of saving his best for division opponents, which is why the UNDER is 11-3 in his last 14 starts against the AL East.
N.Y. Yankees +109 over BOSTON
Yankees/Red Sox in late September with something on the line means big crowds and plenty of excitement but anytime we can take back a tag with Masahiro Tanaka you can pencil us in almost every time. Not many have been as successful pitching with a partially-torn ulnar collateral ligament as Tanaka has been since he was diagnosed in July of 2014, this perhaps due to his vast arsenal of pitches. Tanaka has filthy stuff and he catches the Red Sox after they scored just three times combined at home against Baltimore over the past two nights. Timing can sometimes be everything. Tanaka has a BB/K split of 4/32 over his past 33 innings. His swing and miss rate in his last two starts was an off-the-charts 20%. When he?s not striking out batters, he?s inducing groundballs with an elite rate of 52%. Tanaka is the straight goods but he?s not priced like it here, which makes us instant buyers against Eduardo Rodriguez.
Former top prospect Eduardo Rodriguez finished the 2015 season with a bang, throwing four consecutive dominant starts with a 2.22 ERA in September. But a dislocated kneecap kept him on the shelf until late May and then he was quickly demoted to the minors after posting an 8.59 ERA in six starts. He did well in the minors before being recalled but he?s not thriving at this level just yet. Over his last 23 innings, Rodriguez has walked 10 batters while striking out 18. His xERA of 4.70 since his recall is much more revealing than his 2.70 surface ERA over that same span. Rodriguez?s 33%/22%/45% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile is one that relies on a lot of good fortune for success. Armed with a mid-90s heater and a highly-regarded change-up, Rodriguez employs two plus pitches. However, not many starters can survive the rotation with just two reliable pitches and that?s where Rodriguez is now. Until he develops a strong third pitch that he can rely on, he?s a big risk spotting prices and he certainly does not warrant being favored over one of the best starters in the game.
New York Yankees +100 1st Half
Betances and Clippard have pitched in two straight games so let?s take the BP?s out of the equation here. Tanaka is my 25th ranked starter who is pitching at a top-10 level over the last 30-days. His 2.9 e-ERA over this span is 2 runs lower than Rodriguez? 4.8 e-ERA mark, which consequently matches his year-long number. This is my 157th ranked starter. The key for Tanaka is that his best pitch is a splitter, the only pitch that Boston?s offense struggles against (they?re bottom-10 against it). I?ll back the Yankees for the first 5 here, and hopefully Tanaka is ?on? his game once again.
Hill (3-0, 0.00 ERA) threw seven perfect innings against the Miami Marlins in his last start but was pulled by Los Angeles manager Dave Roberts for several reasons, including a familiar issue on Hill's pitching hand.
"There was heat on his index finger," Roberts said. "It was starting to get tender."
New York Jets -1
Revenge is usually a better motivator in college than in pro but this game is an exception. The Jets lost both games to the Bills last season and the 2nd one was a killer since it happened in week 17 and kept the Jets out of the playoffs. Look for a super motivated Jets team here especially off of their tough 1 point loss on Sunday missing an extra point and a short field goal.
BUFFALO -104 over N.Y. Jets
The Bills opened up as a 3-point favorite, which appeared to be a bad number, as the sharps stepped in and hammered it early. Money hasn?t stopped coming in on the Jets and we can understand why. The Jets are healthy and they looked much better against the Bengals than the Bills looked against the Ravens. The Jets opponent last week was also much tougher than Buffalo?s opponent. We also expect that the Jets will be hammered all day by this anxious market. You would be hard pressed to find one media source or person that is siding with the host tonight. That should be a huge warning flag to everyone. We also know that putting too much emphasis on one game is a costly mistake that many will fall trap to in Week 2 so let?s not get carried away here.
Truth be told, Ryan Fitzpatrick is an extremely flawed quarterback and no one knows that better than Rex Ryan. In two games against Ryan's Bills last season, Fitzpatrick averaged 187 yards per game with four passing TDs and five interceptions. In his 17 games as a starter for the Jets, Fitzpatrick has gone over 210 yards a mere six times so do you really want to back his team on the road in a short week against a team that knows him so well? We don?t. It?s not easy to bet against what your eyes are telling you. We all watched the Jets compete hard last week and nearly knock off one of the powers while the Bills could not move five yards against the Ravens. Lost in those results was that New York was torched through the air to the tune of 336 yards while the Ravens only mustered 225 yards through the air on the Bills defense and only 83 yards on 28 carries on the ground. Buffalo figures to be much better this week while the Jets do not, as they played their hearts out in a home loss last week. We?re not as optimistic as others about the Jets chances to come in here and defeat a team that has dominated this series recently. Rex Ryan?s main focus is to defeat the Jets and he?s been able to do so with outstanding efforts against them. Expect nothing less here.
Houston @ Cincinnati
Pick: Under 64.5
Will he or won?t he is the question for both Houston head coach Tom Herman and Cincinnati head coach Tommy Tuberville. The ?he? is Cougars quarterback Greg Ward Jr. who suffered a minor shoulder injury in Houston?s season-opening victory over Oklahoma. Ward did not play last week as Houston beat up on FCS opponent Lamar, 42-0. The Cougars quarterback, one of just two players to rush for over 1,000 yards and throw for more than 2,000 last season, has practiced and, for all intents and purposes, appears that he will start on Thursday night.
Tuberville and the Bearcats have faced Ward in each of the last three seasons. Last year, the Cougars beat Cincinnati 33-30 on its way to capturing the American Athletic Conference title. The previous two seasons though, it was the Bearcats that got the best of Houston. Tuberville is hoping that his squad is up to the task.
Cincinnati beat Purdue last Saturday, its first win over a Big Ten opponent on the road in 59 years. The Bearcats will have a slight advantage playing at home in Nippert Stadium. Tuberville?s offense will rely on sophomore quarterback Hayden Moore, who has thrown for 510 yards and five touchdowns in two games. The running game is solid too, with Tion Green (150 yards) and Mike Boone (113) leading the charge.
The Cougars, the first Top 10 team to visit Cincinnati since West Virginia back in 2007, are well-balanced on offense averaging 225 yards passing and 235 on the ground. What makes Houston a College Football Playoff contender is its defense, likely the best in the AAC. Cincinnati is another step in the Cougars quest to qualify for the CFP as a Group of Five representative. Any loss along the way will eliminate Herman?s squad from contention.
In the Sights, Saturday NCAA?
I noted above how unusual this Saturday board is for today?s theme because there are a multitude of games that fit the pattern. In each of these there is a favorite that will absolutely take the game seriously, and we get the bonus in all four that this time the underdog is not likely to throw their best efforts into the fray. Here is the day that many of you will have been looking for ? the chance for your store to profile you are a ?square? early in the season, just one of those recreational guys that likes to bet big chalk because they don?t really understand the nuances of handicapping.
Instead of narrowing the list, I will let them fly?
#144 Kansas State (2:30 Eastern; note the time change). The Wildcats made a good account of themselves at Stanford, the defense playing quite well after needing a couple of series to get into their flow. That unit gets a major upgrade with the return of safety Dante Barnett, much like I believe the offense benefits from the return of QB Jesse Ertz, who will be much better than he was in the opener now that he has that game vs. a tough Cardinal defense under his belt, an outing in which he was also limited by leg cramps. There is no reason for State to not bring the full focus here ? there have been two weeks off to prepare, and on deck is lowly Missouri State, a far lesser opponent than FAU. Meanwhile the Owls only show up for a paycheck ? they threw their best efforts into that regional battle vs. Miami last week, a big one for them because of how many local kids are on the roster, and instead of chasing in the second half will hold back for next week?s home game vs. Ball State, when there is a legitimate chance to win.
#160 Kentucky (4:00 Eastern; note the time change). There might not be a coach anywhere this week that needs not just a win, but a big win, more than Mark Stoops. Hence no chance of taking New Mexico State lightly, and in this instance I expect little from the Aggies. That rally to beat rival New Mexico last week used up a lot of energy and emotion, and note that they have not responded well after facing the Lobos ? the fifth-year seniors are 0-4 SU and ATS in the ensuing game, losing to the spread by 44.5 points in the process. Having beaten New Mexico last week, and with the conference opener at Troy on deck, they have little reason to show much here.
#178 N. C. State (6:00 Eastern). The Wolfpack have a chance to vent some frustrations after their loss at East Carolina, and they are entitled to do it for the full 60 minutes here, with a bye week on deck. With Dave Doeren 13-7 ATS laying double figures (6-3 at State), we can see that he does not mind going for the jugular in such a setting. Meanwhile the Monarchs are another underdog that won?t bring their best ? there is a home conference game vs. UTSA next week that they have a legitimate chance to win, so staying fresh and healthy for that one is more important than chasing this one from behind.
#212 Washington State (2:00 Eastern; note the time change). Plenty enough has been said about the expected focus from the Cougars, but consider how disinterested the Vandals could be if this breaks open early. They are in their second of three straight road games, and next week?s trip to UNLV offers them the best opportunity to win a game. Paul Petrino will likely adjust his player rotation towards that purpose, rather than getting the best possible scoreboard result here in a game his team has little chance to win.
So there we have it ? four big favorites that will take these weak opponents seriously, and in this instance a strong case can be made that none of the four underdogs will produce their best effort.
